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So…dollar to decline vs. yen? Therefore weak dollar=stronger metal prices?
Now you are on to something! Its all about currencies, as far as I am concerned.
JPY has always been a good indicator of risk-on and risk-off sentiment trading in stock and commodity markets. Its never been about inflation indicator such as CRB index.
You have brought up a very superb points , thanks for the post.
Maybe, but that is one ugly weekly candle.
Maybe, but I tend to view those kind of candles as bearish if they appear after a long uptrend. When they occur at the bottom of a long decline they often just signal some indecision before the trend reverses.
So you think the Deflation is now behind us???….
Felix.
This board seems very quiet…either a lot of traders are away on vacation or got margined out last week? Just wondering.
Here is a chartists view of the state of precious metals. In his opinion: No deflation is not over!!
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article52031.html
I think Rambus is too bearish, too late in a very long bear market. Now is the time to start looking in the other direction instead of continuing to press the downside.
At major bottoms the charts always look bearish, and at major tops they always look bullish. That’s why chartists never catch these turns.
A month ago when everyone was bullish I was already warning of a top and an impending market crash here and here.
“very long bear market”
Here is chart of gold for the last 100 years.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
1920-1930 bull
1930-1970 bear
1970-1980 bull
1980-2000 bear
2000-2011 bull
2011-? Really! 5 years is a long bear market
If you draw a trend line from the low around 1970 through the 2000 low, could we possibly have a low between $600-$800. Maybe 2017-2018?
Seriously many analysts were calling for market crashes over a year ago. Armstrong(i know he’s not your favourite). Has been calling for a crash 2015.75 for years. They say charts never lie!
Sorry correction we have actually been a bear market for four years, is that long?
Keep in mind you are talking secular bear markets. Even in a secular bear market there are cyclical bull trends. I don’t believe gold is in a secular bear market. Let’s face it, it hasn’t even dropped below the last C-wave top at 1030 yet. That doesn’t sound like a long term bear market to me.
But if you look at it through another lense the junior mining stocks are down 90%. That is one of the most destructive bear markets in history and very very long in the tooth. A bear market of that magnitude should spawn one of the greatest bull markets the world will ever see.
Gary is correct. Gold has been in an “interim bear market”, we can argue if its bottom has been reached yet, but the uptrend will resume in gold.
Yea sure it will resume the uptrend, as all markets do, my point is we are potentially a long way off the bottom. My point of showing the 100 year chart, was to indicate that the bear markets in gold have been longer than the bull in every instance. This current bear rally in gold, imo, could be described weak at best. More short covering than safe haven rally. Its already failed at $1160, and the charts show is heading down below $1100. A three day rally in oil doesn’t indicate an end to four years of deflationary pressures. It’s unrealistic, its a blip if you look at the five year chart. I guess if you call “potential” bottom every time there is a rally, you can eventually say “I called the bottom of the bear market!!”, ignoring the fact you have called it countless times before.
I’m pressing my biotech shorts, a further decline in the general markets seems more likely, precious metals are tough to gauge here. But I suspect a washout to single digits on GDX is still in order.
Rick Rule and Jordan Roy-Byrne is very bearish. I concur with Gary on the pm part, I’ve loaded up with miners like yamana, timmins etc.
Waiting for a bear rally to 1250 atleast
Stefan
Jordan RB has been a perma bull and now he is turning bearish in the end of the game? He is a bit wet behind the lips and a kid, no experience.
Rick Rule? Same thing, and a peddler and a fraud. Dont listen to him and his criminal twin what’s his name.
Loaded GDX with a stop at the day’s low. Let’s see how it goes.