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Looks like tomorrow red day for gold… Attempt was failed today but tomorrow it may succeed as all indicators are in overbought zone.. Hope it won’t start reverse move…What you say?
I said it in the chart 🙂
I say make Love to the Chart and break the trend line baby – nice and slow 🙂
Backing and filling is good. It’s bull market behavior. That’s what we want to see. Not the typical rocket shot of a bear market rally.
Silver plunging out of nowhere.
Not out of nowhere! Chinese re-entering the market after holiday.
This is going to be interesting. How serious are the boyz tonight.
A break of $1160 and $1223 will be weekly higher highs.
That would be the first time in 3 years.
So are we skipping the A and B wave, jumping straight to a C wave?
I haven’t thought about the A wave in a long while. Presumably this A-wave would take at least 2 and maybe 3 intermediate cycles and not rise above 1920 to be followed by a scary drop down into a YCL and the B-wave decline.
William you mentioned the Aussie miner Newcrest is technically very strong, but remember then that the gold price in Australian dollars is the same as in summer of 2011.., whereas oil price is lower, local profits should therefore be higher. Btw the gold price measured in AUD shows a technical bullish reversal formation
Oh, yes, it will be broken and broken big time as USDX now moves into YCL driving metals higher.
But make no exception! Do no get too ecstatic and be wise to take your profits in gold next week immediately after you see the selling climax in USDX next week !!!
Eventually, three weeks from now, that break of the gold bear line drawn by Gary will look like a shakeout and it will be a shakeout as USDX will produce a monthly swing low in November while USDX moves towards its YCH in December-January.
….and on the stocks’ arena, today’s FOMC minutes will be the trigger to swing the psychology of the market, as I was commenting on October 5 in a reply to James Moffett.
Yesterday stocks set a peak in their bear market rally and the short that I said last evening I had put for 1% capital-at-risk will bring me nice greens alongside the double long in gold (UGL) as USDX feels the gravitational pull of its YCL.
I’ll go 100% in cash, though, next week and I’ll lurk from there to go long in stocks gradually as I expect the REAL sharp bear market rally in stocks to start this month, as I also commented upon extensively last week.
‘….and on the stocks’ arena, today’s FOMC minutes will be the trigger to swing the psychology of the market, as I was commenting on October 5 in a reply to James Moffett.’
You mean turn the market down?
Yes, please see my answer below to Johan.
I am short now (for 1% capital-at risk as I said, not more) but I am prepared for everything, I have an exit strategy for whatever happens in the market; this is a probabilities game out of which I want to keep my head into positive expectancy for my trading plan on a permanent basis.
Good luck, Bob! 😉
Alex, what is your short target for stocks now?
well, I am no wizard and as I said last week, setting expectations is like the sketch for a painter but not the painting itself, because I strictly apply my utterly unbreakable money & risk management rules.
– the FIRST TARGET is to see SP500 kiss its 10dma; at that moment I’ll trail my stop downwards so that I can lock in +1% profit on the overall position (also to cushion any potential slippage) from the level at which I opened it last evening (here in Bucharest) / afternoon (in NY) on the overwhelming bearish data.
– If 2 things occur simultaneously, (1) my trail stop does NOT get hit by an whipsaw today and (2) the market confirms my expectation to alter its psychology on the FOMC minutes and moves lower, then I’ll set 10dma-violation as trailing stop with the SECOND TARGET a new low below Oct15 last year somewhere at 1820, if I remember well.
At that moment I’ll keep my finger 2 millimeters off the buy button on my short and the sell button for my long in gold, because now USDX and stocks move together, so that to get back into 100% cash.
Alex, would love to get in touch. Was a lurker on the SMT’s subscription site but didn’t manage to get the address of your new site. Please drop me an email at [email protected]
And the cash in hand next week I presume you look to keep that in USD?
You’re welcome, Johan!
Based on your question, I can infer you’re from Germany 🙂
In principle, yes, I would advise you to switch part of your EUR savings in USD one day after the selling climax.
How much, what percentage ? Sorry, but I cannot answer you that: it depends on your rules …
Personally, I will keep it in USD because I trade US markets and I cannot help it.
Besides, soon after going 100% cash, I will start scaling in long positions in US stocks to ride the STRONG bear market bull to come into early December. So, I’ll personally be USD exposed.
…. and now we also have 2 significant fundamental data adding to my stocks shorting and lower lows idea I’ve kept holding despite major disagreement:
1) yesterday US credit consumer came in extremely strong !
2) now hawkish jobless claims.
All I need is the FIRE-STARTER ingredient of FOMC minutes later today … 🙂 [leaking my green-greasy fingers 🙂 ]
I love that old saying — Too clever by half
Great analysis Alex I say before the fact, because I believe you are spot on! And I am actually Swedish 🙂 And long USDEUR and looking to add more on weakness!
Long GDX — I believe we may have seen FOMC reversal #2, shortly after mkt open.
Filling the necessary gaps today for the next leg….
Do you think we should see pullback in oil?
See my previous post.
Dollar just got bitch slapped lol…
Hopefully I’m not the only one who seen this lol
As says GARY the trend of GOLD market is up, some gains in:
Nice bull trap above $16 on GDX. ..and now back to our regularly scheduled Metals Bear Market, already in progress 🙂
yaa…, they f… me on the way down then f… me on the way up…, what a f….rs…, hopefully tomorrow will be a better day…
AlexP, the conventionals are not reacting to the FOMC minutes as you anticipated. I enjoyed your posts though – good rational and good try.
Thank you, Bob! You’re right. I was dead wrong about it, I’ve got stopped out of my short and lost 1% of equity. I have also killed the UGL position (on profit but unsatisfactory as I haven’t achieved my 2x reward/risk ratio on this trade).
Being 100% in cash is a better position wherefrom to rethink my strategy…at this moment I feel in a limbo…I need to see how things develop…if this IC in stocks proves right-translated and if there is no close below the daily cycle band of stocks until it does become right-translated, then indeed we can think we are in a new multi-year cycle as Gary has kept saying for over a week now.
Gary, as the French say: “Chapeaux” on stocks’ call! You’ve got it right!
Now I’m getting back into my den.
Good luck to you all!
I think you are a bit early to give up on your view. The stock market is only in the high part of the range and extremely overbought, so short is still a good play risk/rewardwise i feel.
Yes, Johan, there is evidence that stocks are set for a temporary correction: SPX is in bearish divergence with its money flow index, VIX just touched its 200dma yesterday and it usually bounces back from there, stocks are one month and a half into their current daily cycle and decline is inevitable…AAII’s bullish sentiment is too high already…
note: It is confusing both for bulls and for bears that sector rotation looks like a mess, a total mess.
BUUUT, stocks gained their 50dma and moved above their daily cycle band!!! these are 2 pieces of evidence a trend-follower cannot ignore, Johan, that’s what I think and why I need to get back into my den quarter-belly-full.
these 2 things make me think that maybe we are in a new trend and I do not trade counter-trends.
Confirmation will come when a monthly swing low arises and that this IC in stocks is right translated
Gold is running out of time. Although I am bearish, I thought for certain gold would decidedly rally on any hint of central banker panic, or fear. Today’s FED minutes were pretty clear: inflation is too low; the USD is too strong; and the outlook for unemployment is *potentially up*!!! Today’s minute were a huge green light to the gold market, but alas, only industrial metals and commodities have been taking the signal–not gold. I will give the gold market the benefit of the doubt, and say it can have about 5-10 more trading sessions before it must make a *decisive* move higher. The move doesn’t have to be a spike–just a sustained move higher, for consecutive days. It also bears mentioning that gold has done nothing at all, even as other global central banks around the word have indeed already panicked, or eased, over the past year. Bottom line: If gold can’t rally on the US FED’s inability (again) to raise interest rates, then gold is going to have to price at much lower levels.
Why were the inflation hawks so wrong about quantitative easing? Why didn’t all the “money printing” lead to commodity prices skyrocketing?
It led to stock prices spiking. We still got massive inflation just that most of it occurred in global stock markets.
$nymo is at extreme verbought level again and this has to come down as it has always been in the past. Emerging market has already rolled over led by Russia. China will fail its test on trying to fill its weekly gap (as I mentioned in my latest post) although I didn’t state my opinion there.
Lastly, big bearish engulfing on GDX, expect more downside to come with immediate horizontal support at circa 14.70…
Too early to long any of these I’m afraid…