18 thoughts on “WEEKLY AND MONTHLY DIVERGENCES ARE BUILDING”

  3. zkotpen

    #Stefan

    I would give serious consideration to the century-long chart for gold since the beginning of the Fed (1913). Here’s most of it:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-08/here-s-a-few-facts-and-charts-that-gold-bugs-might-not-like

    That chart would make the 1970s supercycle wave 3, and the 2000s supercycle wave 5, of grand super cycle wave 1. The move from $20 to $35 was supercycle 1. That would make the 2010’s grand supercycle wave 2, NOT cycle wave 4, as gold bugs wish to believe.

    In the past 100 years, the price of gold has significantly outpaced inflation, in USD terms, by more than two to one (PoG up 54x, CPI up 24x in that period, based on $1116 gold, and June, 2015, CPI).

    I recommend keeping your mind open to the possibility that gold will have five waves down, not ABC three waves. I believe the ABC scenario was invalidated by the move below the November, 2014, low.

    Either way, the next move down should be five waves, and I like the target of 1033.

    The subsequent move up will either take on a wave 4 character one degree higher than the current wave 4 (my preferred count), or an impulse (as implied by your chart).

    Cheers!

  5. felix

    Gary, you said you were expecting a decline in the stock mrkt wedsney or thursday at late, to open a crash fase for the market for the next 2/3 weeks. right?? today is friday, no decline yet happened. What do you think about??? Are you changing your view now, or not?
    Thanks.

    Felix.

  8. Jonathan

    Things are changing quickly. The 2015 EPS (SPX) will have negative growth, the first time in this entire bull market.

      1. Bud fox

        Each QE has less effectiveness as the previous one.
        Politically, QE4 is DOA.

        They are better off mailing $2000 checks to every tax payer.
        That WILL kick start inflation.

    1. gary Post author

      Yes I’m pretty sure gold has completed an intermediate cycle bottom. A slim chance that it could be a final bear market bottom, but for that scenario we need the stock market to move down into the 7 YCL and trigger QE4. As of right now it looks like the Fed has successfully delayed the move down again. It’s tough to fight an opponenet with a printing press.

  10. JohnWilkinson

    Simple question: how wrong could it be to avoid the entire gold sector for some time to come? Answer: not wrong. Reason: the deflationary pulse is moving across the world, and the belief that it has already run it’s course is just wishful thinking. Evidence: it is rarely if ever the case that a massive devaluation like China’s is not a massive cry for help. US stocks have probably only just given the first hints of trouble.

    Avoid all assets and stay in dollars. Even if you hate US Dollars, stay in them for now. Ask yourself: when was the last time the dollar collapsed against gold? It’s been a while. And the last time, in 2011, it only lasted a short while. You lost nothing by staying in dollars.

    JW

    2. Jay

      My point is nobody really knows what the dollar will do….and those like Schiff that claimed to know were proven incredibly wrong.

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