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Are there any Elliott Wave enthusiasts out there??
Hereβs an optimistic interpretation of gold which is probably dead wrong. Wave 1 completed on August 24. Since then we have witnessed an irregular a-b-c wave 2 correction in which we are currently in wave c down to complete 2. A very powerful (extended) wave 3 up usually follows an irregular 2 as opposed to a simple zig-zag wave 2). Howβs that for optimism?
Actually, my guess is we break the previous lows just to put the fear of God in everyone. However, I do respect Garyβs analysis greatly, ergo the wave 2 interpretation.
PPT PPT PPT!
Fuckers! I wish I had my own printing press π
Not sure, I would have put it, quite that way.
Bud
I know Bud.. but a little cheekiness is warranted during these trying times, so smile for crying out loud — do it now! Or else π
More sympathetic I could not be.
No way to tell but I supposed yesterday’s move in miners could have exacerbated by margin call or triggered margin call, one way or the other…peace!
The bigger the BUBBLE the bigger the BURST! π
Yep but we first need the bubble. And by bubble I mean stocks need to rally 100% or more in 8 months or less and stretch at least 50-60% above the 200 DMA.
Ain’t gonna happen. THIS is already a bubble. Bonds and Real Estate as well. Bubbles waiting to find their pins.
Would you care to take profit?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chinas-awakening-bull-william-yii?published=t
Take a l@@k at a 20 year chart of AMZN and you can see a hockey stick parabola. A lot of meat is on that short-side AMZN bone! Can’t wait to for that nut to get busted open by the bears! ?
Indeed, NASDAQ Comp. is kissing the underside of its weekly support uptrend line from the trough in 2014…interesting night later!
Good place to short with a tight cut-loss level of course!
Market will never stop going higher, because the government simply can;t afford to let it stop going higher. Too much leverage in the system!
If you want to make money, just keep watching this video until it sinks in. This made me a lot of money. π
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4
Muffin,
That’s not cheeky — just foul-mouthed, rude, obnoxious and vulgar.
Do you interact with your mother using such language?
Oh leave my mother out of this you daffodil π
A little vulgar language from this hot little Muffin is pretty harmless and should be the least of your worries. There are bigger problems in the world — Focus on that and I’ll handle the sarcasm!
I got a laugh today just because of you. Good luck to yeah !!!!!!!!! Cheeky Muffin
Zkotpen, muffin doesn’t talk to him mum this way. Qn is, are you his mother? Lol
alrite, people…get back to charts or else. Period.
Agreed William.
Let’s all put our heads together and figure out why the Bullion Banks are so mean to us.
????
Muffin,
The problem is, your head is useless. I haven’t read a single thought out comment — just hyperbole, rant, and rudeness, which I tend to ignore.
Vulgarity is over the top. If you weren’t a fandrodge, Gary would have kicked you off the side.
Fandrodge = Fanboy – boy + androgenous
Androgynous — spelt with a ‘y’ not an ‘e’ but I could be wrong since my head is a bit.. useless, as you say π
William
Did you go long GDX before yesterday’s close?
I thought about it — but probabilities still not high enough, so I chose to wait.
Nope, since I was stopped out a few days’ ago…
They can print all they want. Oil and Gold been in a bear market for years… How is this going to change things??
William,
Actually, taking a fresh look at the GDX chart this morning, it looks like there’s another wave down in the works, before a reversal. Gold may also be lining up similarly.
Very different from last month’s NFP. Last month, I went long GDX before Thursday’s close, as stated a couple of days ago (with chart showing why). Yesterday, by contrast, the chart looked ambiguous — no need to put money at risk!
Guess what, NewCrest Mining just put in a hammer on its daily chart today! So, it may be signalling something positive for other miner majors later…
Gary, june 2006 , feb start increase rate , but the gold price is on up untill 2011. whyοΌ
David, bcos dollar continued to plunge.
Wow, dollar huge rally on 270k NFP. Gold crashing. New lows coming.
so good practicing the ART OF PATIENCE!
pls be reminded: I am in cash 100% since calling SPX of 2077 on Friday, Oct23, as unsustainable.
On Sunday Oct 25 and on Monday next day I was calling a climb of gold above 1081 and a reversal down to 1125. It seems I was too optimistic with my pessimism that I got mocked at on this board π
…typo mistk –> 1181
Yes Alex
π Hi, Hong!
I tried in the post yesterday to line up the several obvious seasonal reasons why the report for October month would be robust:
“Tomorrowβs payroll report could possibly be strong since in October activities are in full swing after the vacation, it is neither too warm nor too cold for outdoor construction work, the agriculture harvesting is peaking etc.
However in November frost and snow prevents much outdoor activities including mining in adverse areas etc, the harvest is over + a strong dollar is reducing the US competitiveness, therefore the beginning of December report might be very weak, providing the Fed with a no-hike excuse.
So βwave Cβ (down) could start tomorrow morning..”
It is not good enough strategy to ‘hope’ it will be weak, unfortunately.
Just covered all my GC short.
Long gold at 1089.
I’ve been warning everyone since mid-October to get out of the gold miners. The FOMC will raise % rates in December. The easiest trade has been long the USD short the Euro/Yen and the miners and that’s not going to change for a while. Sorry for those on the wrong side of the trade. :,-(
NFP wayyyyy better than expected!!!!!
1) USX STATUS:
USD cycles are crystal clear now:
Yearly cycle #1 = 15months = May2014 — Aug24, 2015
YC#2 = Aug25, 2015 — present
On the other hand, USX in on day 16 of its daily cycle so that it should top soon, most likely on Monday, day 17 with DCL most likely on Thursday day 20 or on Friday day 21 (GDP reports in EU).
Due to this jobs report and to the right-translation of the current DC, next DC will produce a higher high !!! SO WATCH OUT GOLD BUGS! STAY OUT OF THE METALS MARKET! DO NOT MAKE THE SECOND MISTAKE AGAIN OF CALLING ME OUT-OF-THE-WAY OR THE LIKE! (or do it at the peril of your account’s safety π )
2) STOCKS –> as anticipated before to continue their DC decline into next week to around 2040.
Good luck! ….and remember stay out of the metals as long as USX is in search for its YCH π
Looks like the bear market in gold continues.
Monthly and weekly charts have been saying that for a long time. And the last COT report was a doozy. But it’s those darn 5 minute charts and daily charts that always trip you up.
Only trips you up if you are selling hope.
AlexP, good call.
So, if one wants to buy USD, better wait a little longer for the DCL?
exactly, Herman! Now it is too stretched. On the other hand, I think it will go a little bit higher on Monday to put its DCH on day17 but even so…I think it is too risk too place the long right now. I mean too risky from a reward/risk ratio perspective
…it is most likely that Asian markets or European markets early in their Monday trading will place the DCH in USX
Then a retreat in USD sometime later next week?
exactly, Janin. Bottom most likely on EU gdp reports on Friday, Nov13
That become abit sooo easy trade Alex, i suspect market do not produce easy trade this time.
When everyone so bearish now for the metal. Hmnn… I wait the SWING
Thanks
Hong, gold will shine indeed next week, and IT WILL SHINE BIG AND BRIGHT as USX will search for its DCL but ….. it will be a very tight long-gold trade and especially AGAINST ITS INTERMEDIATE DECLINE TREND!
Gold will shine just to put its DCH into another left-translated DC. it is feasible but extremely, extremely risky and not wise!
A wise trade, if you really wanna trade gold, would be to wait for its DCH next week and then to put a short π
TSI OF GOLD IS SURE TO DIVERGE BULLISHLY –> I.E. TO PRODUCE A LOWER LOW AS IT WILL MOVE INTO ITS ICL.
THERE IS THE REAL TRADE IN GOLD THAT MAKES SENSE ON A REWARD-RISK BASIS, NOT LONG
TSI = TRUE STRENGTH INDEX
Super strong jobs report. Why does the fed need to do another QE. All a hog wash from investment/newsletter advisors.
Dave, just sooo good to be 100% cash in … USD π uauu!
Fed will raise rates next month if not sooner. Bear market in metals and miners will resume, stock bull market will resume.
Nothing changes.
Yup been in cash for two weeks now, not trading this BS….the swings will make you poor.
who said that one cannot get a great return by simply staying 100% in CASH ?!!!
I know I am. A return of 0% in USD cash is so damn great!
Hi Alex,
good to see your trust in good ol’ USD is back!!
Cheers!:)
Hello, my dear and old friend here, Johan!
I am a USD bull since Draghi’s dovish comments on OCT22.
I’ve actually pleased to see USX going higher because that way the passage btw YC#1 and YC#2 on AUG24 became clearer.
On the other hand, Johan, you should mind that USX is not stronger for the reasons you have been expecting (generalized weakness in global economy, particularly in EU, while USD becomes the sole safe-heaven in a world devoured by deflation) !!!
This should be the 1st food for thought for you (after all an asset can go in one of two directions only: up or down, there are not so many options wherefrom to pick one π ).
The 2nd food for thought for you should be (I apologize if I seem arrogant but that is not my intention) if it is really worthwhile running exposed trades, such as the long USD, through so many reports and data that can switch your trading equity violently.
Most likely you are not employing stop loss orders ’cause you would have been stopped out by now π
That’s the 3rd food for thought. You should mind them if you still want be with your capital in the LOONG RUN
Hi Alex,
relating to food for thought 1 I know the US is ahead of Europe business cycle wise and there are many many more fundamental reasons to be long USD vs EUR (and others). As you say you make a bet and you stick with it, unless something important changes of course. Luckily the FX cycles are really long.
Relating to the 2nd food for thought technically the USD always looked great, I bought it at the low of the bull flag since March and had exited if I saw it break decisively below the flag. So really great risk/reward in my view and not a way to loose capital in the long run.
German Dax, Nikkei are on fire. So, its 1999 all over again? Just stay in stocks, stay away from commodities. And play golf like what Ted says. If you look at KRE, it’s bullish like heaven. So bank stocks gonna rally. When banks rally SPX too. So KISS. Seat on your stocks hands, and wash your dirty commodities hands .
If we apply the cycle count like Gary teach us, gold should rally to break the decline trend line near 1168 -1170. With gold now at 1188, gold have to rally 80 plus USD to touch this trenline. Hmnn… I do not know if it could.
Some one have an example the cycle did not break trendline?
Thanks
now this equation applies: Long-gold = fools’ gold —> it shines only from the mountain base where the wanna-be miner found that piece of pyrite (actual fools’ gold) to the first gold shop where the specialist shouts: “fools’ gold”
the same will be with gold’s run-up to its DCH next week as USX will meet its DCL just before seeing gold tumbling further into its intermediate decline π π
Looks like I was flat out wrong about the bear being over.
Looks like another attempt at reaching the 1030-50 level is back on the table.
The question is do we just go stright there or do we get a bounce out of a daily cycle low off the 1070 level first and then drop to support at 1050ish?
For those that followed my advice to be patient, I’m going to suggest a little more patience and lets see if gold can make it down to 1050ish during this drop before trying to go long.
Its ok Gary. You recommended buying gold at low levels. If people traded out some at higher levels, there shouldn’t be much harm done. But with your great long equities call, people would have made a lot.
Now that the gold issue as been settled, my first price target for gold is the 2008 low, around $750.
Bye y’all.
And remember Gary my advice. Just. Forget. About. Gold.
Move on.
Yes gregor so easy ….hmnn…
Alex,
another thing, you said wait for the report to place your trade. So would you want to buy usd for instance here then? I mean there is no way to get reasonable risk/reward after reports the way I see it. You see what I mean? You have to place your bets before important reports in my view. And again commonly the charts predict the reports, or at least the interpretation of reports.