36 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

    1. gary Post author

      Yes it’s probably time for gold to dip down into a half cycle low and for the dollar to bounce for a couple of days.

  1. Stefan

    There is a huge IO for December, remember last year when 100.000contracts just went up in smoke and gold was smashed down in November. Maybe we would see something similar this year? I am in doubt that this is a start of a new bull, too many smart people say the opposite.

    1. David Silver

      ” I am in doubt that this is a start of a new bull, too many smart people say the opposite.”

      Amazing how the masses think. Let the good times roll.

    2. Bill

      Gold will be $1500 and people such as yourself will still be saying the same thing lol…I’ve been buying and selling gold for 20 years now and its always the same story lol…Stocks and Bonds you can Eat gold you can’t…its fumy to see how emotional people get ….different year same story…

  2. Aida

    During pullbacks, do you hedge your miner portfolio, sell some/all and try to re-enter, or do nothing?

    1. gary Post author

      I’m not very good at short term trading and day trading so I don’t bother trying to trade every wiggle. I see a lot of people try to do it but I’ve yet to see anyone make any long term money at it.

    1. David Silver

      The best thing about the PM breakout is that CNBC not the media masses aren’t really reporting it which I find absolutely confounding however this is the catalyst of continued upside IMO and when it happens then you sell into the late dumb money rally then replant your seeds to and fro.

  3. Erich

    Gary, Where do you see GDX by end of 2016? about 6 weeks ago I bought some Jan ’17 GDX calls and plan to hold til expiration.

    1. gary Post author

      I have no idea that far out. I will try to guide subs in at intermediate bottoms and out at intermediate tops as best I can.

      1. Tushar

        Gary, $XEU can’t hold (break up but not able to hold above) 200 daily EMA for the third time since mid August!

  4. Stefan

    For the record I am all in, in gold and silver miners since Oct 1st. However very smart people say that we have another downturn left in this bear. Why not sell and buy back your miners at 30-40% discount?

    Two very important cycles tells us that there is a low coming in the future, and neither of them has missed a low since the beginning of 1970, thats a trackrecord worth some respect imho.

    1. David Silver

      Be my guest just do what your gut instinct or stay with whatever your grand master plan investment objective. Just don’t be fooled by the media and keep tight stops.

  5. MuffinTop

    Both the NYSE and the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillators are in ‘overbought’ territory.. Expect a short term decline in Stocks!

    1. AlexP

      Well, MuffinTop, I think it’s normal for oscillators to get overextended in the bud of a new multi-year trend.

      I doubt we will see any imminent pullback but at best stocks to pace their up-pace, so to say, just to throw dojis onto the daily chart while, as Gary already commented, USD is on minor trend and gold falls into HCL.

      Otherwise stocks are gonna see up and up for the next couple of weeks on minor pullbacks next week while … producing the bearish divergences I commented upon on Monday 😉
      CONCLUSION: If you wait for that McMillan to cool NOW…you’ve lost a marvelous entry last evening (which I called entering the market) or this morning

      1. MuffinTop

        Not sure I agree with your prognosis Alex.. Yes I’m rather Bullish (SPY/S&P) in the medium to long term but I expect a minor pull back in the short term – a perfect opportunity to add to an already existing position. In fact, the S&P is already (as we speak) showing signs of weakness…

        Let’s see what happens 🙂

  6. AlexP

    Now it is 12:45 EDT !
    SP500 has just shaken out today some of the last small bears AS IT FORMED AN INTRADAY BULLISH HARMONIC PATTERN !
    Please mind that this is an extremely strong and powerful development, MT.

    Stocks are on the verge to break strong out of the C-point [or pivot] of the harmonic.
    Exactly the same had happened on the FOMC minutes release day!


    PS: $ABMD has acted perfectly today, so lovely!

    1. MuffinTop

      Alex, my good man .. relax! This is not a competition 🙂

      And I’m gonna go ahead and recommend a little common sense.. eventually stocks are gonna re-trace and right now they’re showing signs of exhaustion at resistance (Sept 17th high) which means they may or may not make it all the way up to the 200 MA, at least not right away. Expect a pull-back anytime soon and add to that position for the ride back up.

      That’s what I’m recommending – take it or leave it..!

      1. AlexP

        Thank you, MT 🙂
        though I’m not gonna add anything more, I’ve made my fill for this DC.
        I’ll keep the cash-bullets for November DCL

  7. AlexP

    200dma = next target for stocks –> it will be a very easy one 🙂

    I’m buying in for the 2nd time tonight (it’s night in Bucharest, Romania) and the 3rd since yesterday after Beige Book release

  8. David Silver

    Just imagine the fundamental aspect going forward in miners that will help propel going forward when earnings come out quarter vs.quarter and year over year that Mr. Savage does not include in his analysis with the price increase in metals just as energy with crude pricing.

    US Indices are embarking an upset with the odd makers in Vegas and Walk Street. China will and has been their kissing cousin effect.

    Let the good times roll.

  9. Jay


    Most folks around here would be better off dollar cost averaging into the S & P rather than trying to trade in and out of volatile sector ETFs like GDX. Or, just staying long the S & P when it is above the 12 month simple moving average, and exiting when it closes below that average would work better for most people here than getting chopped up trying to trade in and out of GDX, with or without Gary’s trading signals. I’d take the two methods I just described above over trading in and out of GDX (and the like) if those were my only choices in trading. 🙂

    1. MuffinTop

      I appreciate that but I don’t remember saying anything about trading in and out of GDX and getting chopped up in the process. I (personally) hold two portfolios: The first, I swing trade with for short term profits.. and the other, I apply a more long term approach and I re-balance if/when needed. That’s it. No day trading for me dude! Makes me sweat too much.

      And just so we’re clear.. I don’t use Gary’s trading signals – I use my own. Gary is one of many Analysts that I follow with huge interest because his ideas and his research not only make sense to me but often echoe what I think and how I feel about the current state of the Market – know what I mean?

      1. Jay

        Okay, makes sense. I wasn’t suggesting that anyone here is daytrading, however I was suggesting that most people here get chopped up or trapped….or at least underperform the S & P substantially over the long haul.

        Also, “most folks here” doesn’t mean you specifically. You may be doing a lot better than most people here, but I’d bet a lot of burritos that I’m correct about most other folks here either get chopped up or trapped and wind up substantially underperforming the S &P.

        1. gary Post author

          You are almost certainly correct about those trying to day trade. i’m not sure I’ve ever seen anyone make any long term money at it.

          1. tom

            There are guys that I know very well who have done it consistently for decades and I stood right next to them for 10 years, so I saw it in real time. You could count on one hand the number of losing days that my own mentor had – per year. But, your point is a good one, in that 90% + of the very short term traders lose it all and I saw that also.

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