31 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. David Silver

    It’s so funny how all these so called experts come out of the woodwork and get b*tch slapped by the markets of topic, you know who you are.

    Ive learned humility will get you further in life.

    1. MuffinTop

      Great! You should try it cuz I’ve read some of your posts and I don’t think humility is one of your strong suit 🙂

      Oh snap! I said it.

        1. Bill

          Levin has more brains in his left pinkie than you’ll ever have in your lifetime, and that’s a fact…and yes I am a Levin fan.

      1. David Silver

        You’re right cuz but for the record I’m more right than wrong.

        Gold  bottomed on July 24th (confirmed last Friday) and Crude oil on August 24th (confirmed Tuesday). Also the US stock market’s correction ended on August 24th (confirmed last Friday).

        These readings are strictly based on my due diligence and technical assessment.

  2. Bud fox

    There is still two open gaps on GDX (14.50) and HUI (114.71) that need to get filled.
    The probability of those getting filled are very high.

    1. Al

      No one is surely suggesting (especially Gary) that this is going to be anything but an ugly climb from a deep and painful bottom. If it truly is the final low I could careless how long this takes or how much gap filling and wall of worry climbing we do as long as we are heading up at last.

  3. Jay

    I guess US equities are the new safe haven (since March of 2009)….with the exception of the Metals and Mining sector. 🙂

    It should be interesting to see of today’s bull trap in GDX was everyone’s last chance to exit GDX before it works its way into the single digits, or if that was yet another head-fake on the way to a real rally?

    1. Gregor

      This moment, right here, reminds me so much of January and February 2013 when this blog and many observers were convinced the long sideways action in gold was forming a major low. And of course, we know what happened next. That outcome is precisely the one I see as a strong possibility for gold, a massive new drop, this time down to levels around $1000.

    2. gary Post author

      From the low 4 weeks ago to today’s intraday high the miners have rallied 29.7%.

      That seems like a real rally to me???

      1. Jay

        Bear market rallies can be very vicious…especially in a volatile sector that trades almost like a penny stock.

  4. Dan

    Nice trade, but I’d still like to see miners get through November and tax loss selling. 50 HUI still entirely possible.

    1. gary Post author

      That’s what bear markets do. They convince everyone that they still have a long way to go. After dropping over 84% traders now expect to see another 50% shaved off down to 50. If we get to 50 they will start looking for 25. If we get to 25 then it will be 12.

      That’s just what bear markets do. They condition traders to think there is no scenario in which the market can turn and go higher. But let me remind everyone that the miners, and esepcially the junior miners have just gone through one of the most destructive bear markets in history. It’s lasted longer than just about any other bear market in history, and done more damage. To expect this to just keep going down and down is to assume that something is happening that has never happened before.

      I doubt that is the case. Plus we have a huge support zone in the XAU that should at least be good for a big bounce even if this were to turn out to only be a bear market rally.

      1. MuffinTop

        Gary (my darlin’) you’re wasting your time trying to educate these guys – they are brainwashed beyond belief. They will never see the end of the Bear Market and they will argue incessantly until there is no one left standing.

        *Stubborn people: Nothing is absolute, I give you that – that’s why I recommend a ‘stop-loss’ on every single trade – but this game we’re playing is all about probabilities and right now, all the evidence is screaming Bull for Gold Stocks.. so grab the horns, get on and give it a shot! And if the shit hits the fan then get off and wait on the sideline for the next ‘probable opportunity’. It’s that simple.. sorta.

        Ps: I’m like a F*ckin Cheerleader!

    2. Bill

      50 ha ha ha waiter give me half of what this guy is having I to wanna get drunk…your losses must be epic at this stage…and each day it climbs the more you lose…

  5. zkotpen

    Thursday reminded me of March 20, 2013 — specifically for the “1616” theme… 1616 gold back then, and GDX failing to break 16.16 yesterday!!

    Took profits on my GDX longs when I saw it just sort of hanging at 16.15 area — the probabilities shifted.

    By the time I had organized my thoughts to go short, it was already too late.

    Is the bear market over or not? I don’t know.

    I’m just trying to assess probabilities, one day at a time 🙂

  6. David Silver

    Even the great Tim Knight didn’t see the latest energy rally coming and now he’s showing concern of a possible eminent bull run on equities. He even had a DUST recommendation a couple days ago for God’s sake.

    BTW he’s a perma bear.

  7. gary Post author

    Gold is breaking out of the triangle consolidation as I type. If it moves above 1156 it will break the bear market trend line.

    The dollar has confirmed a failed intermediate cycle in progress. It still has many weeks to go before the next intermediate bottom. (Sorry Alex, based on the way I read cycles the dollar is only on week 6 of it’s intermedaite cycle not week 21.) So the yearly cycle low isn’t due until Dec. or Jan.

    1. David Silver

      Thank you kindly for your analysis, holding a Gold mining company.

      Going to add two more financial equities that are technically bullish at the open via weakness to add more exposure to US markets long.

      Holding a tech company and long Crude.

      1. David Silver

        Change of plans.
        Decided to half additions instead by buying more of a new Gold miner due to overall technicals.

    2. AlexP

      Yes, Gary, FOMC minutes yesterday having broken the positive correlation btw stocks and USD, it looks like you’re right. It’s confusing though that neither the USD weekly trendline nor the daily cycle band was broken to confirm the new IC while a weekly swing low makes just a signal not a confirmation…anyway confirmations are not always sharp and after last FOMC minutes it emerges clearer that you have been right on USD being in week 6 not 21.
      Good call!
      PS: there is one problem for stocks though medium term: with commodities set to move higher, 2016 will see one-two FED rate hikes on inflationary fears …. only a sharp uptrend in stocks in the next half a year could prevent a lower low in SP500 (mind that NYSE and DJIA have already confirmed their multi-year cycle declines via breaking their respective monthly trendlines and by producing failed YCL while SP500 hasn’t).

  8. bhowe

    Nice chart on the Weekly. Where are we on the daily? Seems we are due for a pull back in GDX? Are we in ICL , 2nd DC, etc.

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