26 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Stefan

    Yes HUI at 104 was probably the low for this bear market. I am not so sure about the metals, but miners was a screaming buy during summer. I’ve decided not to swing trade, just sit back and watch things unfold as planned.

    There is a lot of triggers this fall and winter for my miners, so if I try to trade them I probably will miss a rally and start chasing. No I choose the stressfree option to just sit back, I am very happy with my entry levels 🙂

    Ok, a number of analysts is expecting a deflationary crash and a perfect deflation cycle will not end until mid 2016 so we may see a retest of the low.

  2. MuffinTop

    It could go either way next week depending on Dollar behaviour, but I can totally see GDX toping out at $18, in which case I would wait patiently and look to add to my position at support (Sept 18th candle) around $14.65 – give or take 🙂 Bring it!

  3. AlexP

    I don’t like the reaction of Asian markets to slightly better than expected gdp data –> i’m moving stops into profit areas, close to closing prices for non-RUBI positions.
    SPX should deliver a higher high though next days (quite likely will be the DCH too) in order to render this DC right-translated and to produce the bearish divergence in some oscillators that havent don so far (MFI, RSI) an a second bearish divergence for the others.

    Unless I get stopped out on my new stops, I will sell there getting ready to meet a very rough DC decline in stocks

  4. Johan

    Hi Alex,

    I am interested in what you say about RUBI, they seem to be in a really interesting growth business. Why should one choose to invest in RUBI within that sector in your view?


  5. AlexP

    Several points to make on this and in general about investing now, at this moment, in stocks of what I think:
    1) about RUBI’s sector: sincerely, I do not understand exactly what RUBI’s business is about in detail and in general I do not get what literally all new companies do. For instance, I touted here last week at the opening of the session on Thursday that I had bought Abiomed (ABMD) after Beige Book; it was some 86 at that moment and now it is some 93 bucks.
    What did I now about its activities ? Only that it does something great in heart surgeries but otherwise I do not understand the business. IT’S ALL TOO HI-TECH FOR MY COMPREHENSION. But I still do some profit on that little domain-related knowledge.

    The same with RUBI. All I know is that they do something unique about advertising online and that they are somehow doing it in the cloud. I DO NOT KNOW THE SPECIFICS AND I DO NOT CARE 🙂

    2) As far as I could sniff, I think BIOTECHS and CLOUD-related businesses will be the hype of the new bull market (if we are indeed in the bull market and we are going to see that 99% how stocks fall in this DC). I do not understand the technical specifics of these domains but I see how stocks clustered in these sub-sectors are moving.

    3) Unlike, last week, now we have new information on stock markets –> ASIAN MARKETS HAVE FALLEN ON ABOVE-EXPECTATIONS GDP RESULTS IN CHINA!
    I personally think that this makes an important technical information –> DCH AND DISTRIBUTION IN STOCKS ARE CLOSE!
    So, I would not consider buying stocks now (not even RUBI or other great stock) but in early November as pessimism grips world media again and DCL nears around Employment Situation on the 7th.
    I have my stop put on RUBI too (below its 50dma), so if it gets hit, I’ll attempt a re-entry in November.
    I also stand ready to dump my other biotech positions on profit with closer stops put there just in case…

    1. Johan

      Great stuff Alex, thanks a lot!

      I am also looking for stocks turning down here, and will be looking at RUBI at the DCL then:)

      I also like GILD within biotechs, so maybe that too would be good to enter around the same time.

  6. AlexP

    yes, GILD looks interesting.

    on continuum with the Asian markets, I see now that the European ones are getting slammed by institutions selling into strength.
    Distribution has started. I’ll dump my non-RUBI positions at the open of US market.
    It is most likely to have a higher high on Thursday/Friday to render this DC right-translated as institutions stop selling to allow retailers to buy on futile weakness, but that’s risky business…I take off the table what I have at the opening

  7. AlexP

    Johan, now that I’ve dumped all my non-rubi stocks, I’ve taken a better look at GILD….
    Personally I think it lacks a high degree accumulation during weakness that I like to see in a stock before buying … It’s just my personal opinion since you’ve thrown that stock at me.

    ABMD had it, CMN also had it before I bought them for instance, I also saw the same thing to come in for RUBI and particularly very strong on Friday during last hour or so of the session (it was particularly interesting to see that that accumulation came in while the whole day appears to look like a distribution day – clear camouflage by a savvy trader of ROSS or RENEISSANCE), but for … GILD, I see good healthy accumulation all right but not …. EXCEPTIONAL.

    Accumulation is my foremost thing I look at when reviewing a stocks, searching for footprints of money managers hidden on purpose (just as it happened on Friday with RUBI). Everything else on a stock comes after in my picking system.
    and I may be wrong on GILD but that’s just me.

  8. Johan

    Hi Alex,

    interesting, so how do you account for accumulation – what is the indicators you use to judge if there is accumulation or not? Or is that proprietary…?:)

  9. AlexP

    🙂 there is no such thing as proprietary. Except for buying during within shakeouts produced by money managers during certain days that qualify, nothing of what I’m doing is original.

    I would split it in two parts:
    I look at daily volumes, MFI, ADL and relative strength depending on the state of the market for that particular stock, which I investigate using the notorious ADX.
    I do not have precise figures which I want to see, the way I do is discretionary, but I can get the overall picture.
    Then I dive into the difficult part:
    2) THE SPECIFIC PIC: I look at the stock everyday and I see how that stock is accumulated or distributed and I correlate that info with the general state of the broad market –> the way I have explained that I saw RUBI in accumulation on Friday, even though a software would brand that day as distribution day, is an example.

  10. David Silver

    I guess it is healthy and promising that at least gold bounced off her technical breakout launch via her August 24th high like that of an uptrending equity.

    1. gary Post author

      We timed it perfectly and took profits on most of our metal positions Friday. Traders got another opportunity to exit first thing this morning.

      I said not to chase the move here. To wait for a pullback.

      The SMT metal portfolio is now up 20% for the year. The miners are down 24% for the year. We are outperforming the miners by 44%.

      That seems pretty respectable to me???

  11. Bill in Tokyo

    Gary’s got the Plan – thanks!

    Looks like GDX has already started to correct.

    And the 1 hr chart of $SPX looks like it’s about to correct, too.

    Some BM’s are already deep into their correction – AA, FCX.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      UUP looks to me like this small bounce so far is just a backtest of the breakdown – I expect it to peter out in a few days, and continue down

      … further supporting the idea that GDX’s correction may not last long either – maybe a few more days and then the 1st major daily higher low – confirmation for me of a bottom

  12. Super Mario

    Miners crushed, UVXY crushed, market green, and all is well in the world of blatant central bank intervention. There is NO top.

  13. William

    Well, GDX is only slightly short of my correction target at 15.50-ish. However, given that today’s low at 15.61 is just a little distance away from Fibo.38.2% correction target at 15.57 (from the base at the end of Sept) and the price is right atop its 100D-EMA, i think we are pretty much done here for now!

    Won’t be surprise that a turnaround is happening from here with HUI trying to test 145-ish level in coming days!

      1. gary Post author

        Hard to say. If the metals are starting a move down into a daily cycle low then we aren’t done. DCL’s don’t bottom until everyone is freaking out. That’s how you know it’s a DCL. If you are still in a buy the dip mentality it’s not the DCL. DCL’s only occur with everyone too afraid to pull the trigger.

        1. William

          Agreed. The caveat here is that gold hasn’t seem to confirm a further downward move given its shallow correction, i.e a bullish indication at the very least.

          Also, DXY tested its horizontal resistance at 95 bit it’s moving lower now…hardly a strength to moving up further?

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