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Gary, how likely do you think is the situation when gold doesn’t go above 1140 – 1150, and instead goes down for the rest of the IC?
It’s not my expected scenario. Usually smart money will push gold to at least a marginal breakout so they can unload on the technical traders buying the breakout. So I expect gold will at least marginally break above 1167.
Low volume suggests this is another bear rally. Things have to get a lot worse before gold truly rallies, just my opinion.
I get the impression from reading posts on here that four years is considered a long bear market after the 12 year bull. Have a look at a historical graph of gold, 100/150 years, it might surprise you.
Judging by the losses in juniors and majors, 90% and 84%, this is already one of the most destructive bear markets in history and very late in the cycle. Keep in mind that gold is still in a secular bull market, and not a secular bear market like it was from 1980-2000
My question is why do you consider the bull of 2000-2012 different from the bull from 1970 -1980. Could we not potentially get another prolonged bear run. Regarding miners, I think the juniors and minnows have lost 90%, but not the main payers. A lot of the juniors started around the peak 2008-10 and have been crushed as a result the fall in gold prices.
Because the fundamentals haven’t changed yet. The last bull came to an end when Volcker made the hard choice to stop inflation.
We haven’t made the hard choice yet, and I expect the printing will only accelerate massively once stocks drop down into their 7 YCL and central banks panic again.
So previously you said you thought the bull market was possibly over and gold was rallying to $1250, the fall to $1070 was enough. Now all of a sudden you are ultra bearish. You have turned your own theory on its head and now state that the run up was manufactured! Where do you stand?
Also sorry but you said the manipulation SELLING was to the downside. Now you are saying it is the buying which is the manipulation?
One more question, are you now saying your estimate of $1250 by mid October is off the table. What has changed?
I’ve never said the bull market is over. Intermediate rallies can be over and this is certainly a cyclical bear market. But the secular bull market is not over. We haven’t had a bubble phase yet. How many times have you heard me predict $5000 gold or higher before the final top is in?
Yep sorry a mistype Bear not Bull.
The low at beginning of the millennium is the LOW in real term of ALL TIME. Americans are looking at gold as they were the centre of the world and forgetting there are billions of people that are now a lot richer than they were in the past and that love gold. CPI index has been changed and calculation is underestimating inflation by a big percentage. Debt are at higher level of ALL TIME. So only banks are manufacturing this bear market using derivatives and high leverage. In this bear market we have not seen a real bear market rally and miners have been battled down as never before. HUI index has lost 538 points from therir highs, xau index is trading at 40 years bottom. So the only reason why prices are going down is SPECULATION. Yes this could (and should) be the low in this bear market, even if it probably won’t.
You say waiting for miners to follow gold? In my experience, the miners usually lead the way for gold. Also, I think the dollar started a new daily cycle. If so Gold will get crushed.
Yes I am assuming this is just another bear market rally that will end soon and then head toward 1030 later this fall.
^ Maybe this is the gold blogger capitulation we needed? No offense, but isn’t that how it works?
Well they managed to take Miners down to their previous lows yesterday so today they should move up to the recent highs today IE no actual gain just the appearance of one.
That’s what she said.
Gary, what is your take on this mornings rally on the gold price and action on the miners. Does this rally have more legs?
I dunno if Gary will respond but I’m going to. Look at the weekly charts of the miners. We are within 3 weeks at the most before ripping higher…could happen now, next week, but probably within 3 weeks. GDX will be over $20
The intermediate rally is not over yet. I think gold goes to at least 1180 or 1200 but unless the miners start screaming higher very soon then I’m going to assume this was another bear market rally and we’ll need to take profits in the not too distant future.
Miners will probably roll over when the general market decline accelerates, but for now this is one hell of squeeze. Could see a $50+ up day in gold.
Someone bought 15,000 January 2016, 80-strike puts on the HYG high yield bond ETF. That’s a $1.6 million cash bet on an even
Jan 15, 2016 HYG 80 1.20 0.12 1.16 269 1.30 580 51 19451
Bill, Does that mean a higher market from mid Oct into 2016?
Gold long signal for me! Energy still a sell.
I believe gold was already bottomed. I don’t agree it is a bear market rally. Fed will announce negative interest rate soon and even QE4 to save the market and economy. There won’t be rate hike talking in foreseeable future. Fundamentally, there is no reason for gold to make new low.
Critical juncture, would rather book profits aggressively here!
Opps…my bad…here it is, i would rather book profits aggressively here if you have!
Not sure why Mt. Savage and William are head faked by today’s rally. All technicals are pointing to $1250 in my book. Glad I sold prematurely at Wednesday’s open for a profit from Friday for more Crude shorts.
Nabbed a piece of JNUG at today’s third hour of trading (should’ve seen the writing on the wall at the open)!
Read the charts again. The second daily cycle is doing exactly what I expected. The problem is the miners are not making higher highs along with gold. If they get in gear in the next day or two then everything is all good. If not then I’d say they are trying to warn us that gold will be capped again before it can make a higher high and we need to start taking profits around the 1180-1200 level.
That second chart is a great example of lower lows and lower highs.
ADD to existing SHORTS on Miners and Gold if and when gold gets to 1180+.
Then wait for the other shoe to drop later this year to below $1000.
UNLESS: Janet does QE4 by year end (UNLIKELY but possible). More likely: Janet will raise in Nov or Dec.
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