58 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

    1. gary Post author

      Well USO is a derivitive of oil so it will just follow oil. But the energy stocks are leading, as are the miners. Look at the last two days. Gold was been down, yet the miners rallied 4%.

      There are lots of junior miners exhibting massive basing patterns and some like SA are already breaking out.

      Everyone is still focused on the bear market that they are missing the changes happening in this sector.

  1. David Silver

    Thank you so much for tbe elaborate yet simplistic anlaysis that is your successful marque.

    What’s so fascinating and interesting to me is how I allign my same thoughts with the master i.e. gold $1230 and crude $59.07.

    As always appreciate all the time and energy you devote here.

  2. George

    Gary do you to see the latest COT data as being a negative for both gold and silver in the short term?

    1. gary Post author

      Maybe yes, maybe no. I’ve seen the COT data reach max bearish levels and gold continue to rally for another 200 points.

      If gold continues to rally despite the bearish COT it would be a good sign the bear is over.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        I was starting to think the same thing about COT and gold. Gold’s been going down for like 4 yrs now, so comparing COT peaks now w/the last 6-12 mos isn’t objective, and COT now being higher than those recent peaks could mean as Gary said that COT is *confirming* that the bottom is in, and that smart money has *already* piled in, as evinced by volume in NUGT etc.

  3. AlexP

    Johan, Tulip, pls see my replies to your questions in the other post.
    Have a great week. I’ll personnaly hunt an entry in TLT after FOMC meeting if my expectation for USD going into YCH is confirmed by Lady Market.

  4. Bill in Tokyo

    I think Gary’s spot on w/regard to the overall trend of gold changing.

    In the very short term though, using hourly charts, or even close (candle-level) inspection of daily charts is, I wouldn’t be surprised of we see a small pullback 1st.

    Facts are, on Friday, GDX went up whereas GLD went down. GDX is a conglomeration of major producers, and upon inspection of the top 3, one can see that ABX and GG have *not* broken out yet – however, NEM has.

    Also, although patterns don’t always play out, one can see a mini H&S on the hourly GDX chart, suggesting a small downward move 1st, then on an upward as Gary says.

    I’m not predicting anything – just pointing out stuff that I see, and as always I’ll attempt to follow price. Esp. now that GLD and GDX are in new daily uptrends.

  5. David Silver

    Thinking light trading overseas whipsawing then MM’s take it down to the $43’s near the open then ramp her up all day.

  6. AlexP

    all right, people. It’s Monday morning.
    My expectations presented in the former prior of Gary show budding achievements:
    – SPX futures alongside USX are down -0.20% (the first bullet under my short-term forecast)
    – fold and oil are up into their new daily cycle (the last bullet under my short-term forecast).

    People, you have time to get off the gold bull by Wednesday.

    1. AlexP

      I doubt it. Despite USD’s further growth to come, I doubt we are to see a lower low in gold but just the first ICL.
      Yearly cycle high in USD will come in pretty quickly (most likely first week of December or by beginning of January the latest) and gold will renew its growth soon after that YCH in USD while USD will fall.
      So, I am personally in gold:
      – bullish till early Wednesday (most likely Asian markets will set the daily cycle high)
      – bearish afterwards
      – bullish after the YCH in USD is set.

    1. AlexP

      I don’t know but I can roughly suspect it may come at around 1120.
      ICH in gold to be set on Wednesday at around 1200 (most likely in Asian trading).

      1. AlexP

        ….yes, it will not be a big dive in gold price. In January, in the hindsight, it will all look like a ranging market, I think.
        A tedious bottoming process as USD moves towards its YCH.
        The bear market in gold will be regarded as a U-shaped one instead of V-

  7. AlexP

    ….but, while gold will look extremely boring, stocks will sprout aggressively off the DCL to come in 2 weeks through year-end

  8. gary Post author

    I think it’s time for everything to go up together, just like it did from 2002 to 2007, and again from 2009 to 2011.

  9. Paul

    So to summarise and help me out of my confusion Gary,we could be looking at 1230 by November then down through November into December for the ‘ Scary Shake out’ as you put it then onwards and upwards as the $ declines ?

  10. David Silver

    See how the MM’s like to take crude to the extreme depending on the scenario more times than not near the open? I’ve seen this taoe action since last December.

    1. David Silver

      In hindsight i shouldve known better to save my dry powder for the open come Monday from Friday’s lower intraday action.

  11. William

    Gold’s not moving while GDX is correcting just as expecting…I was expecting 16.20 to be a good support but, after having another look at the daily chart, it seems like 15.80 looks like a better bet…

    Stay watching…for now.

  12. zkotpen

    I’ve been thinking GDX & gold are moving toward their DCL’s Tue/Wed — hard to say, but maybe marginal lower lows — ~15.50’s and 1157-58. Then a move up maybe $3 for GDX, $90-100 for gold…

  13. zkotpen

    William — I concur with GDX 15.59…

    Good trade you had on Friday — taking the bait out of the bull trap, and getting out before it slammed you!

    1. William

      I was lucky enough as the decision was made right after my late night drinking session while i was still sober!!!

    1. AlexP

      it is more likely, ill, that by mid day SPX will go higher to ~1976 and the real fall to start from there πŸ™‚

      1. William

        if GDX can rally pass 16.35, chances are we have seen the bottom for now and ready to head higher, otherwise it needs to take down below 16.20 decisively as it has just been tested 3 times…in order to head much lower below $16…

        we’ll see…

  14. Dan

    Bubble phase with a collapsing economy and commodities rolling over lol. A crash worse than 2008 is just around the corner. 90 % cash, 5% silver and 5% in SPY Puts. Keep banning me though.

  15. bhowe

    Trying to decide when to move cash into the SPX500! Timing is everything. Anyone want to take a guess at this? AlexP, Gary, others?

  16. David Silver

    Today pretty much flat to slightly negative as predicted over the weekend then we resume higher Tuesday thru end of year to test all time highs IMO since 8/24 was the bottom.

  17. AlexP

    as I said above, SPX moved to 2074.

    Tomorrow SPX will move further down via a gap-down and fill in the EXHAUSTION gap-up it made on Friday so that today and Friday will form a bearish island reversal,


    Wednesday to go higher a bit further and shorts to reinitiated after FOMC meeting

  18. AlexP

    …and off the shorts go πŸ™‚
    Bill, expect some support and fighting arround 2068 and after that the decline would resume.
    a short retracement will ensue and after that is completed…….RAPID FALL INTO THE CLOSING AND FURTHER NEXT DAY

    1. victor

      oh Alex, those who in trading daily at least 3 years would understand what is behind your words of reading SPX like this…, years and years staring into the daily chart moves…

      1. victor

        I also build my own timing chart of SPX move: based on 9:30am, 9:45, 11:45, 3:30pm on up moves, then the same but 2:30 – 3pm down…

    1. tulip

      from zero hedge – goldman
      Operational & Financial Stress Unavoidable For Energy Names, Goldman Warns Distillate Storage “Too Full For Comfort”
      Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/26/2015 – 15:05
      Distillate storage utilization in the US and Europe is nearing historically high levels, following near record refinery utilization, only modest demand growth (especially relative to gasoline), and increased imports from the East on refinery expansion and Chinese exports. As Goldman warns, this raises the spectre of 1998/2009 when distillate storage hit capacity, pushing runs and crude oil prices sharply lower. This also raises the question of whether today’s oil market can rebalance through financial stress – prices remaining near their current low level through 2016 – or if operational stress – breaching storage capacity and forcing prices below cash costs – is unavoidable.

      1. victor

        I would not touch oil until something major develops. To add to Tolip words there’s also political issue with Russia, powers want it to have economic crisis, oil prices more then important for Russia…

        1. David Silver

          Jesus i hope overseas/overnight market takes it to $43.21 and bounces or i made a very grave mistske last Thursday and Friday trying to play genuis.

  19. victor

    look at this … “they” don’t want and don’t allow market to fall…, period. All of our market knowledge goes under dog’s tail when there’s billion of $$$ pumping into …

    1. William

      If this is proven to be valid, i.e a breakout from the right handle, the target is an explosive 25% for GDX!

      1. William

        This move would also break the vertical downtrend line since 2011 while being stopped right at 400D-EMA…all in one kind of thing!

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