As I noted in the recent portfolio update all of the SMT portfolio’s except currencies are in cash right now. And based in large part on this weeks COT report I’m jettisoning all my previous expectations until I see how this next week plays out. I explain in depth in the weekend report, but in short I think the Fed may have aborted the rest of the move into the intermediate cycle low in the stock market, and there is a possiblity that gold may put in a slightly shortened ICL next week. 

Weekend report for premium subscribers.


  1. Jay

    I read that large speculators in e-mini S&P are shortest since June of 2012. I take it you’re expecting Friday’s squeeze to continue.

    1. Crawford

      IMO, we will test 2040 one more time before testing the highs again. Greeks will not go for the deal.

    2. gary Post author

      Maybe so. Yellen wants the market going up for the Humphrey Hawkins speech.

  2. Stefan

    Finland says OXI/No to the current 3rd debt-plan from Gteece, supported by Germany … half of the eurogroup supportsFinlands standpoint at the moment, exciting day 🙂

    I see a correction to 1820-1720 for S&P 500. If I stretch it maybe 1600 in 6months.

    1. Crawford


      On the short side, if we were to lose 2040, we’ll probably see an elevator down move to the next stop at about 2009. Under that, and we’re in a serous correction.

  3. Li

    Oil looks like it could make another low while US equity markets look like they have been “saved”.

  4. Bob UK

    The Germans are ‘offering’ the Greeks terms tonight that no Greek could ever accept.

    As things stood on Friday I envisaged the conventional markets soaring on Monday and into the coming week on a Greek deal. Now, tonight, the Greek deal is 50 50.

    I am no expert on gold or silver but I the miner I watch to see where the prices might go, Fresnillo, started going up on Thurs and Friday.

  5. Stefan

    Haha Hollywood could not have done it better , what performance. 5min before stockmarket open, the SVT News interrupted an interview to announce “We have a deal with Greece”

    C’mon it feels rigged to the max and no, no problems is solved they are kicking the can down the road, creating a fund with 50billion euros from european taxpayers …It would take decades for Greece to reform their system, it’s very inefficient with alot of bureaucracy.

    1. Roland Leung

      What if the market goes down again after Wed? Are you compensating us for the loss if we listen to you to buy now?

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