42 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY”

  1. Jorgy

    Your lips to God’s ears G-Money… After a four year cyclical bear it’s time for the secular bull market to resume after the G-20 have agreed to destroy their fiat currencies in an effort to maintain the status quo and keep “asset prices” elevated. I can’t wait to see a right translated IC and the massive gains in the 2nd, 3rd and possibly 4th daily cycles as we break the downtrend line and press toward $1350 by December 2015.

  2. Don

    These charts do a good job of showing what a trap the 200 hundred day line can be for those who think it means something. I have found that for commodities, the 200 day line is worse than useless with far too many false signals.

    1. Jay

      Yeah, the 200 DMA for commodities in particular, is a pretty bad line in the sand. Too many traps and head fakes.

  3. pacoquin

    unless.. this is similar to 2011 ?? who knows FED is capable of practically anything. Either this is like 2000 or 2008 market tops.. os this is a fixed and faked move to keep moving up till 2016-17.. which will know by sep-oct.. although I expect new S&P lower low… in other words.. if S&P dont fall much lower than 1845-1820 aprx… if it breaks 1820… then we are in 2000 or 2008.. but so far.. I doubt it very much

  4. pacoquin

    .. but I agree with violent metal rebound… very fast… to fall down again…. most in accordance with mention SP lower low ??? metals up with stocks down.. and opposite… imo

  5. Sloppy Joe

    Gary,
    You had a tweet that mentioned SPX COT showing buying and higher expectations, can you elaborate on that?

    Thanks.

    1. gary Post author

      The stock index COT positions are very bullish. We should get a bottom in Oct. and then the last leg up in this bull market.

  7. MrSu

    Response to Mr. Edge from Gary’s last blog post:

    Gold performs well when “real interest rates” are low to negative.
    http://greshams-law.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/US-Real-Interest-Rates.png

    Example of “real” interest rates:

    “For example, if you are earning 4% interest per year on the savings in your bank account, and inflation is currently 3% per year, then the real interest rate you are receiving is 1% (4% – 3% = 1%). The real value of your savings will only increase by 1% per year, when purchasing power is taken into consideration.”

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/realinterestrate.asp

  8. Frank

    For the SPX, Elliott expects a low very soon that is lower than the recent low. That is wave 5 completing the first wave down. Then we retrace .38 – .62(wave 2) and then fall in a bigger wave 3. That’s the plan. That’s enough.

  10. pacoquin

    by the way tipically Sept hardest month and bottom in October.
    IMO China stillone more leg down but job is almost completed.
    This next bottom in few wks shld match SP lower bottom and both reverse course.
    IMO this has been a setup, like 2011, to continue one more leg up, in long term, to reach real top,
    most probably in 2106-17 ad then, will have another 2000-2007/8 …..

  11. David Silver

    Mr. Savage,

    Been following you here and through the Kereport and have a few questions on your current positions:

    1)  Why your continued bullishness on miners  when their current charts are exhibiting bearish structures such as recent failed highs and failed 50 DMA resistance?

    2) Why your continued bullishness on energy/crude when their current charts are also exhibiting bearish structures such as topping patterns with four failed 50 DMA resistance?

    3) With the US markets also exhibiting another topping pattern don’t you think they will weigh on the energy, crude and miners as they did during the last recent sell off when they start another leg down?

    My money as of Thursday is crude taking a trip to $33 and as of Friday gold to $1025.

    Thank You,

    Silver

    1. gary Post author

      1,
      Bear markets create opportunities. The bigger the bear the bigger the opportunity. The miners have experieinced one of the most destructive bear markets in history. It’s going to create one of the biggest bull markets any of us will ever see.

      2. oil and the CRB are in the timing band for a major 3 year cycle low. Technicals and chartists always miss these major turning points because the charts “always” look bad at bottoms.

  12. Don

    Gary is correct when he says ” The bigger the bear the bigger the opportunity”. Bear markets may seem to be a great time to acquire beaten sown assets although it isn’t quite that simple. For example, is GDX a good buy now at $14 when it could easily lose another 50% and slide to $7 (or lower)? There is no shortage of investors who thought GDX was an absolute steal at $20 and how has that worked for them? The other problem relates to time. How long will it be until GDX hit it’s absolute bottom and then reverses into a sustainable rally?
    The truth is, no one, including Gary, knows for certain when that event will occur. It is conceivable that it may be years before GDX returns to the $20 level.

    It is almost guaranteed that investors with patience and plenty of money (to live on while they wait) , will someday make big money on GDX. That applies to almost any equity based ETF (not a commodity related one that suffers built in roll decay). Buying into individual companies is much more risky thanks to the bankruptcy laws . Shareholders of American coal companies are learning that hard lesson as the common shareholders are being wiped out, one after another. Those who invested in KOL, a coal company ETF, still have a chance for big profits down the road.

  13. Don

    Gary is correct when he says ” The bigger the bear the bigger the opportunity”. Bear markets may seem to be a great time to acquire beaten sown assets although it isn’t quite that simple. For example, is GDX a good buy now at $14 when it could easily lose another 50% and slide to $7 (or lower)? There is no shortage of investors who thought GDX was an absolute steal at $20 and how has that worked for them? The other problem relates to time. How long will it be until GDX hit it’s absolute bottom and then reverses into a sustainable rally?
    The truth is, no one, including Gary, knows for certain when that event will occur. It is conceivable that it may be years before GDX returns to the $20 level.

    It is almost guaranteed that investors with patience and plenty of money (to live on while they wait) , will someday make big money on GDX. That applies to almost any equity based ETF (not a commodity related one that suffers built in roll decay). Buying into individual companies is much more risky thanks to the bankruptcy laws . Shareholders of American coal companies are learning that hard lesson as the common shareholders are being wiped out, one after another. Those who invested in KOL, a coal company ETF, still have a chance for big profits down the road.

  14. Dan

    The coal industry comparison is very good. It has been utterly devastated. The same could easily happen to gold and silver miners. I want to see another flush before buying gold miners for the long term.

    Central bank criminal market levitation in full effect tonight I see.

  15. David Silver

    I agree on the time decay phenomena.

    If Mr. Savage’s trades are mistimed then it could get very costly for instance:
    Take for example UWTI:  http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=uwti
    Crude’s last three intraday lows Feb 14′ and March 14′ are 2.68% apart whereas UWTI’s share price are 23.5% apart! Then if you compare March 14′ to Aug 14′ are 11.25% apart whereas UWTI’s share price are 60.22%!

    Bottom line ETF’s are costly whereas individual stocks carry a constant variable however obviously risky being one dimensional.

    1. gary Post author

      No, no, no. Don’t trade the leveraged funds. The decay will eat you alive unless you time it perfectly.

    1. Tom

      That is what everyone on the is blog has been saying for years…The reality is that more of the same will continue: higher stocks, lower metals.

      2. gary Post author

        “That is what everyone on the is blog has been saying for years”

        Not exactly. I’ve been expecting gold to reach 1030 for more than a year now. $1071 may be close neough.

  17. bob davis

    It seems that the bounce in oil coincided with the bounce off the lows in the stockmarket(chinese, european, US). If the stock markets resume the decline which way will oil and the commodities go?

    1. pacoquin

      IMO… if SP falls to 1840-20… metals will rebound strongly .. and my money is bet on that… will see

      1. bob davis

        I would stay in cash why take a risky bet. What’s to say pms wont get taken down with the stock market.

  18. Don

    When are the markets not a “risky bet”? We have a smoking world wide rally happening today. Every short has a stomach that is ready to throw up. Is it too risky to go long now or is it too risky to go short?

  19. Anthonyo

    Government’s PPT buys repairing the hole left by correction, China bet today? Bet on what? So China caused the US correction, andnow China is causing a 300+ point rally today? Hogwash to both MSM shallow misleadings.

  20. Anthonyo

    Clean Up crew needed to sweep bears and cubs road kill after today’s big PPT blow to bears.
    PPT triumphant and going for the prize.

    After hesitating bears failed to close under Dow 16,000 last week….PPT took the ball and ran with it….using the 3-day weekend as a pivot and a Lens to focus their hit which started with Futures last night…

    Bears has been dealt a severe blow technically today…If Dow closes above 17,000 the correction bear is officially dead. And so are my stock shorts.

    So much for correction going to SPX 1820, 1780 and even 1600. Bears dreams never come true in a market like this.

    I got to hand it to the Fed’s PPT, they did great damage to the bear today.

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