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“I’m expecting the bullion banks to rally gold …”
ever the conspiracy theorist as if there is some coordinated controlled synced-up manipulation going on between alleged ‘bullion’ banks. You drink too much of the King World News KoolAid.
So I guess your call on the miners putting in a final bottom back in March will be wrong?
It was never my call that the miners have made a final bottom. You have me confused with someone else. I’ve been calling for a bankruptcy phase for months and months.
No, here’s what you said “I’m going on the record and calling an official bottom in the miners.” This was in March. I’m not confused. You go back and forth. I do recall you predicting the bankruptcy phase as well.
You raise a good point. Whether or not he called the bottom in March, I still see no evidence that SMT, and 99.9% of other newsletters could beat dollar cost averaging into plain old S & P index fund over the long haul. I’d bet a lot of burritos that if I were to dollar cost average into SPX index fund over the next 5 years I would beat SMT over that 5 year time period….but I’ll shut up now and sign into my brokerage account and start dollar cost averaging today. 🙂
I’ll take that bet because you will get caught in the 7 year cycle low using that method.
Tom,
We did get an intermediate cycle bottom in March, but as you well know I’ve always said it was just a bear market rally. The final low won’t have any chance of forming until gold hits at least 1050. I’ve been saying that for over a year.
We have a case of you hearing what you want to hear, not what I actually said.
Gary:
I know how you are. You do make some good calls, I won’t deny that. But, you in fact declared in March the absolute bottom in miners. I even bugged you about it afterwards to which you replied “so far, I’m standing by my prediction unless they make a lower low.”
I don’t try to nit pick you often because I enjoy the blog. But, it looks like they are making lower lows albeit a few reversals today in some key names.
Show me where I said that was a final bottom. I don’t think I have ever used the phrase :I stand by my call”. you are clearly making stuff up as you go.
Here is my article in March. As you will see all the way through I said my prefered scenario was the bearish one with just another bear market rally.
“And yes I know, my expectation has been for a counter trend move early in the year followed by one more drop into a three year cycle low in the summer or early fall. And that does still remain the most likely scenario.”
“To begin with my preferred scenario is still the bearish one where gold rallies just far enough to break its cycle trend line and then continues down into an ICL in the normal timing band for that event (still 5-6 weeks away). ”
“So a word of caution, I don’t want to get everyone’s hopes up too much, and definitely do not start buying call options willy-nilly, as the bear scenario is still by far the most likely outcome. ”
So don’t give me anymore crap about calling the final bottom. I clearly said the bear caase was the most likely outcome and as it turns out it was.
Looks like the bounce was even breifer than I expected. Now headed to 1131.
There we go. Well analyzed and predicted mr. Savage. I sold all my miners a few days ago, based on your analysis and several other observations (euro versus dollar looking like its going off a cliff, several miners in my portfolio clearly topping, latest COT report, and some ). Not an easy decision though. Your remarks on ‘losing your sanity’especially rang a bell with me. I don’t mind if my bullion is temporarily 20% lower, but the price action in miners can be truly nerve-wrecking. Look for instance at Teranga, extremely cheap and good quality miner, but 8% lower now.. 🙁
nothing out there.. time for rock climbing
No doubt…..Gary has scripted the gold price action as good as anyone. That was a professional call on the bankruptcy cycle.
I appreciate your free advice.
Mahalo, Mark
Another Fed save of the “markets”. Must be nice to be an insider and know when they are going to finally let the Titanic sink.
Yes, it would be nice to be like David Tepper, and know in advance exactly when the rug will get pulled out from under the equity markets. 😉
What an absolute casino. The sidelines feel good. I’ll wait until silver plunges below $14 before adding more physical.
Tom,
I read Gary’s postings on this blog “like the Bible” for the past year. and I’ve been a casual reader of Gary’s work since 2009.
Gary HAS never stated an absolute bottom in the miners in March of this year.
Gary’s short term calls are not always perfect, but his longer term calls are much appreciated.
I want to get into the Miners when they take a dive and I am absolutely going to PAY Gary a one year membership when that time comes. His yearly subscription price is quite fair in my opinion.
Many lost a lot of profit by not getting out in 2011 and even more early in 2013 by listening to the wrong crowd. I for one am going with Gary this time.