I’ll give you credit. You’ve been calling for a crash for years.
You nailed it.
Yep I called it alright.
Yep you missed the 20 percent correction but it looks like you missed most of the 3 year bull run after that.
When did you get back in?
Bull run LOL such ignorance on this forum, more like QE fed money run, this is not nor has it EVER!!! been a bull market NOT WITH ZERO PERCENT INTEREST RATES!
Oh and Ill also add, this is nothing more than one gigantic bubble waiting to pop…yes Bubble, I know only Gold and Silver get the bubble terminology in sheeple land but this is a bubble and when it does pop its taking many with it.
Last time I checked, that’s a BULL MARKET.
What difference does it make as to WHY the market went up?….the fact is….it went up…and bears were wrong. They may finally be right this time (after all, a broken clock tells the correct time twice per day….never mind that it’s wrong the rest of the time) 🙂
That’s why most traders (and gurus) underperform a simply buy and hold of SPY over the long haul. 🙂
That is, getting out too early and then missing a massive bull run and getting back in at a higher price than they got out at.
We outperformed the market handily in 2014 and are doing so again this year.
exactly … keep calling for a crash & you’ll eventually be right
however this time, many are calling for a crash and many who didn’t call for one for all these years since the 2009 bottom … like BIll Fleckenstein, for example
Gary, I couldn’t agree more. At some point the damned net that the PPT keep hauling out is going to rip wide open, and, when it does, there’s going to be a very hard landing.
Let me play Devil’s advocate for a moment.
Can we really call what happened back in August a crash..? Think about it. The last time the Market took a nose dive was back in late 2011 and everyone, including my Grandmother, was calling for a crash.. and guess what? It didn’t happen. In fact, the Market continued on for another 4 years – hard as a rock.
Yes, I know what you’re thinking.. eventually the tide HAS to turn – and I wholeheartedly agree – but don’t forget this one very important point.. These people have the power to not only bend, but change the rules if need be, and they will stop at nothing to protect their interest. Proceed with caution, be nimble, and let’s stop calling for a ‘crash’ that has yet to happen…
since when a 20% correction is a crash… like 2011 ???
I think very possible to move up till 2017 news highs… but look for a bottom mid Oct… around SP 1820
when almost bet for crash.. it will be the opposite
pitty you most american born people in this buss you still dont know all about yr FED procedures… will find out.. in 2-3 weeks…
20% in a day is a crash, but, in 2011, it took a whole month for SPX to get from mid 1300s to 1100 and then it chopped around for weeks on end until it dipped to 1074.
I was buying hand over fist at 1100. Now we’re still in the 1900s and I’m safely in cash, and I’ll get back in when the time is right, but when is everyone who failed to buy at 1100 gonna get back in? LOL. Even if their wildest dreams come true and we do see 1100 again, the fact is that these geniuses still missed the entire ride from 1100 to 2000+….actually 667 to 2000+ lol 🙂
Could be the language barrier, but you might’ve mis-read what I wrote dude…
Ps: This reply was for Pacoquin “Le gros coquin”..!
Muffin… yes… maybe its language barrier… but I meant I agree with you on yr second paragrapg about 2011 of yr message 9/23 at 6:44 …. I think these peple can do qhatever they want with market… so I think you misanderstood me because probably I was answering another post, not yours…
I’m looking for a blow off top in 2017 or 18 also, but i think we have to go a little deeper than 1820. I think at least back to the 200 week moving average at 1700.
We needd a steep enough sell off to trigger QE4, because lets face it this market is going no where until the next QE starts.
Gary am following 2011 picture.. and so far… it matches perfectly…. almost day bay day… compare it pls….
I am concerned about the miners. they are super weak while gold is holding quite steady. Which one is leading?
Miners will sell off with the overall market in the short term. Eventually they will reset back to fundamentals, but I wouldn’t be piling into miners hoping to make it rich on the back of a market crash. I’m constantly bemused by the gold bugs buying miners and rooting for a market crash. it makes no sense
Gary, there is a wrong observation that, quote, “no support zone was tagged”. LOOK AT NYSE COMPOSITE AND DJIA AND IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE MARKET TURNED EXACTLY AT THE MOMENT THESE INDEXES TOUCHED THEIR 200WMA!!
PS: as i mentioned yesterday in a reply to Trond’s comment, now, USD Index is rolling over immediately as it kissed its 50dma; it is also about to put today a dark cloud cover pattern and to produce quickly an ICL and further an YCL into October-November
Alex, That would sure help the metals finish their IC rally. I’m not sure what to make of the last cycle that topped above the Aug. low though.
1) …and in continuum with my expectations scattered here above as well as 2 days ago in another comment, now USD is going down confirming today the Dark Cloud Cover pattern produced yesterday, hence the continuation into IC decline for USD, which indeed bodes well for metals, as you say;
2) about what you said, that you are, quote “not sure what to make of the last cycle that topped above the Aug. low”, I figure out that you refer to Gold’s strange action in the last DC – the 1st DC in the new IC.
My opinion remains firmly the same: WE HAVE YET TO SEE THE LOWS IN COMMODITIES!
I commented several weeks ago that IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR CRUDE OIL TO HAVE PUT ITS 3-YCL WHILE HAVING A WEEKLY TRUE STRENGTH INDEX (7,4,7) AS LOW AS -92 !!! It will definitely produce a bullish divergence, meaning that we are to see a lower low in crude oil and in general in CRB. Now, Gold’s action in the 1st DC (huge correction for 1 DC in excess of fib62%) only signals that the low in July is to be tested – THE BULL IS SIMPLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE BEGINING OF A NEW BULL MARKET, IT IS JUST A TEMPORARY CORRECTION IN A STILL BEAR MARKET!
The buy signal is near? What do you think?
Was there a crash? Did I miss it ?
The negativity on the commodity space seemed at fever pitch today on the street and in the media. Talk of global recession in general markets. So negative. RickH
I think that as long as the market declines in a nice orderly fashion that doesn’t catch too much mainstream media attention, the FED will not intervene. When American nightly news puts aside the usual “Kim Kardashian farted and it was fantastic ” theme or variations of “a fireman got a stranded cat out of a tree” and always a favorite, “three women go berserk in Macdonalds, Walmart, (take your pick)” and of course, an everyday video of six cops beating the crap out some black guy for ‘resisting’, and the lead story becomes “Market Crash” then the FED will take notice and intervene, Chinese style.
Gary, it wasn’t that no one believed you, it was more like it was taking like forever to happen, and so people just flat out got tired of waiting and waiting. Many people were predicting it, too, which made me wonder if perhaps something else might happen. And as Muffin said, was it a crash at all? To me, it wasn’t – I think it was pre-market HFT computers gone wild on thin volume – a bug perhaps, or a circumstance that system engineers didn’t participate, and the computers just piled in and drug prices down. It wasn’t real. So to me, any intervention authorities did then was warranted. To me it’s a flag that running computers on the market creates a new risk that authorities need to evaluate and perhaps regulate. Anyways, my 2 yen on that.
XLE continues to trend down. Am waiting for a bottom. $WTIC looks like it could be bottoming, but we won’t know until it does.
GDX is a messy bottom, but it may be a bottom. I still am not sure how to trade this, because the last 2 paper trades I did failed. Prices start going higher, then gap down causing a net loss. Glad I’m out, but am waiting to get in, as sentiment is low, COT is low, and weekly/monthly charts are oversold. But just like the S&P went sideways for like 6 mos this year before going down, GDX/GLD might stay here for 6 mos or whatever, crawling along the bottom.
typo – a bug perhaps, or a circumstance that system engineers didn’t *anticipate*
I think GDX is due for at least a bounce to $17 a share again, but who says it can’t see single digits first?
Even if we do get a real SPX crash, everyone who called it missed the entire rally from 667 to 2100+ , (and probably lost from shorting the market as well) so who cares if they get it right this one time?
I for one was out of the S&P – missed the whole thing – my head was up my arse watching GDX go down. What a fool I was. I refused to buy because the price rise was due to artificial buying – the Fed printing money, giving it to the banks, and the banks buying stocks – but up is up, and I missed it. Man what a fool I was.
Commodities, watch the bearish signals, no sign of bottoming yet…expecting a “violent” 4Q to come?
Crude to $33.
Forget a 20% crash – this market deserves 2008 on steroids (Ie: SPY cut in half minimum by year end) to purge the incredible leverage and complacency created by the saver-punishing PPT criminals.
I agree but will it come to pass? That is the question. Let’s not underestimate the FED and their friends in Government who will re-write the Constitution if they have to haha! Mother F*ckers.
============Yellen’s Speech Thursday Designed to Boost Stocks
She said I wont raise last week and market went down.
So Thursday nite she did a flip and said I will raise by year end, and boom stocks took off today.
The PPT CEO in chief herself learns fast.
So after bears failed for 3rd time to close under Dow 16,000 on Thursday; now the Target for PPT remains conquering Dow 17,000 and then closing above 17,300 to deliver the HEAD SHOT to the correction.
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