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the power do not want “deflation”, but can they do it?
The ‘powers that be’ are manipulating the stock market, the currencies and gold. Is there anything left that isn’t being manipulated?
So the Fed’s idea is that the masses will spend more if they see their portfolios are higher?…..I thought most of the masses got shaken out in 2008 and won’t get back in until the mania/bubble phase?
I’m sure most people have 401K’s
That’s supposed to be for their Retirement, not Holiday Shopping 🙂
There is an esoteric trendline from the seventies that marks an extreme resistance at 2130ish.
Selling the Russell 2000 ETF for a minimal loss.
Buying JBLU here on a precursor breakout.
The PPT will throw you theoretical guys another curveball and the shorts will add the fuel.
There’s a guy on Twitter (Bob Brinker’s son) who says he doesn’t believe in the PPT. Hard to believe that anyone would not believe in the PPT. 🙂
I don’t believe in the PPT. It seems anytime the shorts don’t get their way, they get all conspiracy about it.
Stocks are going up because these companies are making money. Pretty simple.
If NOV monthly close is below Oct monthly low then it “might be” start of the next bear market. And if DEC monthly close is below NOV monthly close then probability is very high…
Ya think??? I don’t. She won’t even close below her September. No rate hike means higher markets.
I’m a gambling man and think my money’s best now in stocks.
Gold is bearish and crude is stuck in no man’s land at the moment.
what do you think of nat gas David? I’m waiting for 2.12, not sure now… thanks
with new low for gold and new high for usd now both should produce their swings tomorrow in the 1st day of the cycles of both assets.
gold’s time to shine for 2 or more days is here
so thankful for your comments Alex…, God bless you.
Temp dead cat bounce Alex to ???
My toughts are again contrarian:
Everyone thinks gold and stocks are going down.
Everyone thnks the USD will top.
Opposite usually happens.
Gold is going up.
Everyone, who? Anecdotally, or just because Gary said that.
Most talking heads I follow professionally as well as the traders in the trenches.
The actual sentiment levels are very bearish on gold and very bullish on the dollar.
NOTHING CAN STOP DOLLAR NOW..
Gary, you didn’t let go my thanks for Alex, I understand that…, but what wrong if I asked David abt nat gas?
Tell pls if you blocked me.
“The consensus call today is that gold is headed below $1000 and then pile in because its going to $5000 or more. My guess is that all those who pile in below $1000 are going to be bailing out at $500. The current gold bearishness isn’t really bearishness. Investors can’t wait to buy gold and think it will be easy money.”
That is so true. Gold is a waste of time, and the bull is over in it.
Exactly. Which is why I am still not convinced at all we ever see gold going below the 1030-40 area. Every man and it is every man and his dog is waiting for sub $1000 gold even people who got in last week by buying a 1 gramme bar for the first time ever. So it either goes dramatically lower as you say or never gets there at all.
Damn there goes crude crashing afterhours. Came this close to shorting it but was waiting for a tag to $45 intraday
USD has a stranglehold on metals and crude now.
Dxy closed the day with a shooting star…
If you have shorted equities, take note that major indices are at or near their respectively horizontal supports again (though the charts look bearish). So, if you have shorted equities since last week, i would think you wanna tighten your stop loss levels…just in case!
I suppose PPT is watching these levels like a hawk…
Fantastic observations and illustrations my friend which have been echoed too by prominent chartists!
First and foremost I am a chartist but the secret sauce is the contrarian darkhorse indicator of psychological elements .
Sometimes just being a realist pays handsome dividends over and over
Every one since the last 8 weeks is looking for a crash, but it still is not coming. Plus I doubt listening to the bears is going to help anyone, why? simple….
This video here, shows that we are now back in a FULL on bull market. => https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRzuyt9KMoY
So next year, more up is coming, could be lots more up. Time will tell.
I have to agree. To me August 24 aka flash crash was a much needed capitulation phase and a rebirth to perhaps a newborn bull here going forward into Mr. Savage’s bubble phase theory.
Better late than never is my motto.
There is now one possibility nobody talking about about Gold.
If Gold just bottomed above 1072 & go straight Higher from here…hmnn… that may caught most of investors speculators off-guard.
We are now in day 27 for the current daily cycle in gold, if SWING and then go straight UP pass 1191…hmnn… that is the scenario nobody talking about.
I keep the open mind.
I was talking about it and took leverage long positions in NUGT yesterday as posted in real-time. The narrow range day in gold and silver today created an easier swing low tomorrow. No telling what happens, but if gold has a short IC and it rockets out of its ICL then we have enough time to repair the monthly chart (ie close above $1200). Nobody, and I mean nobody is positioned for a monster rip like that now that expectations are for the USD breaking out to 120 and gold targeting $850. I’m either going to get my face ripped off as my stop gets triggered or I’m going to be riding a ? to da moon! ?
Well said, i’m on your board. Wait at least for the SWING.
This is my implicit assumption when i wrote this…
“As the masses are mostly expecting scenario 1 to happen soon, i would not be surprised if it does not happen at all and there is no lower low vis-à-vis July/August’s low.”
you speak french “vis-à-vis” William.
Merci pour votre boulot Monsieur William :o) :o)
haha…i can’t speak french, but, a little bit of Japanese…どういたしまして…
On the same page as you W. as a scenario. In fact I will be some what disappointed if it doesn’t happen now. Are the bullion banks and other big players going to benefit from the talking head sub $1000 level now with it being so expected? We could get some choppy sideways here and IF a rate hike occurs maybe a spike lower to the 1030 tag?
Al, this study i mentioned earlier is an interesting one…have a read if you haven’t done so…
Thanks William, interesting insight and data.
Vis à vis, like so many cool French words and phrases that have that je ne sais quoi about them (actually, si, j’en sais quoi), is incorporated into the English language 🙂
One possible scenario for the current corrective wave in gold/GDX is triangle… followed by another strong wave down, either after the triangle completes OR after the bounce that NUGT’eers are looking for. I concur with AlexP, since the weekend or Monday: The consolidation in GDX/gold is not tradeable — probabilities are too low.
Faits accomplis :
1) swing high for USX –> day 1 in new DC
2) swing low for gold –> day 1, and yes, David Silver, the dead cat bounce is here
Also, stocks are o large selling on strength –> the positive correlation USX-stocks will bring stocks down big today and tomorrow as USX finbds its DCL.
So, these 2 days:
– USX and SPX down
– gold up
Me thinks the opposite for all three respectively.
Alex, gold do not have SWING yet.
correct, Hong! my mistake
Interesting reply from yesterday. RE gold and inflation, I just use that as a framework for the larger analysis, and as my answer to the question of the degree of top that gold formed in 2011, and the degree of the subsequent correction currently in play. People don’t seem to realize that, percentage-wise, the 1970’s gold bull was much more powerful than that of the 2000’s.
As for the probabilities discussion, even though it’s utterly relevant to trading on any time frame, from minutes to decades, I almost think it’s unwelcome here. After all, a lot of people don’t like math, and if you broke math down to its different components less complicated than calculus, I reckon the two most hated math areas are geometry and statistics — the two most crucial to the analysis of price movement over time. If we start talking geometry and stats, the hecklers will go ballistic!
As for current price action in metals, it may not hit 24% or 38% retracements, round 1108 and 1123, respectively — or it may. I agree with your comments from the weekend: That the bounce would not be tradeable (because the probabilities are not high enough 🙂 )
Lots of Fed members will speak on Thursday…
Good morning, Z! 🙂
I personally have never liked Theory of Probabilities and Statistics [alongside Trigonometry] but I’ve loved Calculus, 3D Geometry and the systems computation area of Algebra. My favorite part of math has been giving me a complicated function (not a trigonometric one, though 🙂 ) and letting me to put it on a graph –> this task embraced all aspects of calculus (limits, derivatives, integrals) and a tiny bit of geometry.
On the other hand, I will have to dive back into Stats for tweaking my system (especially that of writing puts) but that at a later stage.
Reverting, I think USX has to test its high of 120 reached some 15 years ago before swinging lower for a significant period of time. It may be the case that USD’s bull to be so strong as to break that resistance of 120 (of course, after a pullback most likely in 2017-2018 in anticipation of the next stock market bear) and that we may see USX higher through 2018 and part of 2019.
Thus, the real longer-term dive in USD may only come in the whereabouts of 2019 and it will be only then that THE NEXT BIG GOLD BULL WILL COME.
until then, though…only lackluster shining stifled by USD’s rise as we walk deaper into the K-spring (MIND THAT ALSO GOLD’S PARABOLLIC MOVE IN 2011 CAME AS USD WAS IN AN YEALY CYCLE DECLINE CAUSED BY FED’S MONEY PRINTING)
Gold rally is imminent imho 🙂
Good morning Alex
(evening over here)
I get what you’re saying — I, too, am a math lover 🙂
BTW, after posting, I wanted to edit my post — Where I wrote “statistics”, I meant strictly probabilities. At Uni, the courses are “Statistics and Probabilities”, commonly called “Stats”. I like the whole notion of probabilities — enthusiastically watching the World Series of Poker, another game of skill and probability (that I have never played for money, but love to watch at the top level).
Then, the geometry/trig aspect — the market patterns. So you see the same thing as I do: The 2011 peak as that parabolic top.
So you get what I said the other day, about the allure of the gold mining stocks — GDX. The Chaplin film captures the emotion of it perfectly — something you can relate to in your aversion to trading it. Of course, when you lay the charts on top of each other, the gold looks tame next to GDX, which in turn is dwarfed by the NUGT/DUST combo. Thus, the tramp heads off to the Yukon to try his luck at getting a piece of the action: A zillion dollars, the girl from the mining town, and riding in style, first class on the ocean liner to San Francisco.
As in the film, at first glance, this seems impossible, random, controlled by daunting outside forces (the manipulators), etc., but if your chart interpretations are solid, then it becomes a question of tightening or loosening your probability assessment. Cis, Japan’s #1 day trader, claims a 60% success rate on trades. I really want to get to 80% — perhaps even 90%, without tightening my analysis so much that I miss too many trades. Who knows if I’ll ever get there, but that’s my goal.
I get what you’re saying — I, too, am a math lover 🙂
Have you guys found the pulse of the Gold chart yet, the one prediciting the future 😛 I’ve tried to get Gary interested but there is always silence in the end. No worries this is far from being a uniq reaction. I’ve been kicked out of several goldbug forums for stateing that the bear will not end until late 2018/early 2019
I think the gold market is in a corrective phase, at the multi-year level you’re talking about — I believe that would be cycle degree. Cycle wave A down has taken 4 years — cycle wave B up could take ?? 3-5 ?? years?? — Cycle wave C, another 4 years down. Or a double zig zag or something — lots of possible corrective patterns still on the table, and though Alex and I have similar ideas about supercycle degree (that 2011 was a parabolic top of a supercycle begun in 1913), that’s not a proven certainty so far. So that means long term buy and hold is a low probability setup in terms of duration of trade.
Where I’m finding higher probability setups is not even at the intermediate degree, rather, at the daily cycle degree, and even one lower degree — minute degree. I use the 30 min chart for GDX (13 daily candles of equal time) and 2 hrs for gold (12 daily candles, of which one is shorter than the rest). Looking at GDX even one degree lower (minuet degree – 3 min chart) is also very helpful.
People will talk about how long the bear will go on (I do, on occasion). Some people will pick it right, most will not. Regardless, that multi-year time frame is a very high risk trade right now. The intermediate cycle is in decline, but the trade begins at the daily (minor) cycle and perhaps minute degree. This week, the setup has looked complex and corrective — best avoided, unless you are trading off the 3 min chart for GDX, to scalp with NUGT and DUST. So supercycle, cycle, and maybe primary (yearly) charts may not be totally clear. Intermediate, daily and shorter time frame charts seem to have higher probability setups. I wouldn’t take any long term outlook too seriously — not even my own 🙂
I would argue that the top in 2011 wasn’t even close to a parabola. There was almost no participation from the public and gold barely stretched 30%above the 200 DMA. It certainly never gained 100% in a year or less.
If you want to see what a parabola looks like go to the oil chart in 2008.
I wouldn’t take any long term outlook too seriously — not even my own 🙂
I am taking it dead serious because i know it will work. However there is x rallies in between ready to be exploited and the first one is imminent if we can stay above 1073 that is.
My point exactly. The different waves within the correction can be successfully traded — that’s what I meant by “taking seriously” — seriously enough to warrant putting funds at risk. But if the market is trending strongly at intermediate, daily cycle, or even intra-day degree, I would take those forecasts much more seriously — again in terms of risk/reward.
I still pay attention, however, to long range forecasts, not to trade, but to help figure out the context of the market activity.