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If we hit these levels, how do you plan to capitalize other than miners and energy positions?
Once I think the 7 YCL is finished I will take a position in stocks, possibly biotech, for the run to the bubble phase top.
Depending on your investment outlook of course.. You could also throw some money into a few ‘Dividend Aristocrats’ like Apple, Hershey’s and a shit load of others.. or, if you have balls (or tits) of steel, then an 2X ETF should line your pockets plenty! Just make sure you keep a close eye on it 🙂
Mr. Savage,
So you concur commodities too will drop with the US markets as shown on Friday and bottom then?
The 3 YCL in commodities is due this year. It may have already happened last month and like gold are already starting to reverse in anticipation of a post 7 YCL world.
Thank you for your thoughts.
I have two scenarios:
1) Retest to 8/24 lows then bounce with the aid of the PPT to and fro and eventually to all time highs.
2) Retest to S&P 1772 without the PPT.
Will the gold miners follow the stock market?
They will follow gold.
The last sell off took both the energy and miners equities with it, just look at Friday for an example. I admit Gold has held her own but GDX for some reason suffered as well.
I’m banking the commodity sector will nnot be spared because there won’t be complacency in that sector.
I forgot to mention look at Friday’s GLD, bearish abandoned baby candlestick!
I just noticed DUST too has an upside down bullish abandoned baby candlestick.
IBB has quadrupled since 2011.
I’m looking for it to pull back 30-50% during the 7 YCL then start it’s bubble phase.
What would be the trigger for the bubble phase? QE4?
Correct.
any IBB company with earning??
GILD.
SPX to 1000 and oil to $20 by year end.
I’ll be willing to bet a burrito neither one of those are even close to happening by that time.
One would have to assume that central banks would just sit on the sidelines and watch everything implode. They learned their lesson in 09. They will all start massive QE programs long before we get to that point.
The PPT would literally shut the market down before that ever occurred!
Yes, it is unlikely. But the risks to the downside for all assets are too great for the rest of the year IMO, so I’m just holding these December SPY puts with some silver and cash. I’ll still have a very good year even if they do rocket the market higher.
An illiquid meltdown in the markets could happen much faster than the Fed can act. We could see $10-$15 trillion in new QE in response to the bust.
The S&P fell from 2020 to 1950 in less than a day with a “dovish” Fed. What does that tell you?
If you truly believe that SPX is going down in value toward 1700, when not buy SPY puts or SH (1 x inverse S & P) ?