66 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. gary Post author

    If the fundamentals drag the dollar back down this has the potential to drive gold out of it’s daily cycle low and produce the next leg up I’m looking for over the next 2-3 weeks.

    1. MuffinTop

      Gary – what are the chances the Dollar might look to consolidate and gather strength right underneath the triangle trend line before breaking through to a multi year high..? And btw, that triangular wedge is technically part of a continuation pattern.. is that completely off the table at this point and from your point of view? Please say yes, Lol!

  2. AlexP

    yeap, Gary, as I said in your prior post today, very short term I agree with you: USD cooling, Gold up (and stocks down).
    USD going higher (after cooling) and producing a monthly swing low is in the books though next week and, paradoxically, it would be very bearish for USD (and bullish for gold) medium-term because it would prove we left an YCL on Aug24 while the YCH for the dollar would not be too far away (to be set also next week of in December the latest – as I commented on Sunday).

    I give a higher probability to this scenario because the USD-SPX correlation MUST go negative soon, it’s been positive for too looooong a time while stocks will definitely be in their daily cycle decline next week (or half cycle decline, as you prefer calling it) –> thus USD is most likely to go up next week above 98.44 as the negative correlation will work through.
    But that usd-bullishness next week would be constructive for gold medium-term as I said.

    1. gary Post author

      The YCH on the dollar came way back in March.

      Stocks aren’t likely to enter in a full daily cycle decline right here. The DCL isn’t due until day 35-45 and the stock market is only on day 23. Plus the last cycle ran very short so this one could stretch.

      Stocks are due for a half cycle decline though. Although I should point out that we didn’t have a half cycle decline last Oct. and we may not have one here either. There is risk for stocks to enter a runaway move now that I think QE4 has begun.

      1. AlexP

        the YCH that occurred in March was of the 1st yearly cycle which started out in May 2014 and stretched too long into Aug24, 2015= as long as …15 months.

        The YCH I’m talking about above and have been talking so far in my posts is that of the 2nd yearly cycle, which I expect to prove left-translated –> this is why I am saying that USD blasting next week higher is constructive for gold medium-term….USD would reach its YCH quickly after proving its monthly swing low above 98.44 and thus would have a loooong way down until the end of the 2nd yearly cycle –> the kind of action will thrill gold bugs medium term πŸ˜‰

        1. gary Post author

          Hmm, there is no such thing as a 2014 YCH stretching into a new year. The yearly cycle high came in March unless the dollar rallies far enough to make a new high later this year.

          It’s starting to look like the fundamentals are going to drag the dollar back down before that can happen though.

  3. AlexP

    ….a close of USX below the daily cycle band at some 96.60, Gary, would, on the other hand, validate the scenario that you have suggested here and this daily cycle will prove left-translated.
    Next week is critical, and, regardless of which scenario plays out (either monthly swing low above 98.44 or a close below 96.60) today it has been worth betting on the USD bear

    1. AlexP

      yeap, Trond, indeed USD will be weak beyond the beginning of December the latest regardless of what scenario plays out next week.

  4. Jonathan

    The market was too bearish on oil, the EIA report was not as bad as expected, so oil surged. The market was too bearish on China, the reports from BABA and BIDU (to name a few) were surprisingly good, so both stocks soared. The market was too bearish on biotech, many big names are being revised up and the sector seems to have bottomed out. The market was simply too bearish, this is my 2 cents.

  5. Trond

    Bottom of the uptrend-corridor at $1125, same as Alex’s price target, could be a good timing for an entry, it will probably bounce from there.
    Primo November’s payroll reports are often strong, alternatively they often contain upwards revisions of the September and October’s reports, so maybe a temporary gold breakdown on 6th of November?

    Best chances for a new bullmarket is a gold frenzy starting in China. The Chinese are born gamblers, have historically in multiple of instances hoarded gold and silver, and they love to create ‘tulip-manias’, just look at the Shanghai stock exchange 2005-2007.. With the right conditions in place it may kick off soon.

    1. AlexP

      pls mind, Trond that my target for gold of 1125 is in the former and most probable scenario: USD to go North to confirm BEYOND ANY DOUBT we’ve left an YCL on Aug24.
      Should the latter and less likely scenario play out (USD to close below 96.60 next week), then USD should rollover sooner (and gold up) while leaving yearly cycle count of USD a little bit into shade ….
      That’s why I’m saying it would be great to see USD going up next week beyond 98.44 –> passage from yearly cycle #1 to YC#2 would become clear and the whole picture would be clearer for the medium term

  6. AlexP

    SPX just produced an intraday rising wedge that signals we may get a SWING HIGH of its daily cycle today πŸ™‚

      1. AlexP

        in this case I referred to stocks (SPX=SP500).
        a swing high would be formed if spx goes below 2082.63 – yesterday’s low – and it would be further invalidated if spx makes a higher high afterwards, i.e. above yesterday’s 2092.52

  7. Jonathan

    Both XOM and CVX beat (although mainly through cost cutting), which clarifies not only the Q3 earnings picture for SPX, but also Q4 and 2016. Energy was the sector that was uncertain.

    1. gary Post author

      I doubt it πŸ™‚

      If it gets into the single digits then it’s going to look like it’s going to $5. And if it gets to $5 then it’s going to look like it’s going to $2.50.

      1. Jay

        Okay, well….if I don’t, then I’ll just find another sector to trade that doesn’t trade like a penny stock πŸ™‚

  8. AlexP

    strong fight in USX at the 96.60 level I mentioned before US market open !!!
    both bulls and bears feel the extreme importance of defending/gaining this frontline; so far bulls have withstood the attack πŸ™‚ let’s see what’s next in this open and very important war at this level….

  9. David

    Gary,

    Gold’s weekly Cycle is on week 15. The 10 week moving average is at 1142, won’t it be ONE BIG red flag if gold don’t close above it today? I don’t believe it has ever close below the 10 week moving average this deep into the cycle.

  10. ted

    Once again, it’s pretty simple. If you are shorting stocks or waiting for a correction, you should have your head examined. This bull is leaving the station. And all I hear from everyone, we should be topping soon. The only thing that is topping is your trading accounts.

  11. ted

    I have never been MORE bullish in my life. And I am 57 years old, and have been trading stocks for 30 years. I am so bullish, I have 90% of my capital in the market (much of it in ultra bullish ETF’s).

    1. AlexP

      this daily cycle bull is very resilient which is excellent, the underling multi-year cycle bull is an extremely strong one, which gives me confidence to go 90% into equity at the end of next week.
      I expect a correction of SPX to bottom somewhere btw 2010-2040 next week.
      A DCL may quite well be drawn at even only 2040 next Friday, i.e. only a fib24% retracement.

  12. David Silver

    Ted I agree with you here just look at EXPE toda
    NFLX is trending higher.
    CVX is about to breakout.
    XOM is now above both 50 and 200ma and amidst of a technical breakout!

    My beloved EGO disappointed with earnings @ open for a wash (gambled).
    Will concentrate solely on my bread winner crude hold).

    1. AlexP

      …and, David, also take a look please at the leader of all leaders in this market now: FACEBOOK πŸ™‚
      usually great leaders lead the broad market, that’s what I’ve learned … πŸ™‚

      1. AlexP

        and just to render things nicer: an even LARGER RISING WEDGE IS BEING DRAWN ON SPX’s INTRADAY AS I WRITE THIS πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

        1. AlexP

          and now a very powerful bearish harmonic development that crosses yesterday’s and today’s minute-by-minute chart.
          The pivot of this development is 2085 –> SPX will retreat at around this level and a major battle will be given there before the price pierces lower

  13. AlexP

    USD bulls have convincingly won the battle at the 96.6 frontline I told about above before US markets open πŸ™‚ ..at least for today –> this increases the probability that the former scenario will play out next week so that we can have a monthly swing low above 98.44

    Now, as I told Davis above, a major battle is to unfold btw bulls and bears on the stocks’ arena as SPX nears the pivot of 2085.20.
    Just as I had given the chance for the USD bulls to win the battle earlier today, now I give it to SPX bears to win this brunt πŸ™‚ SPX is 2091 now. Let’s watch the showdown, folks!

    1. AlexP

      I don’t know, Red. All I see, listen to and follow is price action: the whispers of Her Majesty, Lady Market πŸ™‚

      FACEBOOK IS RUSHING SOUTHWARDS AS IF RUN BY A FLEET OF PIRATES.
      Apple is joining in the great leaders’ flight.
      Great leaders are the first to rats-like run off and on the boat.

    1. AlexP

      meaning ?!

      PS: SPX has just reach its pivot, the frontline, of 2085.2. The bull & bears battle has started !
      Watch it, it’s fun

        1. AlexP

          sorry, Victor, I don’t know what this stock/etf is πŸ™

          SPX bulls have given the battle quickly to bears, now it is clear: THE DAILY CYCLE DECLINE IN STOCKS HAS STARTED!
          Today, day 23, has set the DCH at 2094.32.
          DCL on Friday somewhere btw 2010-2040 on fib24-38 retracement.

          1. bill

            Remember Alex we have a Jobs report next week, market will be up and down till Friday…Sometimes its best to watch and preserve capital for better days…

  14. William

    If the swing high in USD happen next week as per Alex, then, expect gold to tango with it higher given that USD is faking out…

  15. AlexP

    you’re welcome, Victor! Having a trading plan, a strategy with unbreakable entry, position sizing and risk management rules is a tedious job, a routine and it gives me pleasure to share my inputs/ideas with you. i’m sorry again for your loss on RUBI πŸ™ i bailed out like a rat at the open 3 days ago at the first signal given gently to my by Lady Market (thank you again, My Lady!) in the pre-open –> the bid rose to 16.85 and all of a sudden 1 minute before opening I saw it tumble to 16.00 or so and I sold just as the market open –> non-GAAP EPS had been a staggering +300% in excess of the prior y-o-y eps and way many times above analysts’expectations buuut….if Lady Market did not confirm fundamentals, I dumped RUBI like a rag. MARKET RULES! PRICE ACTION IS THE BEST DATA THAT WE, TRADERS, HAVE! Nothing is more valuable than price action
    Have a great weekend yourself, Victor! and sorry again

  16. AlexP

    Good night to you too, WIlliam, Ted, David Silver, Red, Hong and Bill (yes, it’s evening in Bucharest, Romania).
    My great respect to Gary, he was the first to introduce me into cycles analysis several years ago via this blog! I thank you once again, man! Great weekend to you too!

    Through this weekend I’ll reshuffle my data to see what the best candidates may be to buy at the end of next week on DCL of stocks, another short DC in stocks we’re gonna have, some 28-day long (or HCL, as my teacher Gary prefers) πŸ™‚

    1. David Silver

      Have a well rested weekend my friend and thanks for all you do here as well in which you should charge us!

  17. JoshuaF

    I am not a subscriber because I do my own thing. But I do read this blog from time to time, and this is what I have to say about the EMini where I believe the manipulation takes place. I know Gary is awake to the manipulation and does not recommend shorting!
    In a 2 minute period today, 30th October 2015, 14.59 and 15.00 CST about 175,000 contracts were traded. Why? Because the market was about to collapse into an apocalyptic crash. I believe there are machines (“Bots”) that react this way, and there is no one who can sense this type of thing before it happens. Only a machine can! To put this into perspective, really big volume on a One Minute Chart for a Dec EMini is about 15,000/minute. Most of the time this market trades at under 4000 trades/ minute and quite often under 1000. The market is trading at price 2082 around 14.47/8 CST and starts falling steadily minute by minute. Around about Price 2075 there must have been huge selling because that was 14.59 CST, but who was buying to take out those sellers??!! 175,000 contracts in a 2 minute period ??!!! The market goes to “only 2070” ??!!
    I am sure the powers that be would not like us to see volume. But we can and it is a dead give-away. No doubt most traders are clueless. How many watch this as it happens?
    If you have a money printing machine as does the FED, how far can you go? Those who own the Fed…can I suggest a tribe with a 3 letter word?… can decide when to stop supporting it. You can be sure THEY will be ready with their short positions when that time comes. (Just like 911 go short aircraft stock!) For some reason that time is not now!
    There may be a way to trade this. Wait for the big volume to subside back to normal. The market can drop a little, but then appears to gain confidence in the upward direction. When volume drops below 5000, then buy. Make sure you have a stop loss that is bullet proof ! Maybe best is KEEP OUT altogether !
    Now Gold and Gold Stocks. Same thing. They can naked short and get away with it. Who are the regulators? Gary Gensler, (has he retired to a job with GS, I don’t give a shit??!) Will he do anything?!! No way! Or some he some Shapiro or other? No way! Get real. We don’t live in a democracy, we live in a JEWocracy. When a Jew’s lips move he is lying and when you see a Rabbi there is a crime in progress.
    If you read the Protocols of the Fathers of Zion then you know gold is very important and they want to get all the gold in the world. Watch what they do. How do you get it but manipulate the price so low that it falls into their hands. How low is that? I don’t know, unfortunately. How do you out-smart a money printing machine? There are some natural laws that can only be overcome with difficulty, but they know those laws and 50% retracements are one of them. If you own a money printing machine you can temporarily overcome them. But ultimately Babylon will fall and I hope it is soon. Read Revelation Ch 17 onwards, and figure out who you are and where you came from. If you are racially mixed you are stuffed.

      1. David Silver

        Wow! Ironically I’m actually Scottish, Swedish and English on my dad’side and Japanese on my mom’s!

      1. David Silver

        Oh hello and forgot Danish.

        Well if you seen our culturally melting pot of girls here in Hawaii you’ll think otherwise.

  18. David Silver

    What a terrible week in gold think Mr. Savage nailed it via $1133 aka 61.8 FIB pivot point. Had the cash to capitalize but tried prematurely with the hero call on Wed/Thurs. Currently no position.

    Me sticking with the energy i.e. crude hold route, all daily candles look bullish Friday for continued uptrend next week. My proven bread winner time and time again. Loaded the boat this past Tuesday and last week Wed and Fri when no one wanted them (thanks to Mr. Savage aka the undercit theory in play). Best move thus far in my career.

    US markets taking a breather I presume by way of her candles. No position.

  19. AlexP

    1) STOCKS:
    Very strong buying on weakness in stocks – this underscores that next week is the time to start buying.
    On the other hand, market is overextended and there are bearish signals everywhere.
    Institutions will employ this perception alongside some volatility-provoking events such as a multitude of earnings reports and Employment Situation in order to re-ignite the sensation into retailers: “wow, this was just a bear market rally, I told you so! let’s short it.”

    Institutions will then proceed to accumulate into that confusion, fear, almost Brownian movement of retailers as they, the institutions will produce shakeouts.
    I will buy alongside them.

    2) USD (and gold & metals by inverse consequence):
    Looking forward to that monthly swing low above 98.44.
    It may well happen that once the swing is drawn, USD to move lower on Friday, after Employment Situation. If so, the weekly chart of USD on next Saturday should look print a wick that would look like a shakeout above the downward weekly trendline.

    make no mistake, USD going higher above 98.44 (even if that may move gold at some 1125 as I told Paul) will be an extremely bearish data for USD, just as gold’s movement above 1180 was very bearish several days ago (and I had called that) and as I had said here that SPX’ movement to new high ground would exhaust stocks and move them lower into daily cycle decline.
    GOLD BUGS SIMPLY NEED THE PAIN OF USD ABOVE 98.44 FOR MEDIUM and LONG TERM GAINS. Patience is key!

  20. Hong Bang

    Thanks Gary & Alex,

    I just read the COT report for Gold and Silver at http://www.biiwii.com, it is extremely bearish. The COT was of wesnesday’s data, so it may take in to account some recent downmove of Gold and Silver. But the odd for next week is more weekness.

    Gold may even shake below 1097 like USD shake below intermediate low making everybody thinking USD will make new low and then, as we all see, USD take revenge making higher high.

    If gold shake below 1097, every body will think it will go lower, that may produce the rally we need.

    Interesting time !

  21. Paul

    Yes with dollar pushing up over the 98.44 and cot reports bearish plus exhausted markets being shaken out then next week could produce the low in gold that we need to start the end of year rally over 1250 I hope. Nugt already under 35 ..what a buy at about 25…Or am I dreaming Alex ?

    1. AlexP

      I don’t now anything about nugt/gdx since I do not have any interest in miners, Paul.

      Now I think, and I had expected that to happen and mentioned it, people are swinging their emotions to the other extreme because they’ve been disappointed. From a human perspective it’s normal but it’s not market-wise. Coolness and objectivity should keep the perspective clear.

      MORE THAN ONE WEEK AGO, IMMEDIATELY AFTER ECB’S STATEMENT, WHEN USD MOVED HIGHER I TURNED BULLISH USD AND BEARISH METALS, I SAID IT HERE AND I GOT MOCKED !
      I even told people around here that it is a mania and fetishism to STILL BE LONG METALS WHILE USD WAS IN AN UPTREND especially that the market offers other reward-risk-wise opportunities.
      People still went long metals and got burned this week.

      With the US economy going sluggish, it is no way that this USD bull can last.
      I do hope it will move above 98.44 and produce an YCH quickly, maybe as early as next Friday.
      If the employment situation in US is again below 200k people, then the beginning of the yearly cycle decline in USD is almost assured.
      People are now too skittish after the FACT while they should have been out of long-metal positions right before ECB’s meeting.
      So, keep calm, objective, patient, and in touch with Lady Market’s whispers!
      This attitude leaves no room to jerk-knee swings in emotions from one extreme to the other.

      1. Johan

        Hi Alex,

        how can you be so sure the USD bull market can’t continue much further?

        After all if you look historically when the USD bull starts it usually continues.

        Also technically to me it looks like we are just breaking out of both the long-term multiyear bear trend, + we are breaking out of the multi-month bull flag.

        Fundamentally we have the European economies going down and loads of Fed bond holdings maturing next year which is dollar bullish. In addition the geopolitical situation of the world which is clearly dollar bullish.

        1. AlexP

          Hi, Johan. My opinion and answer to your question is not something new πŸ™‚ : I simply believe that from a relative basis US economy is going to show more weakness –> employment situations are key:
          – if on Friday the report comes in with a large figure then yes, we will have a more extended bull in USD and it will take longer till we see the YCH, maybe one more month into December’s Emppl.Sit.
          – if the other, then …as said before: down with USD.
          That’s just my opinion, Johan πŸ™‚ I might be wrong, after all, this whole game of trading is playing with probabilities, noboday knows nothing for sure.

  22. Mark

    Gary,
    I think you are the last gold bull standing πŸ™‚
    Other famous gold analysts who used to be bullish until the last COT report have changed their minds and are now bearish (Jordan Ray Byrne,Bob Moriarty of 321gold etc….)
    I’m bearish as well,but I REALLY hope you’re right and that a new bull cycle for PM has begun.

    1. Mark

      He is long term,but he was convinced that we were ALREADY in a “stealth” PM bull market (as Gary is).
      Now he thinks we have to wait and have a confirmation.

  23. Paul

    Hi Alex

    Many thanks for your clarity and may I dare say diplomacy. When I read some of your answers Im beginning to wonder if you were ever in Politics…….

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