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Gary, I like intervention as miners can rally otherwise they have to be sold. Can you please comment about GDX losing 10 dma today if that’s a concern. I know $gold didn’t but it could lose it before I can finish blinking my eye!
Unless gold breaks the previous DCL at 1097 I’m still looking for more upside out of this second daily cycle.
It is their job to stick it to the short-sellers before it crashes again.
Bears failed to close under Dow 16,000 twp weeks ago when they had a chance. And they paid dearly for that in terms of time wasted in the cycle. Today’s indices fall, even when healthcare and biotechs were falling hard, was lackluster and did not have enough umph behind it. The ppt even repaired some of the day’s losses in the last hour of trading. So, yeah, it does not look favorable top bears for tomorrow.
The goal of government manipulators is to close the Dow above 17000 and then above 17,300 to finish off the bear. Bears must take Dow 16,000 as a deterrent to PPT’s goal.
As such, any session where bears cannot stage a decisive fall and close under Dow 16,000 on a weekly basis is a session in favor of the PPT.
So, the race is on.
Fed left the rate alone because they said there were weaknesses.
If they keep propping the market, it will be against their prognosis.
Therefore, it should go down to natural support, 1800-ish
Blame it all on Volkswagen, shall we?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/german-goes-so-world-william-yii?trk=prof-post
So when the market bounces out of an oversold condition and because folks got bearish up the wazoo buying puts galore – raising the put/call ratio to levels where the market will rally for a day or so – that is called “intervention”.
Apparently intervention is when Gary says the market should go straight to SPX 1500 but instead it has sell-offs and bounces on it’s way down.
The only clear intervention was the two days before the FOMC meeting to push the market back to 2000. And it looked like we might have had an intervention last night and this morning to stem the sell off that was beginning. I don’t know if they will be able to hold it into the close though.
Make no mistake, if they can’t stop the 7 YCL here then it’s going to get really ugly in Oct. and their only recourse will be QE4 IMO.
I think they will fight tooth and nail to try to avoid that.
I also don’t think the bottom in August was a natural bottom. A natural bottom would have been a narrow range day as the selling pressure dried up and then the market reverses. The place where stocks reversed wasn’t at any kind of support zone or Fibonacci level. So there wasn’t even any kind of trigger for shorts to cover.
If there was ever an example of blatant manipulation that was it.
Looking at other topformations from 200/2008 this topping formation is no different. I am still looking for a bear rally in gold though. The last one was a little bit weak imho
By George, I think he’s got it.
Hi Gary,
First, thanks very much for all these updates. I really appreciate all the hard work you do in providing this analysis.
Second, is not the buying power of the Fed unlimited, so if they really wanted to couldn’t the Fed/PPT stop any decline in stocks at a moments notice . As such, couldn’t this then go on indefinitely
If they are doing QE then yes there is in theory no limit to the money they can spend but they aren’t doing QE so I think they are using funds from reverse repos to fund the interventions. Once those funds are gone then they will have to start another round of QE.
One more monthly close below 10 month SMA on the sp500 and there will an opportunity to make a lot of money on the short side.
How you ask? Pull up a monthly chart and ride the MA down. Ignore the daily and weekly charts.
Gary can’t do it because he watches a 5 minute chart and always get knocked out of his position.
I’m just not brave enough to short as long as central banks have a printing press.
Gary,
What timeline would you expect the Fed to start QE4 or do you think that a market crash will drive QE4? thanks,
There’s no chance of QE at current levels. But if the S&P were to drop to 1700 or 1550 I think I could guarantee there would be another QE.
I have to laugh. Last week Gary you were a Greek God. Today, not so much.
Gary, is this looking like a divergence where Gold higher and miners pointing to lower prices? Thanks!
I really don’t know what to think of miners right now. Gold is doing what I expected. It tested the 10 DMA and bounced, but as of today anyway the miners aren’t following. I think they will if gold can start making some higher highs though.
Thank you Gary! How strange all this is to my naive brain…