55 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Jay

    Gold should eventually go below $1000 an ounce again, but I can’t tell you exactly when….nor can anyone else. 🙂

    1. bill

      Gold should eventually go below $2000 an ounce again, but I can’t tell you exactly when….nor can anyone else.

      And it may rain or it may not…it could snow.

    2. Tech_trac

      the only way AU will see sub $1000 again is IF commodities continue to decline
      right now AU @ $1166, is sporting only a 10% Safe Haven Premium over its Commodity Value
      since 2011 AU has only fallen below its CVAu a couple of times & even then only briefly

      So keep 1 eye on AU & the other on Commodities.

  2. MuffinTop

    I’d love to see Gold bounce off the trend line (1130) but not sure if that’s gonna happen, especially since Gold was able to hold it together rather well considering today’s overzealous US dollar. Thinking 1155 at the most now before another leg up.. which means I might have to move up my ‘buy up to’ price on GDX/NUGT, if I want to add to my current position that is.

    Oil looking rather steady. Picked up some more HOU [Horizons BetaPro Crude Oil Bull+ ETF] at support.

    1. William

      I think the testing of Fibo.38.2% circa 1,158 is not gonna happened. Last night’s correction was as close as we could get to…one simple reason is that DXY is way to overbought and it’s banging the weekly vertical resistance line of its upper pennant already…

      1. MuffinTop

        You’re probably right unless we get a ‘gap up’ for the Dollar to scare the shit out of everyone.. Wouldn’t surprise me 😉

  3. David Silver

    Thank you for the report.

    William in hindsight I should’ve just kept with my game plan by staying long in commodities and stocks.

      1. David Silver

        I owned 12% of AMZN!

        It’s all good long crude and the Shanghai, may redabble in my favorite miner. Hate the ETF”a.

  4. Gback

    Gold held up really well considering how much the dollar rose today. Something seems out of sync here, either the dollar comes back down or gold starts to drop

    1. gary Post author

      Or they both just go up together. A rising dollar was never the reason for gold to enter a bear market. The bear market was created by the bullion banks to manufacture as destructive a bear market as possible before the third phase of the gold bull starts. The bigger the bear the bigger the bull that follows.

      Just because the dollar is strong against the euro doesn’t mean there is deflation in the world or the money supply is shrinking.

      Now that the banks have accomplished their goal and driven the XAU down to the 2002 lows they should get out of the way and the manipulation should stop.

  5. Jorgy

    Nothing to see here folks… Move along until the setup is cleaner. Optimism in gold jumped to 42% while silver jumped to 62% so it’s too risky to put on a heavy long trade in gold, silver and the miners ahead of the FOMC and the Bank of Japan’s meetings next week. Damn these markets are a mess… I’m going back to sleep! ?

  6. Hong Bang

    Hi William,

    I’m open to the possibility of an extended USD rally. So Gold may go to 1130 first.

    Keltner Band suggest Gold will go down next week. Monday, Tuesday size way move & then o push down.


  7. Hong Bang

    Hope that you are right !!!

    I’m wrong before & maybe wrong also thí time.

    But keep that scenario in case for the day trading.

    1. AlexP

      yeap, dear William. I am convinced this daily cycle in USD will be right translated and that Aug24 was an YCL.
      Why ?
      Correlation USD-SPX should go negative next week (now it is simply too positive, it must cool down) while SPX are overextended and are entering the time band for going into their DC decline, so …. whre can USD go?! ONLY UP WHILE USD ITSELF IS ALREADY NOW ON DAY 6 AND IN ONE WEEK FROM NOW WILL BE ON DAY 11 –> right transalation is assured.

      PS: I’ll dump my stocks today on strength, I expect to see some kind of exhaustion gap-up in stocks. TIGHTENING BELTS FOR A TREMENDOUS DECLINE IN STOCKS. Too much complacency now, bearish divergences across the board, in some double bearish diverg.

  8. William

    Gold has quietly gone back up above its immediate resistance of 1,168, trading at 1,173 and trying to take regain 200D-SMA territory!

  9. AlexP

    William, thank you for the charts! very suggestive & professional !
    Yes, indeed confirmation, rigorous follow-through for stocks is needed as you said, but there’s nowhere it can come for — surprising distribution out of some US stock market leaders (biotechs included) commenced yesterday out of the blue – clear selling into strength of smart money, while CONSUMER STAPLES triumphed.

    VIX also barely moves away from its 200dma …. AND ESPECIALLY IT IS FORMING A HUUUGE BULLISH HARMONIC…. bullishness in VIX = bearishness in SPX.

    that breakout in stocks in your chart, indeed, as you expressed your doubts, looks like a shakeout to be exposed next week 😉

    1. AlexP

      ….VIX needs to go up to some 27-28 from its current 14.45.
      resistance for vix at 27 will make one of the signs I want to see to 99% confirm this new bull in stocks

      1. William

        No problem Alex…this is just a quick way of keeping track of my view and it helps when i look back on hindsight as to how far right or wrong have i been…

        Agree that the usual calm-before-the-storm of VIX is brewing something beneath the surface and is ready to pop soon!

        Have fun!

        1. AlexP

          one word of caution which embraces nicely with the new medium-term long bullish USD: yesterday CRB index produced a swing low !
          CRB may go higher through the next week to produce a DCH (most likely on FOMC) and then …. produce a failed daily cycle.

          So, I expect weakness in commodities after FOMC.
          After going 100% cash later at the opening, I will start searching for accumulating some treasuries, via TLT, next week

  10. AlexP

    ….so, William, on continuum with my reply above, this renewed strength in commodities that we all see (crude oil’s strength is even remarkable considering the last inventory report) MAKES A LAST CHANCE FOR COMMODITY BULLS TO PUSH THE “SELL” BUTTON until CRB index meets its DCH next week.

    and the more unlikely the fall of commodities into an intermediate cycle low to prove extended seems to people….the more likely it is to be that way 🙂

    1. William

      Alex, looks like we’re on the same time-frame regarding Gold as i won’t expect it to be successful in the 1st attempt to test the mother-of-all vertical resistance line since 2011.

      On daily chart, the resistance is circa $1,195-ish…would expect a test of this soon but with a sell-off thereafter!

  11. AlexP

    I hope to see TLT below 121.66 (its HCL) on a shakeout (a hammer candle or the like) by Wednesday as commodities move higher into their DCH.
    That will be bonds’ DCL and I’ll buy there 🙂

  12. Trond

    Alex, oftentimes gold rallies for 15 days until the major Diwali gold buying marriage festival of the Hindu, which this yeas falls on 11 of November. Some times it tops out 2-3 days before. (And this fall the harvest crop in India have been plentiful due to ample monsoon rain..).
    So I was expecting a low 23 October, like in 2007 (another pre-election year, gold is often very strong during the Autumn of pre-election years (1979, 2007, 2011, 1999, 2003 – for instance..)

    1. AlexP

      Thank you, Trond.
      You may be quite right for gold especially since you rely your words on statistical evidence, which I keep at high esteem.
      These bullish fundamental arguments for gold may support it and give it a boost lagging the commodity spectrum (an exception even since gold usually leads CRB index) or …. this bullish information data may already be discounted by gold’s price or ….. USD being more expensive inflates the price of gold in Indian rupiah, offsetting at least part of the monsoon-driven wealth effect.

      Either way, lagging or leading commodities, USD having set its YCL on AUG24 and bow being in search for its YCH (a natural correction is warranted for the beginning of next week, though, when stocks should also fall deeply) …. SHOULD BE WORRISOME DATA FOR GOLD & COMMODITY BULLS, I think.
      You can re-read my posts here and you will see I have also been a strong USD bear, but since yesterday’s action and considering the inter-market context I have described….puts me now into USD-bulls camp (until signs of exhaustion at YCH arise).

  13. William

    On HUI, the resistance testing target is 145 or less to be conservative! Would be really surprised if i can go pass 145 on first testing attempt!

  14. AlexP

    Sell all stocks shortly after opening and go 100% in cash (inverted stock etfs for people without patiente)! I will dump my long-term play RUBI too.

    Monday & Tuesday both USD & SPX to fall, except that stocks will be in a TREMEDNOUS daily cycle decline to retreat some 55% while USD will be only on a “natural reaction”, as Jesse Livermore called it

  15. Paul

    Alex if the SPX falls hard into monday and tuesday will this drag GDX down too or will a flight to gold boost GDX ?

    1. AlexP

      I do not follow GDX at all, sorry I cannot be of help.
      Books on inter-market relationships write that miners tend to lead gold so that looking at miners is a good way to see what commodities may be doing but I personally do not find miners useful for my stocks trading or for my occasional SPY puts writing.
      I rarely go into gold, sometimes into TLT and my spectrum for trading stops here 🙂

    1. AlexP

      Thank you, Paul! I hadn’t seen that precious info.
      I’ll delay my stocks’ dumping a little longer into today’s session –> I’ll do it on the first sign of distribution.
      I’m going to be hawkish on sectors rotation movements; yesterday was a first day in this daily cycle that I saw such underwater motion

    1. AlexP

      oooh, paul, there are many…there have been written books touching the topic at least partially: intraday patterns, volume trend, and oscillators producing divergences while ADX’s DI+ goes above 30 on daily chart of SPX, watching also the intraday movement of VIX at the same time.

  16. Trond

    Alex, you were right about the major dollar low prediction this week, but now it has met the target (exceeded it somewhat) of its multi day reverse-hs formation + is now exactly at the top of its multi month sideways trading range, so see if it can break thru that range (resistance..)
    Well, the indian rupee incedibly has rallied 10% against usd since mid 2014 (!!), and also this year, so gold in Rupee is very cheap. Rupee is one of the strongest currencies lately.
    In January-February 2009 and May-June 2010 gold increased with a rallying dollar, just sayin..
    Follow Japanese Yen, gold often moves with yen (and Yen – opposite the stock market due to the Yen-sharemarket carry-trade)

    1. AlexP

      then you may be quite right, Trond.
      but USD moving into its YCH …. is something that, if were a commodities trader, would make me dump gold into this strength, regardless of any other arguments, while watching the show as well as for other trading opportunities, from the sidelines.
      This is all I am saying

  17. Trond

    Draghis’ dowish view cant be too different from the Fed. They use the same premises and respect ea.o. Therefore next days the markets could start anticipating no Fed rate increase this month and the $ might start to weaken again

    1. AlexP

      no-FED-hike is already discounted by the market; Lady Market has had 3 occasions: dovish employment situation earlier this month + fomc minutes + beige book. And it did show discounting them.
      Now, on FOMC next week, it will be no surprise, but only naïve retailers selling the dollar in the first minutes after FOMC stmt and smart money buying the greenback higher to render the MONTHLY SWING LOW ABOVE 98.44

    1. AlexP

      I have no idea but, knowing myself, I know one thing for sure: I would not be in gold or commodities now even if a commodity trader 🙂

  18. AlexP

    USD HAS JUST PUT IN A HIGHER HIGH! WE HAVE HIGHER HIGHS across intermediary cycles –> clearly USD is NOT gonna stop its upthrust in the couple of several months at least

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