22 thoughts on “LARGEST ATTACK YET?

  1. gary Post author

    This one could go either way. So far the attack on gold has failed completely and probably cost the manipulators millions. On the other hand the attack on silver has been successful so it’s anyones guess as to what will happen tomorrow if we get another intervention when the FOMC minutes are released.

    1. gary Post author

      If it was about the dollar then no way gold would have made new lows as the dollar hasn’t made new highs.

      1. ken

        Gary – I have picked up a fair amount of metal stock and GLD – are you recommending holding this now?

        1. gary Post author

          Here’s the thing. I have no way of telling whether another attack tomorrow will succeed in breaking the intermediate rally and we end up having another daily cycle down to 1030 before another ICL forms.

          But I do think even if they manage to break the rally tomorrow it will just come back even stronger once 1030 is tested, for the simple reason that gold isn’t meant to go down naturally. The longer they force it to do something it’s not meant to do the more violent the rally will be when gold breaks free of the manipulation.

          So for myself I’m going to hold on and if I have to weather anther attack and drop to 1030, so be it. Once we come out the other side the rally will just be all that more powerful.

  2. Bob UK

    OK, numpty question here – is it possibel that these dumps are people who are illiquid and who need to raise cash in a hurry to meet margin calls?

    Fascinating though isn’t it – what is this now, the 4th or 5th big attempt to knock down the PMs this month?

    1. gary Post author

      The problem with that scenario is that gold isn’t going down so no one is getting margin calls. And no one would sell into the premarket where there is no volume. You would just be asking to lose more money than you had to. Even with a margin call you have to the end of the day to meet the call so the correct strategy would be to unload gradually over the course of the day.

      No these are blatant attempts to run stops and trigger a selling panic.

  3. Don

    Gary, last week you posted some charts of the S&P in a breakdown scenario. No sign of that happening, at least not yet. What do you believe is the probability of a breakdown occurring in the next few weeks?

    1. gary Post author

      Like I said last week we needed last week to be a big down week to pop the Fed confidence bubble. The massive intervention on Wednesday rescued the market and pushed everything back again. Maybe it now occurs in Oct. or maybe they have successfully avoided the crash and pushed it out to spring. It’s hard to say in these unatural and heavily manipulated markets.

      At some point the Fed confidence bubble will pop, but as of now we lost the chance to do it last week.

  4. Dan

    Wow, I just heard Denver Dave say “gold and silver are not commodities, they are monetary metals”. Sentiment like this just proves we have a ways to go yet before the bottom. Just look at the copper chart, it is ready for a cliff dive. I’ll buy silver with both hands and feet when it gets to single digits.

  5. MuffinBottom

    “attack” ? sounds a little personal and a lot paranoid

    the fact of the matter is that gold was flat while silver got whacked along with other base metals

  6. bob davis

    “….gold isn’t meant to go down naturally..” wow what does that mean. Is gold a super unique singular market. Nope its a commodity, and in a deflationary environment, commodities fall. Easy and simplistic to blame a conspiracy driven, idea that the elite cause every fall. Markets go up and down, gold is no exception.

  7. MuffinTop

    Don’t be so naive Bobby D 🙂 The Fed is printing trillions of dollars in paper currency in order to manipulate the markets and divert a disaster. How is that not gonna spill over onto pretty much everything else?! If Gold was allowed to behave ‘naturally’ it would be bouncing around the $5000 mark and guys like Peter Schiff would lose their shit! Ha!

    1. bob davis

      Sure you are entitled to believe that if you like. Its an easy explanation why gold has declined, manipulation!!. Careful branding the word nievity around, you might be right you might be wrong. Other analysts saw a top in gold at $1800 and predicted a fall to $1000, where they working for the “manipulators”? I suggest you have a look at Martin Armstrong’s website, I wouldn’t preach to you on what to believe. But you are doing yourself a disservice, if you don’t at least look at other theories than manipulation.

  8. zkotpen

    @ bob davis

    And the crazy thing is, when you look at the historical gold chart, and also the historical CRB since the 18th century, it’s characterized by roughly one decade of strong advance, followed by two decades of correction of the overshoot.

    The century long bull market in gold (1913-2011) and the CRB (1897-2008) needs to correct, and that could take us into the 2020’s — even 2030.

    The current chart is shaping up like the late March to early April, 2013, time frame. A good fibonacci prediction for the next move down would be $100 from the peak, which either occurred last Thursday, or it’s coming very soon — I do think I will get out of my LONG GDX position profitably, though that’s not certain. The move up in gold, at least, still looks incomplete.

    And we can always expect 1-3 big reversals in the Tuesday-Friday of any Fed meeting/minutes week.

    After the drop to the 1030 area, I’m looking for an intermediate degree rally, followed by another move down below 1000 — $925-975. Then a multi-year rally, maybe topping out around 1300 to 1345 — the area of the July, 2014, and January, 2015, peaks.

    Mine gold — print dollars — what’s the difference?

    1. Petro

      …”Mine gold — print dollars — what’s the difference?”….

      Absolutely nothing!

      -One (gold) needs big query and mining machinery which spent gazillions of BTUs of energy, high cost of labour (some of it highly specialized) and environmental damage and, costs “roughly” from $800 – $1500 of today’s currency units to be made available to you and others in the form of eagles and maples…

      -The other (dollar) needs Yellen’s, Dimon’s, Blankfein’s, Summers’ and Co./Inc. finger to move from scratching their arse – to pressing the keyboard buttons on what they so “meaningfully” call “balance sheet”….

      Absolutely no difference!
      You seem to have a pretty good handle on understanding this….

      be well,

      Petro

  9. zkotpen

    @ bob davis

    So basically, I’m agreeing with you — if the market goes up for 10 years, then corrects for 20 — most of the time, people who want that market to go up are going to be unhappy.

    I see that all the time in real life, round the world, in markets where sellers do not distinguish their products from those of other sellers — commodities or like commodities (“local crafts”) — they’re in a persistent bear market, that gets a boost every now and again due to forces clearly beyond their control. They’re in a state of hope and awe and glory 1/3 of the time, complaining — about the government, the system, and so on — 2/3 of the time.

  10. Tom

    all over the place again here. Metals were supposed to be up this week and the next 4 to 6 weeks. If not, lets blame it on the gold “attack” at night and the Fed that “props up” the market.

  11. gary Post author

    Here’s the thing. Have you ever seen shortages in the oil market? Copper market? Grains? No of course not. Why? Because price automatically adjusts to meet demand.

    Gold went through a secular bear market from 1980 to 2001. Not once do I ever recall seeing a shortage. Not once did the mint ever run out of silver coins. Duirng the begnning of the bull market from 2001 to 2007 not once did I ever see a shortage. Why? Because price rose naturally as demand increased and the market stayed in equilibrium. not once did i ever see 10,000 -20,000 contracts dumped in the middle of the night at any time from 2001 to 2013.

    But ever since 2013 these kind of events have happend on a regular basis when they never occurred before. And now we regularly see shortages, especially in the silver market. Shortages that are impossible in a free market and never happened prior to 2013 and never occur in any other market.

    How is that possible I ask? In a natural and free market it should be impossible to create a shortage.

  12. Jonathan

    OT
    Seems to me the oil won’t be able to find a bottom until 2 things happen: 1) specs longs give up, there are still too many of them, and 2) producers give up, there are still too many rigs and too much production.
    If this is indeed the case, then good luck to the dinosaur energy companies, and good luck to the S&P earnings.

Comments are closed.