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Or we have a weak rally today and halfway through tomorrow, resetting RSI a bit so we continue down into next week. I don’t know, Gary. I agree with you about the very negative sentiment and hate to try to capture the last bit of profit on the downside, but it has had many chances for reversal short squeezes but hasn’t done it.
I’m sure you’ve seen the stats that hedge funds are net short of gold for the 1st time since 2006 … there is certainly the possibility of a face-ripper rally sooner than later
The other scenario that I didn’t draw in is that metals start to rally today and catch all the shorts still hanging on for the final move to 1030 in a huge short squeeze. If the miners can close at the top of the range today this scenario becomes a real possibility.
Or the other possibility.
From Rumbus1
http://forum.rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/sc-1453.png
Well, there’s a 50% chance Rumbus1 is right, and also a 50% chance he is wrong. 😉 At least I’m not delusional….meaning that I admit I know nothing 🙂
It’s a higher chance than that because he’s been calling for the PM complex to meltdown for years rather than others trying to pick a bottom all the way down.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/32172/wednesday-reporta-chartology-review-of-gold-silver-and-the-hui
I think the commodity complex has bottomed. I’m watching Natgas to lead the way higher!
possibilities are endless
are all miners run by dumber
Gary, I think you meant 1070 (not 1171) on your chart, in blue.
Jay’s got it right – none of us know anything – best to sit and wait, and respond when the trend changes.
That seller out there is so large and so impactful, what will happen if they get caught in a short squeeze? They must have thought of that … I wonder what they’re thinking. This is like the 10th time they’ve pulled the rug out, so they have a method. A perfect shorting machine.
It’s not a Godzilla … nor a Great White.
It’s a Kraken.
IBB/XBI way down, as Gary thought.
The Kraken lurks deep in the ocean – unseen, unheard – waiting, waiting, waiting – and then strikes without warning – with swift and complete total destruction – leaving no survivors and no trace behind.
Even with TA and cycles and COT and physical demand and sentiment all on one side, the Kraken will win. Have no doubt.
Xon is 65 bucks still – those genetically modified apples are clearly big business 🙂
RIG up 12% today. TCK up 5%. Big moves in commodity related resource stocks.
Forgot to say, I am hoping that much of RIG’s increase today was down to short covering due to yesterday’s good results…
Good article in The Telegraph here:
‘Saudi Arabia may go broke before the US oil industry buckles’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html
Sure, HUI could get cut in half quickly from here. But that would mean we’d be in a global deflationary bust that would tank all other markets and send UUP and TLT to the moon. I got lucky and tripled down on my December IBB put position yesterday on that phony bounce.
You heard of Plunger’s “The Horror”? Read the commenter “contrarianadvisor” on Seeking Alpha. His projections will truly terrify you.
IBB is in bull market
for no reason
Dan, link please, can’t find it on Seeking Alfa, thanks.
Gary,
Really appreciate your insights. Check out this link to the U.S. Mint…
http://catalog.usmint.gov/coin-programs/american-eagle-coins/?cc_mmc=infosite-_-campaign-_-precious+metals+campaign-_-american+eagle+coins&_ga=1.88548763.1462784847.1438947788
…they are selling new gold coins between 1350 and 1460. That’s quite a premium and perhaps some proof that the rigged COMEX paper price is a joke.