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Can you give a quick update on oil , this is getting ridiculous !
I’m pretty confident oil is moving down into a 3 year cycle low. One can buy anywhere in this area. By this time next year I expect oil will be at or above $70.
Gary — Please define “secondary correction.” Thanks.
Secondary correction is Dow Theory terminology for an intermediate cycle low. In order to correctly identify a secondary correction you need an understanding of cycle theory. This is why many analysts incorrectly assume the last secondary correction was back in Oct. They assume that the markets are a long way from signalling a DT sell signal when in fact they are hanging on the edge of the precipice right now.
I think this is it.
GDX is collapsing! Thankfully, I took most of it off the table this morning at the open!
Miners just can’t win can they? Most hated asset class in recent history.
Gay, Take your profits and put it in FIT, what I am thinking to do.
Sorry meant to say Jay
Okay, glad you clarified that! 🙂 GDX may be done collapsing now that Gold found a bid again.
Gary, numpty question – if we are about to experience a massive correction in the markets then why would we be buying energy/oil stocks here? Surely in such a correction energy stocks would be taken down further also?
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CURRENCIES&p=m1
Gary,
Gold up but silver down meaningfully.
NUGT is actually down 6% with gold up. Even UGLD is only up 1% ..>What gives?!
Guess there are no safe vehicles to go long gold now in this stock whoosh down?
What is yoru recommendation Hold longs although NUGT is sinking today?
There will be a move into a daily cycle low at some point but the intermediate cycle still has a long way to go. Don’t worry about short term corrections. Just hang on for the big money and sell when gold tags the 100 week moving average.
Got it. The 100 week moving avg for gold at $1200 now or more?
Why are the Biotech stocks NOT falling much???!!
Market doing so lousy it is dragging GDX down with it, even though Gold up….still glad I dumped most of my GDX on the open and didn’t buy any back yet.
What a nervous, lousy, quiet and bad trading day! No big thing happen yet! Hope bigger things will happen next Monday. Terrible trading day!
Gary,
What do you think of the oil? I heard you saying oil is getting in to the final blood bath phase. Do you think cycle has bottomed and time to go long on select oil stocks?
I expect oil will put in a long term bottom next week.
In big stock market corrections everything gets sold. The fundamentals must be followed: Fed will not raise rates, stocks will nonetheless go into bear market and Fed will go back to money printing, to save the only thing that they had going. the stock market. This will confirm Fed failure and gold and gold stocks will be the natural winners. Speculation of what investors are going to do on the daily basis is chasing irrational behavior. Stick to fundamentals!
The day I listen and trade with fundamentals vs technicals is the day I have the desire to burn money. Give me a break!
I agree! If you want to burn money, real fast, then go and trade with fundamentals!
Gary, thank you for your views many of which are very courageous on such an open platform. You could you please tell me your thoughts on the possibility of precious metals getting caught up in the down draft of margin call obligations and them being easiest liquidity options for those institutions that maybe caught up in that if selling continues in equity markets? Still nervous about this rally have to say.
The pattern has been for liquidity to move out of stocks and into the only two things that are going up and that is gold and bonds.
Devil’s Advocate View: The Fed’s Not Dead. They will sweep in before long and stop the stocks from falling too deep–JUST LIKE THEY DID IN OCTOBER 2014 in a SHARP “V” REVERSAL–.
Hence, the bears that have wet dreams of Dow going under 15,000, etc etc etc say dreams ar emade of this.
The Fed’s Not Dead. All it takes is one or both of these statements: “In light of current disinflation and market volatility, the committee has decided to leave rates intact until 2016 when the committee will re-assess the ….”
–AND/OR–
“It is the committee’s judgment that current financial circumstances …(bla bla bla) …and that is why the committee will start a new round of QE (La La La La La)”
Get it? Got it? OK.
Gary, Would you care to comment on this point of view?: The cracking of the US equity market is definitely a positive for the precious metals sector but it does not tell us if the sector has bottomed. Gold has taken out $1150/oz for now and has potential upside to $1175. Given the strong overhead resistance we should expect a pullback or some consolidation of recent gains. Keep an eye on the miners as they tend to lead the metals. The reversal in the miners today is an early warning signal that the rebound could be nearing its end.