44 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

    1. Ralph Malph

      Gary,

      If you are expecting a right translated DC from the miners, at what point do you expect to see a 1/2 cycle low? Also, the last couple of days has seen a serious rise, do you believe that price will consolidate before the 1/2 cycle low, perhaps even retesting yesterday’s breakout? TIA

      1. gary Post author

        I’m not going to even think about touching my metal positions until sentiment reaches 40-50%. We have a long way to go before that happens.

        1. Ralph Malph

          I don’t think that sentiment is an accurate timing tool. All it does is help traders determine the direction of a move. I believe cycles counts are a better timing tool .

  1. MuffinTop

    Not me baby boy..! In fact, I remember you giving me a bit of a scoff when I mentioned that the Dollar was looking pretty bearish on my charts (a little while back) 🙂

    Anytime you wanna send me that Burrito.. I like mine with extra cheese, haha!

    Ps: If anything, it was probably that ‘Annoying Antonio’ fella who keeps running his mouth off!

    1. gary Post author

      A bloodbath phase is the last 5-7 days of an intermediate cycle decline. They happen in bull and bear markets.

    1. gary Post author

      No idea. The Fed has a printing press. This is why I won’t short the stock market, even though we should still have a lot further down to go before a final 7 YCL.

      1. Paul

        Amen!
        I haven’t touched stocks of any kind since August 5th and not any time soon, either. I like to sleep at night LOL.

  2. Anthonyo

    Blood and bloodbath seem to be favorite words used around here casually when there are neither to be found.

    So, the bull market in the U.S. dollar — and conversely, bear markets in most other currencies — remains intact. This is just a bounce which will reverse itself when the trickling into USD resumes by scared foreign money. No major trend change forthcoming in USD, sorry.

    Again, the long-term trends for precious metals remain down. Expect a short-term bounce to continue, but then the downtrend will resume into a highly probable and very important low in the 4th quarter of this year. As to gold; no it has not bottomed. All you are seeing is a bear market bounce. That too will end soon and give way to a renewed decline that will take gold below $1,000.

    You can put this in your pipe adn smoke it.

      1. Anthonyo

        Dont worry guys, you will get your $5,000 gold later on just not before it dips below $1000 first. Patience grasshopper, patience.

  3. zkotpen

    FOMC is usually good for about 1-3 reversals. We *may* have had the first after yesterday afternoon’s surge, or it may be forthcoming.

    Friday is quadruple witching, and there’s huge open interest in GDX calls with 14.50, 14, and 13.50 strike prices — all of them are at risk, especially those 14 calls… I expect GDX to close the week below 14 as a result of that first reversal.

    In the bullish scenario Gary has outlined, that would lead to reversal #2, probably Monday, producing a dip to re-enter the long trade.

  4. Johan

    Hi Gary,
    I note that you were clearly bullish the USD up until a month or so ago. Why did you suddenly become a bear? I for one believe in your original thesis…

    1. gary Post author

      Because the dollar busted the triangle consolidation pattern and then dropped below the May ICL. That is an indication of a failed intermediate cycle. Failed intermediate cycles usually only occur when the larger 3 year cycle has begun to decline.

  5. David Silver

    It’s the same theme like that in August. It seems US equities, metals and energy are correlated hence the downtrend theme.

    1. David Silver

      I flipped gears at the open and sold my long energy and miners and went short due to the correlation theory.

      Trend line top in Gold took place earlier today (draw previous peaks, clear as dat) with failed breakdowns everywhere in Crude (lower high, 50dma breach, intermediate support failure $54.88)

      What a crazy market nowadays!

      1. Tenyear

        It is likely that the miners are putting in a rounded bottom…lots of chop will happen next 6 months to a year and maybe longer….some miners will go under, some will do better than others, new ones will emerge, etc…Just not much doing in this sector at all. Equities will likely trend down. The Fed has not curbed deflation so another QE is not out of the question.

  6. Frank

    In the stock market, a week ago I called for a Elliott wave 5 down. Well, it was a little early, but looks like it has started now. If true this will bottom below the Aug lows, and prove a much bigger move down is coming.

  7. Tenyear

    Friday afternoon selloffs precede Monday’s big morning selloff…..at least historically. For those of you still needing to get short.

  8. Anthonyo

    Fed bounce in gold continues while stocks tank on the same news.
    Expect gold’s bounce to continue although it failed to break above the old resistance 1140-1142 today and reversed back lower at the close.
    If it can break above 1140, then 1180; it may have a chance at 1200-1250.
    If it gets there that high, it will be a good shorting opportunity.

    Oil is showing it can’t fly as we saw today even when Fed says no rate hike, oil fell hard due to “global uncertainty” in Yellen’s statement.
    How far could gold really fly in its current bounce when oil is falling off its climbing wall.?

  9. Anthonyo

    “This move by the Fed underlies the growing awareness of slower global growth, which will impact earnings, thus a weaker equity market, and continue to dampen demand (industrial metals continue under pressure).
    Gold will have a safe-haven bid, but it may become apparent that “cash” (king in deflation) is the short-term safe haven, which will limit golds upside and may even create selling.”

    By Peter Hug, Kitco Metals Global Trading Director;

  10. Anthonyo

    Bull Trap or Bottom in Gold and Gold Stocks?
    Friday September 18, 2015 15:54
    http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-09-18/Bull-Trap-or-Bottom-in-Gold-and-Gold-Stocks.html

    “The prognosis for Gold is even simpler. Its key resistance and pivot point over the past 12 months is $1155 to $1160. For the bulls, Gold needs to break above that barrier with a few strong weekly closes. If it cannot, then the strength of the past few days will be another false alarm.

    If Gold and gold miners have bottomed then they should explode through upside resistance over the next few weeks. Gold would need to push above $1160 and more importantly, GDXJ would close above resistance at $23-$24. While I do not expect this to occur, it is a scenario we should keep in mind.

    The other scenario is this Fed-induced rebound in precious metals fizzles out and precious metals join global equity markets in a selloff. ”

    — Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

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