79 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. David Silver

    Awesome to hear! Perhaps I can muster up one more bullet perhaps on further weakness tomorrow.

    Appreciate your continued analysis and confidence Mr. Savage.

      1. MuffinTop

        HOU — ‘Horizons Betapro Crude Oil +’ is my weapon of choice when playing with Oil but you gotta keep a tight ‘stop-loss’ with this one ?

  2. David Silver

    Clive Maund also gave the buy signal today premarket on energy across the board hence my continued bullishness.

  3. Jonathan

    XOM and CVX reports are due on this Friday. Last time the oil giants missed, would be very interesting to see this time.

  4. William

    WTI daily chart is a tact messy, but, its weekly chart seems to be churning out a reversed H&S pattern!

  5. William

    In order of sequence, XAU bottomed in Oct 2008, WTI bottomed in Dec 2008 while equities only bottomed in Mar 2009…

    DejaVu in the making? It certainly seems that XAU has bottomed ahead of WTI and the latter is playing catch up!

  6. gary Post author

    Gold does have a tendency to bottom slightly ahead of the rest of the commodity complex. It will often sniff out QE ahead of the pack.

  7. Don

    Gary, you rarely mention natural gas. It’s making deep low just before a time of seasonal strength. Do you see any potential for profit in that commodity?

  8. emma

    this guy who is very accurate => http://www.bit.ly/1S7sxxs

    he says market may have cycle bottom, but crude will go down some more.

    I think with QE crack on toast, europe might be a good place to invest at the moment. Italy, spain, france, eurostoxx50

  9. David Silver

    It may have just printed an overnight intraday low like it did on 8/24 overseas (I remember that night very well)!

  10. Bill

    Still short SPY, I held overnight due to the news of Obama sending warships over to China, and the GREECE debt default once again…and the irrational exuberance is high…

  11. AlexP

    All this bullishness in gold & commodities will kill many…

    Stocks to extend their decline, not at the pace I had expected, it is true, but weakness is there.
    Tomorrow evening the positive correlation btw USD and SPX will turn negative, with stocks heading South and USD Northwards.
    Another bearish stocks report in CRUDE OIl will suffice to throw CRB index in an intermediary decline, killing the bulls medium turn (i.e. until USD finds its YCH later)

      1. David Silver

        This may very well be the undercut low that panic out the weak.

        Also the MM’s like to do this more times than not at top or bottom junctures more times than not at the open whereas i was wrong with that thinking Monday.

    1. AlexP

      exactly, David.
      And I also presume that there were many bulls saying “this is the last red candle on the daily chart, tomorrow it will be green.” … and then repeating the same hopeless thing on the next day, and then on the one after and so on.

      Though. gold will keep on shining today and tomorrow. AS I SAID YESTERDAY AN ON SUNDAY: BULL,S THIS IS A LAST CHANCE TO DUMP GOLD AND COMMODITIES until December at least!”

      1. bhowe

        Sounds contradicting “gold will keep on shining today and tomorrow” and ” THIS IS A LAST CHANCE TO DUMP GOLD”?

        1. AlexP

          it is not contradicting at all –> it means to use this last strength of the market to sell before weakness kicks in

    1. AlexP

      …maybe gold sniffs the bear in commodities’ complex even earlier than I’ve expected 🙂
      why should anybody be a commodity bull now, I really do not get it…

        1. AlexP

          It’s no shakeout, David.
          It is a real bear walking, begot by USD’s search for its yearly cycle high

  12. David Silver

    Chanced the open, too much damage too quickly from all last week till now.

    Time for a flip upwards.

  13. AlexP

    Tomorrow it will break into negative altogether … just as expected 🙂
    Poor commodity bulls! Meal for the bears as winter nears

  14. AlexP

    it’s already done: the USD-SPX correlation has just turned negative!

    Gold is in its day 2 of its daily cycle decline and it will set its DCH, swing low and DC trendline break (confirming the new DC) tomorrow on day 3.
    As I said on Sunday and all my expectations set there have already occurred (except that Nasdaq didn’t produce a bearish abandoned baby yesterday as weakness came in softer): WEDNESDAY IS THE LAST DAY TO DUMP GOLD.

  15. William

    There you go, GDX bottomed at 15.79…I think this is as close as you could get to Fibo.38.2% at 15.50-ish…happy riding!

  16. AlexP

    bought back my RUBI (rubicon project) share into weakness. tomorrow to report astounding results.
    the rest is cash.

    now till tomorrow into FOMC, stocks and gold are in gear to move higher (DCH for gold) while USD to reach its HCL.

    1. AlexP

      Lady Market is now clearly shifting its mood towards the classic “Buy the FOMC-no-rate-hike rumor now, sell the no-rate-hike fact tomorrow”.

  17. Super Mario

    I bet (not really) that we get some super dovish BS statement tomorrow that blasts the conventionals to new highs.

  18. bhowe

    When a stock has made your target, and your ready to buy, what do you use to pick the timing? 15 minute chart? Higher Highs? MACD cross? What?

    1. AlexP

      I personally do not look at the stock movement to time my entry but at broad indexes’ movement WITHIN THE SET TRADING FRAMEWORK –> for instance, my current trading framework is the one I posted here, on Gary’s blog, on Sunday, which so far has acted very well (except that the falls yesterday and earlier today have not been but soft –> this may be an early indication though that this daily cycle decline in stocks into Nov6 wont be too large, but maybe only fib38).

      At the stock itself I only look to see that it is under accumulation throughout time and particularly during the recent past to show relative strength.
      For instance, take a look at the chart of RUBI and you will see the massive accumulation particularly yesterday while the market was distributing!

      1. bhowe

        Yes, but there was massive volume at the end of July, and RUBI dropped like a rock! Who can afford that draw down? -29%

        1. AlexP

          a drawdown of -29% is small. It is normal for a growth stock to undergo a fall up 3 times as large as that of the broad market: nasdaq fell from 5230 to 4300 in the same period, i.e. -18%.
          thus RUBI’s fall accounted for merely 1.7 times that of its relevant broad-market index !! 🙂
          that shows strength.

          additionally, when I meant accumulation, I refered through the last month and particularly yesterday.
          Even today we’ve seen strong relative strength intraday: NASDAQ has produced a lower low while RUBI has withheld

          1. AlexP

            …..when I say that -29% fall is small I mean that it is small for a growth stock during a multi-year cycle decline of the broad market !!!

  19. AlexP

    Stocks have just developed a very powerful BULLISH SETUP !
    This is the last gasp of the bull of this daily cycle in stocks before getting devoured by bears through the end of next week.


      1. AlexP

        I’m glad I’ve been helpful, Victor 🙂

        With so much bullish mood in commodities around here and elsewhere, after mid-day tomorrow, STAY OUT OF COMMODITIES, ANY COMMODITY!
        Even if any particular commodity may show growth in the hindsight, it is a risk not worthwhile taking on the time of the entry; HUNT ONLY BEST OPPORTUNITIES, not pet dreams.
        Good luck, Victor!

        1. MuffinTop

          I’m gonna go ahead and ‘respectfully’ call BS on this one Alex 🙂 There is an insurmountable amount of evidence right now suggesting a bottom in Commodities is in – roll with it!

          Also – and I’m gonna be blunt here so bare with me…
          I don’t mind the occasional commentary but you’re over-saturating this blog and it’s turning into the ‘AlexP’ show 😐

          I know, I know.. I’m probably in the minority and some of you will want to tell me to bugger off but Alex [my man] if you’re that gung ho and super keen in providing the ‘play by play’ then you really should consider creating your own blog and invite people to follow along. Do it.

          Just my two cents.

          1. victor

            That’s your “thank you” to experienced guy who is have been right on most of his calls…, “good job” MuffinTop…

        2. bhowe

          AlexP I love that you have a plan and stick with it. Many aren’t as sure of their ideas. I don’t know your track record, but I like your gusto

  20. AlexP

    Thank you, to you All! 🙂 both for the good and for the bad.
    One guy here has called me: “too smart by one half”. I think he was right.

    RUBI = up +2% on high volume and above both 50dma and 200dma on a weak market. NOW IT IS ASSURED TO HAVE BEEN FILTERED OUT ONTO THE SCREENS OF WALL STREET’S INVESTMENT ANALYSTS 🙂

    Victor, let’s number out our profits tomorrow 🙂

    1. AlexP

      ..one last word: those of you who may consider buying RUBI tomorrow but have not done so like Victor and I so far, please stay out! I will personally sell it all tomorrow before going long into TLT after FOMC stmt.
      Good luck!

    1. William

      Plus, the rally of GDX from the beginning of the month looks like a freaking “bull flag” and its target is incidentally similar to the cup-and-handle formation’s target i mentioned in my last post!!!

    1. AlexP

      tomorrow it will go higher alongside gold and stocks as USD falls in its half cycle low but I would personally clear that long-silver position into cash by mid-day.

  21. David Silver

    Crude strong into the close and stronger after hours. If we can hold above $43.30 then we are golden for the swing low confirmation change UP.

      1. David Silver

        Furthermore too much bearish sentiment everywhere, I’m in Mr. Savage’s camp i.e. contrarian investor here

  22. Jonathan

    Crazy after-hour action in AAPL and other reporting stocks, not for investors, not even for traders, for professional gamblers only.

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