27 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. MuffinTop

    My thoughts exactly but how many of us will have the ‘cojones’ to pull the trigger..?
    We are (me thinks) days away from a new low in the Miners which is already creating a divergence in my technical indicators and that ‘ladies’, with all the evidence that’s been presented before you, makes for one Hell of a set-up! I’m like a Goddamn cheerleader right now, haha!

  2. Cooloser

    I’m in miners up to my bicep and I’m content to ride the somebitch straight into the gates of hell. In fact, the best investment I’ve made in the last 5 years has been the physical metal. $18.5 trillion in U.S. debt and growing everyday, zero interest rates going on 6 years now and a Fed tippy-toeing to raise them a 0.25% and people are content to think this is a real recovery? No chance in hell.

  3. gary Post author

    Today is a perfect example of why I keep saying you can’t short the stock market. It’s not a free market. I don’t know how much longer the interventions will be able to keep it propped up but ultimately this experiment in market manipulation is going to cause a crash.

    1. Paul

      Yes, the market is getting closer to a good crash, but it has been a pretty good money making machine this year. I believe the S&P was rarely down more than 3 days running…all you had to do was buy in every third day, get out, and then repeat. Why even think about gold when the easy money was right in your face? To those who do not know or are squeamish, stocks like precious metals can be equated to ho’s, to be used, not fallen in love with…

  4. Jay

    The problem is that no matter how good the setup looks, the bounce just ain’t happening. US Dollar index up on the ISM news and Gold not liking it!

  5. chad

    Compare this situation to March 2013 when these same contrary conditions were present. GDX had fallen 35% from its October high of $54 and rested at $35, deeply oversold. GDX went on to shed another 40% of value until the intermediate bottom 4 months later in July with nary a bounce of any significance over that span. Now we have a dollar which appears to be breaking higher out of a bull flag. Things could get much uglier than you may be ready for.

    1. gary Post author

      Actually not the same.

      The COT wasn’t even close to current levels.
      Sentiment was at 33% bulls. It’s currently at 12%.
      Support had not broken yet in March of 2013. It has broken now.
      No bloodbath phase or spike in volume on NUGT in spring of 2013. We have both here in 2015.
      We weren’t late in the intermediate cycle in 2013. Gold is 20 weeks into the intermediate cycle now.

      This is always how it is at intermediate turning points. Traders just automatically assume that the trend will continue indefinitely. It’s why chartists never catch these bottoms. The charts always look like they are going lower. Heck if one could actually make money with charts then every chartist would be a billionaire. In order to make the big bucks you have to buy when everyone else is bearish and sell when everyone else is bullish. Then have the courage to hang on to your position if you are a little early. At 12% bulls I think it’s safe to say that everyone else is bearish.

      John Paulson was early. He made billions.
      Micheal Burry was early. He made billions.
      Greg Lippman, Steve Eisman were early.

      1. Braden

        Well said. The real money is in big contrarian bets before the herd.

        You can make a lot of money trend riding as well though and it pays the bills 😉

      2. Jay

        The people you mentioned didn’t make billions speculating on metals or mining stocks. I don’t see them racing to buy GDX and Gold today either.

        1. bill

          You’re either ignorant to what he was using as an example or just plain dumb and should not be trading anything but baseball cards….

  6. Shad

    Good thoughts Gary.

    We are getting close to seeing which of the 2 scenarios will play out:

    1) Dollar pulls back from here down to support at 94 over the next month, and commodities get their bounce
    2) Dollar strengthens even more, crushing commodities down to the major lows

    I tend to favor scenario #1 because the weaker jobs report will marinate over the next 2 days and Fridays jobs report may start the decline in the USD.

    Good luck to all as we are teetering on the brink of a breakout or a breakdown.

  7. Braden

    I predict a 3-5% move lower in GDX tomorrow to wash out a few folks…. then a sharp reversal and a 25-30% move high into the end of August from there.

    1. Jay

      I hope we don’t see that big a bloodbath first, but given that the trend is “down until it isn’t” your prediction would not surprise me.

  8. Bill in Tokyo

    We all have balls, but few have brains.

    And a few are lucky, and most are not.

    There is a calmer, safer method to ride GDX up, if it goes up: just wait for a reversal.

    There are weeks and weeks of uptrend ahead of us. No need to panic.

    I calmly sit here beside a river, chewing on a glade of grass, taking in all the beauty of nature,
    … with my cocked Colt Python 357 Magnum’s barrel firmly in the throat of GDX.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Just a figure of speech. I’m a man of peace.

      I used to follow GDXJ a lot, but now find that the price action in GDX is more clear.

      Right now I’m waiting for a) GDX’s MACD (I use PPO) to cross, b) price to break out, and c) price to cross above the 13d EMA (Elder Impulse System).

      I actually prefer to see all this happen, and then a pullback (dip), and then a continuation of the new trend. If GDX doesn’t melt up, we should see that easily on a 1 hr chart.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        fyi a pullback after the bottom makes a higher low, thus confirming a new trend, as opposed to a pop (and drop).

        1. Bill in Tokyo

          Just a reminder too that, although Gary’s analysis is great and under normal circumstances it would be a simple slam dunk – there is a HUGE seller out there, and there is the very real possibility that they are NOT done selling yet. They must have an agenda, a target, and a strategy. They are probably very smart, smarter than any of us, and are extremely lethal. So if one wants to survive, when a Great White is in the water, its better to either get out of the water, or sit in a cage and wait for the right moment to strike. To buy now is akin to feeding the shark, me thinks.

          1. Carl V

            I guess this is the difference between greed and wisdom, or greed and patience. Nice post.

  9. jack

    gold price reaches the point for another raid. expect to be down $30 tonight. We have only a month away from total collapse. the manipulation becomes extreme. I don’t see any significant bounce from now on like before.

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