22 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY

  1. David

    Thanks, Gary for your excellent analysis. Today Gold ETF had huge volume Gold inflow about 8 ton. The ” bull market” means stock market, right?

  2. Jorgy

    I guess that means, “we all are goldbugs now…” I can’t wait for the herd to attempt to squeeze their way into the tiny little gold, silver and mining company complex. It’ll be like trying to squeeze all the water behind Hoover Dam into a garden hose!
    ?
    ?
    ?

  3. Hong Bang

    Hi,

    If Gold is in day 08, USD is in day 18. So a correction is near before jumping.

    Gary & Alex, please share with us your view about current USD cycle.

    Thanks

    1. AlexP

      Morning, Hong!
      Gary makes an excellent analyst; he saw before me that this DC of USD would extend into the end of this month.
      My original opinion was swayed by yesterday’s convincing break of the 50Wma upon the Beige Book.
      As I commented yesterday upon seeing this 50wma break-down on major fundamental news such as the Beige Book, that move in USD turned stocks upwards [and also gold as I saw – I am not very much interested in it but in stocks].

      So, with the damage produced by that 50wma break plus the bonus of a proven failed IC, this DC will extend further, just as Gary had already commented and argued.

  4. Jay

    I think he means the bull market in Kudlow’s so-called “King Dollar” is over. ๐Ÿ™‚

    I covered more DUST shorts today. I will cover the rest at around $11, or add more if we were to see DUST make a nutty move into the 20s again.

    I imagine that a lot of folks around here still have quite a long way to go before they claw their way back to even….glad I learned how to hedge and to stop paying attention to other people’s predictions (except maybe as a sentiment fade) ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Lily

      Hi, Jay,

      I am the one who bought miner ETFs in 2012/2013 and have been caught big time. Is it possible that you can share a little bit more on how to hedge? The only thing I did is to sell covered calls on my holdings. Is it risky to use leveraged product for hedging? I would really appreciate your insight.

      Thanks!

      1. Jay

        I’d say the time to hedge is when you first put on the trade, not after the trade already fell apart. Not a big fan of GDX because it doesn’t pay much, if any, dividend. If buying an ETF, I would buy expensive puts as protection, rather than cheap puts or inverses. I won’t go into any more detail than that.

        When Gary’s trading came totally unglued in 2013, I was long GDX and the like, but I was also hedged with expensive puts. Admittedly, I was not hedged enough (not enough puts relative to the amount of shares I owned) but the hedges did help curtail the losses somewhat.

        One of the reasons I still booked a winning year in 2013 is I found other vehicles to trade that worked much better in the market environment at the time, compared to GDX, rather than trying to make my money back by continuing to hold GDX, or trying to trade in and out of GDX during a vicious metals bear market.

        It would have been better off being more more fully hedged with expensive GDX puts in 2013, so that my losses in GDX in 2013 would much have been more minimal. I’m just glad I was hedged at all, and that I got out rather than continuing to hold and pray, etc.

      2. MuffinTop

        I can’t say that I completely agree with Jay on this one and here’s why:
        Why bother buying in the first place if you are going to systematically hedge that position with another investment vehicle? It makes no sense at all. In fact, you probably shouldn’t be buying whatever it is that you’re buying in the first place.

        Hedging is great if you’re worried about currency fluctuations and/or if you are a ‘hedge fund’ manager with multimillions under your care, but for small time people like the rest of us; you don’t need it. That being said, if you want to avoid a large loss then what you do need is a solid investment strategy – short and/or long-term.

        Part of that solid investment strategy should include an incredible risk to reward ratio, position sizing, an exact entry and exit strategy, and last but not least (and this is the most important one of them all) a ‘stop loss’ of no more than 5 to 10% in case the trade goes against you.. Possibly more if you’re trading long term. A ‘Trailing Stop Loss’ is another good one to lock in your profits once you’re off to the races btw…

        Once you have that in place, you’ll need all the evidence you can find to justify your choice and if you can buy at ‘support’ then that only increases the odds of a good trade.

        Anywho.. I realize this is unsolicited advice, so take it or leave it, but I just felt compelled cuz I ain’t buyin’ into the whole ‘hedging’ your position to save your skin. Hope this helps babes ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. Lily

          Hi, Jay & MuffinTop,

          Thanks for sharing!

          I have been using trailing stop loss for a while after the lesson from the losses of GDX and GDXJ. I also sold several Gold 1405-1415 future call options yesterday in case of a pullback in miners.

  5. MuffinTop

    Trolls update: Don’t forget to short cuz this is just a ‘bear market’ rally – mad money comin right up!
    ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Jay

      I still think this ends in a lot more tears for those that really believe this to be the start of a new Metals Bull….but, even if this really is a Metals Bull, I’m happy with the profits I made from my DUST shorts, and will find better trades than this crazy sector. ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. David Silver

        Appreciate the head’s up William, thank you.
        I’m basing my long position on three segments. Daily breakout formation, US Indices bullish play which will influence Shanghai’s direction and last and most important the ING approving China’s reserve currency which will create a flood a one trillion infusion into their markets.
        Technically a bounce off her bullish 50DNA is inevitable hence my possible third bullet tomorrow on weakness.

        1. William

          The reserve status on China is surely to come,but,not so soon since the decision for the inclusion has been delayed to the end of next year.

          My view is positive on China in 6- 12-month timeframe, but, not in coming days.

          Anyway, just my 2 cents…

          1. David Silver

            Always respect your insight William.

            Word on the street is in November hence the market’s latest positive action/swing low confirmation daily and weekly.

            If US market’s bullish then the world will follow suit. Again my contrarian philosophy will upset the masses soon

  6. James

    The dollar’s cycle did not fail. This was an extended daily cycle that appears to have now found a bottom. What most are calling a daily cycle low was the half cycle low in this cycle and now it’s moving higher. The peak of this cycle touched the upper bollinger band and now crashed the lower bollinger band and RSI became very oversold. This is more indicative of a daily cycle low.

    1. Tushar

      So now what shall we look for in terms of moving higher for the $usd and target price etc? Thank you!

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