Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Not likely. This is just a dent in a major BULL market. The S&P has been the last few months resiliant
and if this is anything to go by, this rally could continue with a target on the up to the 2130 area and maybe higher by end 2015.
I’m still in the camp that we need a bubble phase in stocks, but the 7 YCL should be the correction that sets up the final run, like 98 wasthe final sentiment reset before we were off to the races.
It got a good start this summer but was aborted prematurely.
Gary,
do you think PM stocks will be among the best performers if this final bubble phase for the stock market will happen?
Of course it will need Gold to go up as well and if you think that way this puts you on the same line of thought of Martin Armstrong!
I’ll pray for this scenario!!!! 🙂
Yes the abortion Doctor’s name is Yellen; and TBTF banks taking turns to act as PPT on a rotating basis on instructions from the Fed.
To me October was saved by PPT, but I am hoping against all hope that the crash or the aborted wave 5 down in stocks was just translated forward to November/Dec now.
We shall see.
That’s so incredible Mr. Savage with my timing band of peak gold run aka 1160 mid Feb 2016 then bottom mid Oct 2016 1025.
Sounds logical and viable to you?
Like I always say the bigger the bear… The bigger the bull. As the global equity, bond and fiat currency markets break there is only one place to be HARD ASSETS.
Gold, silver and their respective producers are going to the moon! ?
David,
I think we are coming to the end of the bear possibly in Dec if gold can make a lower low. And there is still a chance that the bear ended back in july if the double bottom holds.
I was about to renounce my Elliott Wave belief if we made a new high in the SPX. But I have been saved and now predict that we are in a big wave 3 down that will break the Aug lows dead ahead.
No way Jose, thinkin’ Mr Savage has it correct min 2007 max 1994.
Extreme terrorist circumstance 1960?
yes, Gary. This time I agree with you that stocks are set for an extended loss.
I was at odds when you claimed stocks to go up, up and up, when you’ve said until now that the bubble phase in stocks had started.
Stocks have commenced their INTERMEDIATE CYCLE DECLINE –> ON FRIDAY NYSE COMPOSITE BOTH:
– CLOSED BELOW THEIR 50DMA AND
– HAD A FOLLOW-THROUGH BELOW THE LOWER DAILY CYCLE BAND
– THERE WAS NO BUYING ON WEAKNESS DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE DECLINE.!
All these 3 arguments are very strong to show that it is unwise to be in stocks until ICL.
I doubt though that there will be a lower low ….
MY STRATEGY:
Even though the DCL in stocks is very close (to come next week) and an uptrend towards the new DCH is to ensue, I will mark small losses on Monday morning and cut my stocks exposure to below 50% on Monday (from some 80% now) and I will go back to 100% cash as the new DCH come in sight in late Nov or early Dec.
VIX has decisevely cut through its 50dma and has had follow through on its 200dma.
It will go a little bit higher to some 22 from 20 now and then will retest its 50dma (as SPX will go up to its DCH) and then VIX will test its pivot at 28.3 –> i expect VIX to break out there and that that B/O to fail –> it will be there that the ICL in spx will be attained.
BUYING SIGNAL = VIX reaching its pivot of 28.3 in January
….so much we’ve had of the bubble phase call in stocks 🙂 🙂 …
On the S&P, the next stop lower would logically be the 50 day moving average which sits at 2007. (we closed at 2023) BUT just remember, the 50 day is already BELOW the 200 day, which in itself is a sign of weakness. In a strong market the 50 day is well above the 200 day.
There is EXTREME confusion outhere……
Someone says : gold will go up and the stock market will go down…….others : gold will go up with the stock market and the dollar but it will make a new low before this scenario will happen (Martin Armstrong)….others : gold will go down at $600 (Harry Dent and many others “gurus” lately)……others : Miners will diverge from gold and not follow it in making new lows…….then there are many other hypothesis : bond will crash/bonds will make new highs……stocks will go parabolic and create a huge bubble (Martin Armstrong and Gary Savage)….stocks will lose 90% from these levels ( Mc Hugh-Bo Polny-Peter Schiff and many others…..
Then there are LOTS of Black Swans flying around the world….the smell of war can be easily perceived.
It’s not easy to exit from the trence…….
Name me one time in history when trading stocks was easy 🙂
You’re perfectly right Gary.
In addition I think we are nearing the end of the post world war 2 era.
Times are a changing….interesting (devastating) times are approaching.
Harry Dent(the dent is in his brain) is the modern day permabear, he needs serious help like from a Team of psychiatrists from Viennna. Martin Armstrong is not far behind in that, either. Kookoo kookoo kookoo…
This is fluid right now and could go either way. If the DCL can continue down this week and at least test the 62% Fib (1960) then we have a chance of finishing the move down into the 7 YCL that was aborted this summer.
If the PPT steps in Monday and we just stop right here then it’s unlikely we will see stocks drop below the Aug.lows.