65 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. bill

    Sold my SPY short at the close today, I’m not gambling on FED look how important we are, but really have no F’en clue what were do BS day, sitting in cash and adding to my core USO, GDX, CDE, EXK…

  2. Dave

    This is non sense. They are going to engineer a 20 dollar move down so they can run it back up? Just no way. They are call bankers right???

    1. gary Post author

      Maybe the bull flag just breaks upwards. It’s definitely a possibility.

      But I have to think they may be setting the metals up for an easy stop run and some nice pocket change by breaking the bull flag pattern before the cycle bottoms. In a secotr where the rules are no longer enforced one always has to consider what the most likely strategy the bankers will employ to make some short term cash and fleece as many traders as possible. Right now it seems like that would be to break the bull flag pattern that everyone is watching.

  3. zkotpen

    Gary,

    I believe that in either case you describe above, gold will move up at 2p.m. — the question becomes how far?

    In other words, I think your second scenario would have a quick lower high before turning down as you describe — pretty much what AlexP has been suggesting for the past day or two, much to the chagrin of a fanboy of yours 🙂

    1. gary Post author

      It’s way too late in gold’s daily cycle for Alex’s scenario to have much chance of playing out. It’s also way too late in the oil cycle for his commodity scenario to have very good odds of materializing.

      And it’s too early in the stock cycle for his SPX scenario to unfold. Yes stocks are due for some kind of correction into a half cycle low, but with the holiday buying season coming I really doubt the powers that be are going to allow any kind of serious correction to gain any traction. Plus the DCL isn’t due until right before Thanksgiving, not on November 6. What are the odds of the PPT sitting on the sidelines while stocks drop hard right in front of the biggest retail week of the year?

      Pretty slim in my opinion.

    1. William

      Updated with XAU’s 60mins that i think will continue to be the road map for gold in coming days…

  4. David Silver

    Think Mr. Savage and William correct here vs. Alex IMO:

    Gold, crude and US markets are all a go.

  5. MuffinTop

    Speaking of ‘Fanboyz’.. Gary: Could you create a private forum for Alex and his devotees? They desperately need it, and I desperately want to give it to them, Lol 🙂

    Automated Message: Please press ‘reply’ if you are foaming at the mouth and ready to unleash some good old fashion online vitriol.

    Starting with…

  6. Mr. Edge

    I am going with the scenario that Gary laid out earlier. Gold makes a run here close to the 100 week m. a. The bullion banks aren’t going to waste their powder on a 20 dollar move. They will wait until gold starts moving down within a natural cycle and then start blasting.

  7. mj12

    Hard to predict what the bullion banks will deal in the next 36 to 48 hours. But we do know they never lose. Ever. THE house can order their dealers to deal off the bottom, deal seconds, mark cards or do whatever it takes to “win”. No entity is better at cheating, stealing and raping…. than the “unaccountable”.

    Good fortune to everyone.

  8. David Silver

    You guys are all forgetting the far eastern powers that be are now long and bullish and will milk it for all it’s worth IMO.

    We’ve had the selling/consolidation phase now it’s up as William is hinting.

    Let Alex be, he”s good for us here and the game out there.

  9. Jorgy

    The market’s direction is clear as mud and I don’t think that is going to change anytime soon. Traders are going to continue getting whipsawed in/out as volatility continues to persist as central banks continue to fight a deflationary bust that the world desperately needs, but every banker desperately wishe to avoid. We get to see if the FED wishes to re-enter the Global Currency Wars tomorrow or whether they’re okay w/ a strong dollar? ?

  10. Trond

    Usually the good news are sold in a paradox that catches most traders flatfooted. But maybe that has just happened so often most of them are positioned for this. Then the most cunning and paradoxical tomorrow would be to rally long time after the good news w/ as few possible of the ‘smart-asses’ getting on board in time. But to trick the most sophisticated one that has prepared even for this maybe the hyper-trick would be to still sell the good news. (Or even e a still more calculated counter-counter- move 🙂

    It’s akin to when the police chases a prison refugee, first they think he must have run away downhill from the prison bec that’s easiest, and fastest fleeing. But hey, maybe he ran uphills because he thinks we will go after him in the most natural direction downhill? But then maybe he still ran downhill because he understand we would be smart enough to go after him uphill (+ that is also faster for him). But maybe he really ran uphill since he understood we would look thru his double-trick of running downhill? At last the police are so dizzy they’ll have to sit down on the spot without getting anywhere or managing to decide 🙂

  11. zkotpen

    FOMC meeting: Good for 1-3 reversals.

    The only meeting I can remember the past couple of years that produced 0 reversals was June, 2013.

  12. AlexP

    My trading framework laid out here on Sunday received additional support: TRAN and RUT have already started their daily cycle declines and they’ve done it DECISEVELY and on huge volume, yesterday.
    NYSE Composite also joined hands producing a swing high.
    Yesterday after mid-day, stocks’ bull in this daily cycle commenced his last fight.

    So, again, watch out what you’re buying, if you’re going to buy anything bullish today 🙂

  13. David Silver

    Overnight shenanigans has already started ladies and gents!

    Let the games begin and the good time roll. And don’t hate the players, hate the game.

  14. zkotpen

    AlexP

    Thanks for your warning on a bounce in gold, followed by a reversal — it tipped the scales for me on whether to take a long position in GDX at yesterday’s close. I felt the probabilities were not high enough, so I did nothing. Regardless of what happens, I’m pleased with my decision to wait. So, cheers mate!

  15. Paul

    Hi Gary
    Your gold chart from 13/10 now going to the 1200 area then AFTER fomc retracing to 1150 into DCL. Is this still the case ?

    1. William

      Given 1,190 to 1,200 as a key resistance for the downtrend resistance line since 2011, a retracement downward should be on the card on 1st attempt of testing this zone…

  16. Trond

    Now market first goes up to take out the buy-stops of the shorts, then pounces down to take out the s-l of the longs, then maybe it won’t drop hard as many fear but surprises everyone by going sideways-do-nothing after the FOMC so that both the call and put options lose out & only the super-calm ones owning butterfly-spread wins…

  17. Trond

    William, Newcrest as an Australian miner enjoy same price of gold as in 2011 measured in AUD + + Their bottom line – energy costs (oil) etc are lower. With the huge drop in AUD lately gold/aud has rallied hard increasing their profits lately more.

  18. Paul

    Thanks William so it looks as if Garys first scenario will come into play now and we drive up towards 1200 plus…I would imagine no interest rate rise today but strong hints about December so big retracement after 1220-24 perhaps.

  19. AlexP

    Looking forward to seeing gold rising above 1180 today –> that would produce a swing low and daily cycle trendline breakout thus confirming we are on day 3 of its new DC.
    Paradoxically 🙂 … that upside move will be very bearish information because gold will just need to move below 1164 on any of the next days (as USD will move out of its HCL today into its DCH) to produce a FAILED DAILY CYCLE and confirm the …. bear in gold is here via an intermediary cycle decline to last quite some time 🙂
    As I said on Monday, though, I do not expect to see gold produce a lower low but rather retreat to establish its ICL at around 1120 sometime in December.

    1. AlexP

      ….I’ve taken a quick look at CRB and WTIC too –> they seem ripe to produce swing lows today, rendering today later day 1 in their new daily cycle.
      Gold seems to have proven itself a leader in commodities complex again as it is to prove it is in 2 days ahead in its daily cycle.

      It will be very easy for crude oil to confirm its new DC via declining trendline break simply because the trendline is very steep.
      Resistance at 50dma of some 45.15 will most likely cap its daily cycle surge and establish its DCH quickly.

  20. Trond

    Alex is ultimately right (unfortunately) Connect the dots of the massive, scary commercials hedger’s short position in silver, the biggest in 5 years, with the objective signs that the $ seems finished with its 7 months consolidation and starting a new leg up – because these 2 dots are connected. However I thought that the gold price would be kept up during the brisk physical buying in India ahead of the Diwali festival since the demand is temporarily high, and that a marked breakdown will not take place until for instance by the employment report 6th of November. But that the other commodities might start turning down already now.
    We’ll see. Any remarks about a potential December rate rise may be the ‘trigger’ for $..

  21. Stefan

    meeehhh I am out of high leveraged certificates, added to my large position in KAMINAK yesterday.

    They are going to pour gold in 2019, great timing to the start of the impulsive part of the gold bull 🙂

    Just sitting back and watch things unfold, stressfree and very profitable long term !

    1. AlexP

      Reading your message, Stefan, made me remember the old days when I was playing junior mining and oil&gas stocks. Had some strong gains with XEL, MATD, AGQ (all London-listed) but I eventually got wiped out

  22. gary Post author

    Hmm, silver is breaking back above the 200 DMA and gold is trying to break upwards out of the flag. I really thought we would get one more early morning attack to drive out the pattern traders before the cycle low but it’s starting to look like the first scenario may play out.

  23. gary Post author

    If silver continues up and makes new highs despite the bearish COT levels, that is the bell ringing that the bear market is over.

    In bull markets the third and sometimes fourth daily cycles are the really strong cycles, whereas during the bear it was the second daily cycle that was the strong one. This has the potential to catch a lot of traders out, or underinvested during the strongest move of the intermediate cycle as everyone has become conditioned by the bear market to expect gold to roll over after the second cycle.

    1. gary Post author

      Not a chance I’m going to wait. The first rally out of a bear market bottom is where the biggest and quickest gains are made. That and during the final bubble phase. We are already up very big in the metals portfolio this year because I didn’t listen to the bears that have gotten conditioned by 4 year bear market.

      Like I said the third and fourth daily cycles are where the big gains are made during bull markets.

      You have to quit paying attention to people like Armstrong and Norcini etc. They made their fame during the bear market. They are not the analysts you want to watch to call the bottom. I’ve seen it happen time after time. When a big trend changes you need to find different gurus because the ones that got the previous trend right are never the ones that call the turn.

      1. Stefan

        No Gary you must read my posts a little bit more careful. This is not Armstrong I am following, this is Norman Greene (argentus maximus) an Irish analyst. For the record I am 80% in miners from 1st Oct. However this is NOT the end of the bear, we will see great weakness for another 3-6months. A top in Dec and a low late Feb 2016, but big strong cycles that predicted every low since 1970 says that this weakness will not end until mid 2016.

  24. Bill

    Lol, yup Oil rising as well, its always the loudest ones in a forum who are usually wrong! onward and upward Gary…

  25. AlexP

    Victor, I just sold my RUBI in 16.11
    it did not move the way it should despite its astonishing results.
    also other market leaders get slapped and I see underwater distribution
    This daily cycle bull is over

  26. gary Post author

    And there is the new high in silver. Folks the bear market is over. You have to quit thinking in terms of a bear market now and start trading this with bull market strategies.

    1. David

      That’s why the idea of a 20 dollar pullback is sort of silly especially if the bankers are going to run this higher…

  27. rcun

    Alex,
    Are you still thinking sell into the gold rally by noon today. I was planning to exit NUGT at 50 from a 40 entry. Looks like Gary has gone full bull now. Your thoughts are much appreciated.

  28. David Silver

    Congrats Mr. Savage a toast is in order to you.
    Here comes Gold $1230 and Crude $59.07.
    William congrats on your GDX grab too yesterday!

    Until then will be quiet here and not cheerlead.

    Cheers and take care all!

  29. victor

    Alex, didn’t have a chance to sell, just came from night shift… Q. why it behave like that? what is that we can’t see? I will accumulate even more when get a chance..

    1. AlexP

      Hi, Victor! Considering price action, I can suspect that it was a massive shakeout undertaken by Renaissance or ROSS & Co.
      Several minutes after I sold it out, the stock tumbled and there had been less than 150k traded before the bottom got hit. Ever since then the stock has been constantly rising on a MASSIVE volume which now looks …. 921k, i.e. nearly triple the volume 50dma !!! …and we are not even close to mid-session…

      Whatsoever, regardless of accumulation signs, I have a RISK MANAGEMENT RULE to dump or, as it is this case, not to touch again a stock that has fallen 2xATR from its prior close in just 1 day until an intermediary decline (ICL is hit) in SPX.
      Therefore, I will not buy it again, not even consider it for buying until the ICL in stocks I expect to come early February.

      1. AlexP

        Victor, you are already back into profit with the position you opened yesterday. I see it now at 15.81.
        I personally advise you to dump it as you still can at a profit because:
        – the bull of this daily cycle gave his last breath that I called yesterday, broad market is over-extended and should start correcting SOON,
        – RUBI itself should start to meet overhead supply soon and get hit by the rollover of SPX.

        CASH IS KING RIGHT NOW! I am 100% cash

        1. victor

          Thank you Alex, my morning tea turned into a loss…, saw it late 15.22 sold. will re-purchase at 14…

  30. MuffinTop

    Like I said in several of my previous posts on this Forum..
    The evidence of a bottom in the Metals is insurmountable, and yet some of you are still dicking around and worried about a $20 dollar drop in Gold — open your eyes! This is how you make real money in the Markets.

  31. Don

    It was a confusing day today with plenty of manipulation going on. Gold’s morning strength evaporated after a FED meeting that changed nothing. SELL!! Stocks were manipulated upward after initially being manipulated downward. The US dollar was manipulated upward in a big way and now has the shorts scrambling to cover. It was a crazy, but very profitable day for the manipulators.

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