Hi, Gary! Pls mind that DJIA and NYSE Composite have already touched their 200wma where they’ve found their last DCL on Aug24 and HCL on Sep28.
Thus, further downside for SP500 will mean that DJIA and NYSE will break their 200wma –> this is a fact which historically has SHOWN PROTRACTED BEAR MARKETS !
Now, while the next ICL in stocks is to come around Sep13 as SP500 meets its 200wma (and USD puts its too-much-delayed YCL) and as the new IC in stocks will overlap Santa Claus seasonal rally – a strong bear market rally will come by the end of Dec -, ONE SHOULD HEED TO THAT HISTORICAL FACT THAT BREAKS OF 200WMA IN DJIA AND NYSE HAVE NOT COME IN CHEAP BUT THEY’VE ALLWAYS ARRIVED TO STAY AND LINGER FOR SOME TIME.
But first things first: ICL in stocks and YCL in USD by mid Oct (miners and gold are already sniffing the bull in USD as it will grow up into its next YCH – a new low in crude oil and CRB is imminent as stocks will move into their ICH by the end of Dec)
PS: fundamental evidence of Chinese turmoil and especially Japanese public debt restructuring need add to the conviction that this bear won’t be gotten rid of easily – we have to wait the end of the next IC to see the 7YCL, i.e. most likely by April-May 2016.
Don’t ignore emerging markets especially if you’re USD based…
Yes, William, I think you’re right.
We are now about to end the current Kondratiev cycle which began in 1949 – that’s why we’re seeing deflationary forces rampant and, on the same continuum, THAT’S ALSO WHY THIS BEAR MARKET WILL NOT LEAVE ITS GRIP SO EASILY BY MID OCTOBER; just like a strong flu it has to run its course in reaching its peak first, and that takes ….TIME !
After that, we will be emerging into the Spring of the next K-wave (aka, kondratiev cycle) which will re-boost inflationary forces: i.e. excellent times, marvelous decades to come for commodities, real estate and, as you pointed out, for emerging markets too.
Good analysis, however there can be another viable scenario.
Market test recent lows or even marginally break through them and turn around for year end rally, during which FED gets a chance to rate interest rates. This enables $ (which appears to be forming BULL flag) to rally starting next year for next leg up. This is turn will start the grueling turn in the markets to test 2007 highs, however the low will not happen quickly but rather would take several months. By this time, turmoil across the globe increases and we shall witness commodities rising with $. Fed will be forced to initiate QE4 which will be end of $ trend and that’s when the next BULL market begins in both commodities & stock market.
Just another view….
QE4 is the stuff of Peter Schiff’s wet dreams; not gonna happen.
in continuum with what I commented on above, USDX is now gaining chi-force at its 50dma from where to slingshot downwards into its YCL alongside stocks’ ICL on October 13.
Gold is getting the scent of the upwards movement of USD to follow after October YCL.
Next YCH in USDX is most likely to come in January, shortly after the ICH in stocks in December.
Gold always gets the hammer on Payroll week its almost tradition actually…I’m buying it.
Good, I think that’s a good placement, Bill.
I’m getting ready to write a put on GLD with 105 strike. I’m timing the entry
Construction companies added 35,000 jobs, ADP said, the most since the housing bubble burst in 2006. Retail, transportation and utilities companies added 39,000.
Uptrend support line from 2006, resting around 1095 – 1105…could be hit soon. This important support line that no many people notice needs to hold! August lows were precisely supported by this uptrend line…
So, the level around 1,095 – 1,105 needs to hold!
Here it is , the trend-line since 2006…
Yes, William, it’s holding. USDX looks like it’s not able to produce a new intraday high and greenback bulls are losing ground. YCL decline resumption of USD is in its making as I write this !!!
At the same time gold has just put an intraday bullish wedge and NYSE is advancing on few 52w highs and larger 52w lows while SPX and USD have been strongly correlating (40day tracking) since July.
I’m waiting for a new low in USDX as an entry signal to write those GLD puts.
On the other hand, William, mind that support line of gold will breakdown in the 2nd half of October !
Yea…it’s never gonna be straight line for this beast!
One word here which sums up the continued weakness in metals and miners and perhaps stocks moving forward as well: DEFLATION
Umm not really you’re looking in all the wrong places…show me the deflation in food prices? show me the deflation in Rents and Housing, show me the deflation in fees for services, taxes and so on, show me the deflation in Energy, my utility bills keep rising, sure gas has come down pennies but nothing I would declare as deflationary at this time.
True deflation is in wages, the rest not so much. Then again this is what the CB’ switch pullers want you to believe deflation is rampant when in fact its not.
Yawn, another outright criminal intervention to prop the general market up. I had to put up with this nonsense when I was buying puts in June and July as well. Trend is still bearish.
That’s what bears get for their failure to close under Dow 16,000 like 5 times in the past 2 weeks.
Bears are not decisive or strong enough to break the back of Dow 16,000. So PPT stole the ball and ran with it. “That’what we get for being stupid, bears.”
You snooze you lose bear.
Bear – Bull Bs, come on…this is gambling some win some lose there is no bear bull crap.
LOL I top ticked IBB in July pretty much and made bank on the August crash. Just shut up you troll.
Unless you posted the trade here in real time don’t tell us you picked a top months ago. Unless it’s called in real time it never happened.
NUGT doing a 1:10 reverse split. This will reduce the float by 90%.
OMG they’re turning the corner!
Why Oct 13 for Stock market low? Is this following analogies of 1970 or 1987 markets? Looking at current rally, I am afraid it has more strength than a simple bear market rally, as technical do not look so bad!
Gold remains in a long-term bear market and it is dangerous to your capital and especially your cognitive load (your attention) to waste time trying to call the bottom. Worse, is to dangle the prospect of “huge gains” and moves in the “range of several hundred percent” when there is nothing to indicate such moves are imminent. I have watched people invest money in this market now for over two years, each time convincing themselves the end of the bear market is at hand. It wasn’t, and it isn’t.
No doubt the bull market in gold will resume one day. Before acting on the belief that this is going to happen soon, best to do a reality check and at least admit the sector is in a deep bear market–and long bear markets can go on much, much longer than you might think.
Thanks for the heads up and Ill buy it on this message…
Gary, where does GDX and Gold stand in relation to the SPX ?
Nice fades in miners, biotech, and the general market today. Although we could keep bouncing into October, watch out below afterwards like Gary said.
Retail got fleeced shorting on the way up and now are afraid to do it again. This confidence in central banks is truly remarkable. Deflationary crash dead ahead.
Not gonna happen not in my or your lifetime…
And besides if this case for a deflationary collapse is indeed true ( which its not ) then I would be piling into gold if I were you,. Think 1930’S people were looking for stores of value not piling into dollars they were buying gold and hiding it. Take the monthly art postings as an example of what the Filthy wealthy are doing with their dollars, paying new high millions for art, art that you and I could mostly never afford in our lifetimes, its called a store of value.
This is a fine forum but I think many have the state of things half ass backwards…
cash is the king
It is all deflation. I do not have time to educate or provide a course in economics here but one could argue that we have been in a deflationary environment since the late 90s.
But like you said, gold should be going higher in a deflationary earthquake.
Fed is not so powerful after all
…and USDX halted its upmove despite SPX finishing with a marubozu upthrust candle on foolish retail buying (remember the strong positive correlation btw stocks and USD now underway).
USDX also barely move over its 50dma and closed on its weekly downward trendline. There is also a bearish triangle in weekly USDX ready to breakdown
YCL decline to start soon for the greenback alongside its correlated stocks market!
As I said, I will write my GLD puts as soon as USDX moves below today’s low of 95.99 with a very low risk.
Or maybe even better: considering the steep decline in USDX to ensue, maybe I’ll split the exposure in half and buy some calls alongside writing the puts in GLD.
closed at 1920.?? next stop 1940
Beware “shorties”, bull is flexing its muscle?
Updated to include world, asian indices & spy/gld ratio chart…
Thanks William! Plain & simple…
Meanwhile everyone here is oblivious that energy is making the turn.
Love it when the masses are lazer focused on the usual suspects, it keeps the underdog under the radar for heaps of riches to come, thank you all.
Agreed. Eye for a test at $50 for WTI.
William today the institutions were quietly accumulating shares of beaten down energy companies with astronomical dividend yields creating what Mr. Savage would call a “swing low”.
Surprises me that Mr. Savage isn’t even giving energy a time of day but that’s quite alright with me, loaded the boat on crude Monday and maybe nibble on some divi companies tomorrow on weakness OR @ the open in which I neglected to spock today.
Gary check this setup out
Retail getting super excited with this sharp futures bounce on TERRIBLE China data. Yawn. Just means the dead cat bounce will be over sooner. Here’s a “crazy” call that I will repeat – SPY 100 by year end.
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