44 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY”

    1. Tim

      if Glencore can stay up off lows then miners are happy, but if it is not over with the problems they have and fall again to new lows then gold miners will have problems in this market, I actually think the miners had gold following them before this latest rally, last 2 weeks miners were very weak when Glencore was falling until the bottom was hit and then rallied

  2. Ostermyer306

    Finally, I hope!!!! To many wounds to get really excited yet.. Post QE3 era has not been kind.

  3. AlexP

    Back from holiday.
    While Employment weakness came in as a surprise , it pinpoints to underlying fundamental weakness of US economy which will bring in plenty of volatility – including new lows.
    now the market has moved with joy that FED’s hike is off for good but … it is just the joy to lure the naive that the multi-YCL has been put.
    Before that happens, we should see $TRAN and $RUT diverging positively from major indexes alongiside bullish divergences of the same major indexes. none of these have occured but quite on the contrary –> RUT put in a lower low.

    This bear market rally is to top arround $VIX touching its 200mda from the upside. There smart money will dump hopes.

    1. Bill

      This bear market rally is to top arround $VIX touching its 200mda from the upside. There smart money will dump hopes.

      Do we have your word on this? so when it doesn’t happen we can call you out like so many here call Gary out?

      1. AlexP

        giving my word would imply have a certainty – a luxury that me as a trader do not have.
        I’m weighing probabilities to the best I can based on historical evidence and I trade as a VAST MAJORITY OF SETUPS ALIGN while strictly abiding to my position sizing and risk management rules. In the rest of time I mostly stay in cash, just as I am now with 90% cash and some 10% UGL.
        That’s all the “certainty” I can give.

    2. james moffett

      Alex, do you still expect a big selloff around Oct. 13, or have you changed your outlook? thx

      1. AlexP

        I’m not sure, James, as to when the lower low comes anymore: either this month or in November but I know [with a very large probability] that it will come and I am waiting for it 90% in cash now.
        The drift in the timing opinion has come due to the new cheerful party about the funeral of a FED hike on a dismal Employment Sit, party which must first be digested.

        From a psychological point of view, after markets work this mood out, I think they will swing to the fear that FED and central banks are not doing enough in the face of a wall of disappointing fundamental data to come in from around the world, US included.
        So, I expect that today’s joy of a FED-hike kill to turn into tomorrow’s (i.e. several weeks from now at most) doubt that maybe central bankers are, at least, short term, left behind the curve on their left feet, and THEN I EXPECT, ON THIS CHANGE OF PSYCHO MOOD, THAT WE SEE LOWER LOWS ON MAJOR INDEXES.
        Indeed, after that low, I also concur with Gary that another psycho swing will occur: markets will see things so bleak that savvy participants will start anticipating FED move and the market will go higher, but here is the trick: FOR THE MARKET TO GO HIGHER ON A TEMPORARILY HEALTHY BEAR MARKET RALLY, MAJOR PESSIMISM MUST BE FIRST SET! NOW IT IS TOO EARLY TO CALL THAT A SIGNIFICANT RALLY HAS STARTED.

        Additionally, the rise today has been on medium volume, with underlying selling on strength and buying on weakness of bonds! Likewise, some bearish divergences are likely to set.
        I do hope that tomorrow we will see a higher high than on Sep18 so that I can have the confirmation that the current rise has been on very soft ice so that a lower low is needed before I can go long full-monty into a real, powerful bear market rally.

        1. Tim

          Here are 2 important keys to watch, what Glencore and Freeport can do to rally and stay with a continued higher market, 2nd what the biotechs can do, right now they did not participate in the rally yesterday and Glencore/Freeport are just holding on today with biotech down today, cannot believe that those 2 lows are all we are going to see. Isn’t this how the last bubble broke. The feds have a printing press yes, but can they keep companies afloat forever that has no to little value under today’s figures.

          1. AlexP

            Exactly, Tim. Significant relative weakness in IBB alonside in RUT is one amongst many that this rise of broad indexes is feeble and that it is merely the leg-up of a daily cycle that stands to fail.
            NB: unlike IBB and RUT, transports seem to have aligned with the overall market – a preliminary step towards gaining relative strength but there is still way to go till there

  5. David

    By the time most position for the crash that you spoke about last month, you already changed your mind. How is anyone going to make money with your calls?

    1. gary Post author

      Folks I’ve begged and pleaded with you not to short the stock market. I said several times last week to wait until the SPX drops below last Tuesday’s low before trying to short. Why? Because the Fed has a printing press and they can print as much money as they need to keep the market propped up.

      We are easily outperforming the S&P this year and just started a long positon today as a matter of fact.

      Yes the market is due for a deeper move down into the 7 YCL, but if the Fed can stop that move by printing another trillion dollars or so who am I to argue with them. Just get on board with the knowledge that the Fed has your back.

  6. Dan

    QE3 didn’t do jack for the metals, so QE4 will help now? I’m long the Russell now, but my money’s still on out of the money puts for this fraud to blow up by year end. Feel free to laugh at me in December.

    1. Mr Edge

      Think of QE as laying in the foundation for a launch of gold. The only people looking at gold now and in the past are the ones that understand the potential rise. The Fed has everyone else thinking QE is a panacea for what ails the economy. NOT. As for the timing, well I think Gary is as close to the answer as anyone.

      1. Jay

        They will either eventually go to your house and physically confiscate your gold before this is all over (like they did in the Great Depression), or they will eventually manipulate the price so low you will wish that you had never invested in gold, ever. Pick your poison! 🙂

        1. Mr Edge

          Your post reminds me of that character in the movie KELLY’S HEROS. He was so overcome by negative waves that he was paralyzed to make a move.

    2. gary Post author

      It wasn’t QE3 that caused gold to go down. It was manipulation of the paper market to create a bear market and depress price as far as possible before the next leg of the bull begins.

      They managed to create one of the most destructive bear markets in history for mining shares. I think those forces that were trying to force gold lower are now more than likely moving to the long side having accomplished their goal. They’ve set the metals sector up for what is likely to be the largest bull market any of us will ever see.

  7. Frank

    The Elliot Wave perspective for the bearish drop is not dead yet. We had waves 1-5 end Sep 29. There should have been a new low, but there was not. Now we are in a big wave 2 correction that could last around a third of the wave 1-5 time, or a few weeks. Then the big wave 3 down. I will admit defeat right here if the market goes up.

  8. bhowe

    Now that the GDX train has left the station, how do you find a good point to enter without immediately getting under water?

    1. gary Post author

      You can drive yourself crazy trying to make a perfect entry. It’s pretty much impossible.

  10. Jason Schwartz

    Armstrong will never admit he is wrong about anything. ever. period. end of story.

    Gary,

    Are you surprised by the strength of the US$ at this point in time in its cycle ?
    Thanks.

    J

  11. Dan

    I’m just laughing hysterically at the conventional market at this point. This could be the start of Gary’s bubble phase – why not?

    1. gary Post author

      I’m of the opinion that it probably is. World economies are starting to slip into recession. The powers that be aren’t going to make the same mistake they made in 08. They will throw trillions at global markets to keep them inflated and keep the recession at bay.

      They will get the opposite result and create another bubble.

      These idiots will never learn.

  12. Lily

    Hi, Gary,

    Why is GDXJ lagging comparing to GDX? Shouldn’t the small-caps be leading?

    Thanks,
    Lily

  13. Bill in Tokyo

    GARY IS RIGHT, AGAIN.

    Today $SILVER broke out.

    Now SLV leads GLD, just like GDX has GLD for a few days now.

    Gary nailed this bottom.

    Now all TREND/SWING TRADERS – AWAKEN! – GDX’s 1 &2 hr RSI(14) are overbought, so if we get a pullback, THERE is our higher low.

        1. William

          Good point there, but take note that volume in the last 2 days were doubled the previous days…

  17. Chris PA

    Gary, maybe I missed something, but are you suggesting they could start QE under the radar? How?

  18. David Silver

    Metals and Miners nicely up premarket.
    Adding to selected tech stocks @ open technically making swing lows Monday and deeply discounted mirroring energy and metal equities of last week.

  20. Bill

    Gary check out Oil…Definitely a change in market sentiment as far as the commodity sector is concerned….War ( Syria ) has a tendency to do that..

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