69 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Paul

    Hi Gary

    Chart seems sensible enough but would this see GDX at $11 as certain ‘Experts’ proclaiming and by next wednesday !

    1. Jay

      I still think GDX could work its way down into single digits, but not necessarily by next week. πŸ™‚

  2. AlexP

    Paul, since you showed interest one week ago, you have an updated estimation of stocks’ retracement in 1-2 weeks to some 2010 for SP500 with a significant probability of a sub-2000 short shakeout.
    You have the arguments in Gary’s prior post today.

    1. William

      ABX and NEM are leading the charge. In fact, NEM never came down during the pre-market while GDX was being pushed down.

      1. David Silver

        King ABX and both NEM earnings momentum, my EGO is Friday.

        Fundamentals have shifted another feather in the hat for Mr. Savage’s bottom call.

      1. William

        Seeing a real disconnection here: ABX (+7.7%), NEM (+5%) while GDX (-1.5%), NUGT (-2.7%). Is “someone” trying to bash down GDX & NUGT in order to accumulate more shares? I must say i have never seen this before…

  3. AlexP

    yeap, William, it looks like a good trade:
    – gold contracted too much too fast in less than 24h
    – usd correlates positively with spx
    – spx to start or just strated its DC decline
    all bad news for usd and good for gold at least very short term

    1. AlexP

      ….watch out though for a reversal of the USD-SPX correlation tomorrow/Monday since the current one has been in place for several sessions already –> it’s ripe for turning negative, which, since SPX will be in its daily cycle decline, will be good news for USD (to produce its monthly swing low soon) and bad for gold [again] after a short respite today

  4. Jorgy

    Nothing but chop ‘n churning and getting whipsawed in and out. Might as well go back to sleep… ?

    1. AlexP

      yes, indeed.
      I would love, though, to see SPX moving into higher territory today; it would make a similar situation to yesterday’s in gold when I was forecasting that a climb above 1180 would, paradoxically, be very bearish data.

  5. David Silver

    Thinking the FIB 50% aka $1148.75 should be in check here, gonna scoop more EGO here on a limit for earnings and beyond.

      1. David Silver

        Tulip Mr. Savage’s 50% FIB holding here, nabbed some EGO on the cheap one penny from her intraday in time for earnings tomorrow pre market!

  6. Gregor

    Once again, Gary has done a very good job leading folks through short-term trading inflection points. The problem that’s not been solved yet is as follows: gold remains in a bear market. And it’s always the case that trying to pinpoint the end of a bear market is impossible. You really just have to wait until it ends, and then step in to profitably ride the uptrends over the next, say, 12-60 months. The opportunity loss until then involves the time and capital spent trying to call every wiggle in the bear market, as the final entry before the new bull market begins. There is just no evidence whatsoever the bear market in gold is over.

  7. AlexP

    Stock market bear is definately dead, beyond doubt – the market shows unusual resilience on overbought conditions –> under these circumstances, SPX pullback in the DCL to come is limited to some -4% and buying should come quickly as some selling climax arises next week and institutions will enforce shakeouts to acumulate –> WHEN YOU SEE MARKET PULLING BACK NEXT WEEK, YOU WILL KNOW THAT I AM BUYING BIG TIME ON THAT BROAD WEAKNESS!

    I plan on being 90% invested in stocks in 2 weeks time – the rest of 10% will be cushion cash

      1. William

        as i said $15 is as much as GDX “should” go given its cup-and-handle formation, won’t expect a reversal from here!

  8. bill

    This is a nice consolidation zone taking place here, I added more to my shares and bought physical which no one here ever advocates.

  9. AlexP

    good work, William! Finally I here about someone using stop-losses around here.
    For a professional/serious trader it is quite usual making small losses rationalized before making the purchase.
    This shows you have discipline and rigour, that you are fearless in admiting a rational loss.
    That diserves: Congratulations!

      1. AlexP

        πŸ™‚ healthy thinking! good work with your portfolio!
        I myself am going to sleep: it is 21:05 in Bucharest, Romania. I dont wanna think what time it may be in Malaysia πŸ™‚

        1. William

          hahahahha….3am here! I only woke up just now due to the “nature” call…but luckily i did wake up..else i would have missed my re-long here…

          your time zone seems quite perfect there to take advantage of the U.S market…maybe i should consider moving there!!! πŸ™‚

      1. AlexP

        yeap, indeed, william. it helps me also sharing my thoughts with others, it kind of makes me more rigurous than just doing introvert thinking

        1. William

          Ditto…ditto…and giving is receiving!!! Well said…bravo…:-) πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚
          Now i would let you go…

  10. Herman

    Gary, does it makes sense to conclude that oil and the dollar are not confirming the sharp move downwards in gold? Or, making it likely that it will reverse soon?

  11. Super Mario

    Bought the Russell on the pullback today. Blatant Fed propped up stock market bubble continues unabated. Boy this will end badly.

  12. David

    Boy, talk’n about alot of bullishness here for gold.
    The long stocks, short gold trade has worked for 6+ years but yet folks insist on finding a bottom.

  13. Jay

    Isn’t it funny (and not only in a haha sort of way) that an equities bear market only lasts a year or 2 at the most, in this century , but a metals bear can last 4 years or more!

    1. mike trike

      @Jay
      You must be from the USA because gold has been in a bull market the last couple of years in most other currencies in the world except for the USD.
      Many Canadian miners bottomed in summer 2013 and the big gains have already been made.
      GDX is not a representation of good mining companies.
      GDX contains gold producers with a high market cap which for the most part I wouldn’t touch.
      If you understand the PM mining industry and can pick individual stocks you would have done very well the last 2 years.
      I believe the bottom is now in for gold in USD, but time will tell.
      I own GDX and SLV puts as well as DUST to hedge my junior miner positions which don’t necessarily crash when GDX and gold/silver does.
      We are now having a necessary correction!

      1. ted glum

        “…Many Canadian miners bottomed in summer 2013 and the big gains have already been made.”

        I follow the tsx, its been crushed just like the american market, the majority of miners have tanked since 2013.

        1. mike trike

          The junk miners tanked. Good companies like Detour, Richmont, Lake Shore, Kirkland Lake and many others bottomed in 2013.
          That’s the problem with people looking at the TSX and GDX and HUI. They contain too much junk. The good gold companies, especially those with mines in Canada and other weak currency countries are making nice profits and their share prices bottomed 2 years ago.
          You need to know what you are doing in this market to make money or you are going to make a few peanuts by buying GDX.

  14. David Silver

    Dudes take a look further back. Gold’s taking two steps forward one step back for three fricken months!

    Hello McFly anybody home?

  15. Mad Max

    Gary i respect you a lot but i have different view and wanted to bounce this off of you and others here. If you guys disagree then fine we’ll duke it out in the market very soon i think. I have posted this on Als forum.

    I would like to agree with Doc with exception that we are going to new lows guys. We just completed wave 4 of 5 in ending diagonal and 5 wave is larger then 4 but not bigger then 3. 5 is down. We will hit 1050-980 but could be as low as 890.27 which is 62.8% fib from 1923.54 high in 2011. 50% fib is 1087.56 which IMO will be broken. It was already (1072) Next support on fibs is 890 (62%) . HOWEVER since 1050-1000 is SO STRONG SUPPORT we may never break it. Ideally 980 should be hit intraday. I respect Gary and ironically he’s correct in his interpretation on his website here. We got capped at 1200 again and this rally has been short covering or bear rally but definitely not wave 1 in new bull market.

    Gary’s previous call. I think it’s correct one still
    http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/wp-content/uploads/cotd163.png

    All bear markets end with capitualation sell off. We never had long capitulative wash out in metals that Rick Rule is looking for. What we had in July 2014 is simply wave 3 of ending diagonal which are nasty but that never washed out longs in COT. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT and also what Rick Rule has been looking for. That is coming in Novermber or dec at latest. See dates in chart. This also aligns with what Doc just said.

    Ending diagnoal
    http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GDX-240m-9-11-15.png

    Ending diagnoal
    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/TpmCVZiX-GOLD-ELLIOTTE-WAVE/

    It is my belief we are in pink count with green a,b, c waves as subs. C wave will complete at 5 pink. If Gary S is correct then we’re in black count but I don’t agree with it as we never washed out and also black count has been invalidated at 1200 recently as it needed to go way higher then that, 1300-1400. Also wave 4 couldn’t go substantially higher (extension only) then b green. If this was wave 1 in bull we would but didn’t.

    Also i think we may have stock market crash in Nov but that’s more speculation then anything. It would be ideal if stock market crashes in Nov and everything goes down and dollar rises. Regarding the dollar dollar just broke out of bullish flag. We may go to 110 if Nov stock market crashes. At very least Doc is correct with correction call and Doc will win this bet IMHO.

    Please notice Rick Rule 10/24/15 confirms we never had capitualtive sell off which is gonna happen NOW
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GAuTKiz_gcI

    I would like to know what you guys think especially Doc, A listener and Don Corrlione

    1. mike trike

      No Capitulation? Are you kidding me? Gold miners have suffered their worst collapse in history!
      Silver has been destroyed. Gold had a 50% correction. Not sure what more evidence of capitulation do you need?

      http://thedailygold.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Oct162015BGMIbears.png

      Here is Rick Rule in summer 2013 calling the move capitulation.

      http://bullmarketthinking.com/rick-rule-on-gold-resources-were-now-seeing-capitulation-by-institutional-investors/

      I am tired of these gurus like Rick Rule speaking with forked tongues.

    2. Gabriel Brown

      You forgot this one:
      http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Gold-weekly-9-11-14.png

      Also from EWI:
      “A truncated fifth wave does not move beyond the end of the third. It can usually be verified by noting that the presumed fifth wave contains the necessary five subwaves.

      Truncation gives warning of underlying weakness or strength in the market. In application, a truncated fifth wave will often cut short an expected target. This annoyance is counterbalanced by its clear implications for persistence in the new direction of trend.”

  16. Trond

    The whole rally up from 1105$ started on the premise that the bad Oct 2 employment report would make Fed cancel a December hike. No that premise/hope is annulled, so logically the situation now is no better than on Oct 1st, or even worse as dollar has broken out of its consolidation. Maybe it will drop back into it again, then at least a little relief.
    ‘King Abx’? They have an debt-to equity ratio of 2,7 Not surprised if they went bust..

  17. felix

    Gary, you said many times you are soon expecting the start of the bubble fase in stocks…. What is, to this regard, your final target on the s&p. And what will happen next…. The mother of all crashes???….
    Thanks!

    Andrea.

    1. gary Post author

      There is no way that I know of to predict a bubble target. I just look for the signs. Usually a 100% or greater rise in a year or less, and an index stretching 50-60% or more above the 200 day moving average.

  18. Jorgy

    I don’t think so bro… Anyone long anything other than cash is getting ready to get their face ripped off! ?

  19. ted glum

    Have a look at the 5 year charts for gold and silver. These last couple of months could just be another blip on the way down, another bull trap. Its a possibility, don’t get carried away, with all the bull hype!! Be open to both possibilities

  20. David Silver

    I love how so many non believers are still out there all scarred and brainwashed. All the recipe for a contrarian bull run like that in recent oil and the last month in stocks.

    1. ted glum

      “..I love how so many non believers are still out there all scarred and brainwashed. All the recipe for a contrarian bull run like that in recent oil and the last month in stocks.”

      A market is a market it goes up and down, it doesn’t owe you anything, you can make money in both directions, it isn’t a saving grace if there is a bull market. Waiting for a clear direction is sensible decision, ie if gold gets past $1230 and keeps on moving then, silver above $18, then yes potentially the bear will have changed to a bull. But until then nothing to get excited about. You make it sound like a religion, “believers.”, far to emotional.

  21. AlexP

    I would buy Gold now at 1148 with a stop loss at 1144 considering that USD is too heated and needs some cooling while gold has gotten too beaten to quickly.
    Of course, I would buy if I were a commodity trader, except that I’m not πŸ™‚
    But gold looks ripe for a reversal short term!

  22. AlexP

    Very glad stocks moved into new higher territory yesterday — exhausted the bull to the very limit.
    HONG KONG CLEARLY A TRUE STOCK MARKET LEADER –> it started its daily cycle decline yesterday and has had a follow-through today.

    STAY OUT OF STOCKS AND BUY GOLD –> short-term I am a bear in stocks and a BULL in GOLD

  23. David Silver

    Me likey feedback here.
    The ignorant teds of thr world who will miss the crucial and profitable timeline of a small window and the astute traders like Alex who forsees a short term opportunity.

    Let the good times roll my friends.

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