35 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Jay

    Yeah, it is really never worth bothering shorting. Low is likely in for the month and the rest of the year as well. Buy all dips until it stops working.

  2. David Silver

    Hear hear Mr. Savage!
    The opposite happened on all fronts, who would’ve thought? Should’ve been me being a contrarian but wasn’t. Hello McFly?
    Long crude and FB.

  3. Jay

    As a big short seller once told me: “You better believe in the PPT! If you don’t now, you will!” 🙂

  4. Bill in Tokyo

    Yup, the outside reversal candle on the daily chart looks that way. But the MACD is still pretty far from crossing up yet – me, I’m going to wait for a wee pullback, and then a 2nd candle higher, and buy then.

    I do think that we can make money shorting the S&P at some point, probably next year though. I still think this is just a backtest, before we crash and burn to 666 again.

  5. tom

    I don’t comment often, but I copied what I said right into the highs on Nov. 3. This will take time to set up, but I believe that stocks headed back to Aug. 24 lows and then we’ll see. Over the next 6 months, there should be an outstanding buying opp for a Dow to run to 30K. Should be great trading on both sides of the market. Super bullish longer term, quite bearish intermediate.
    tom
    November 3, 2015 at 7:44 pm
    So the consensus on here, except for Gary, is that gold is still totally bearish. Keep that in mind folks, just a little piece of the puzzle.
    As to stocks, I’ve continued to believe that SPY goes to newish highs and then we have a very trade-able shorting opportunity, A few of the other pieces of that shorting opportunity puzzle are now taking shape. IWM at 119 and now above its 9/27 rally high. IYT continuing to lag. And my favorite index the DJ Composite continuing to lag- now I’m watching for the next potential short term selling wave with heavy volume to show that the quality sellers are back in the market, ie distribution coming back in. Then I start legging in by shorting into rallies, Lets see what unfolds here. Just as the IWM beautifully set up the last rally with its accumulation area from 9/29 to 10/1, lets wait for market to “speak”. But this is an area now to watch – my antennae are back up.

  6. MuffinTop

    A suspicious looking candle indeed folks.. but I’m gonna wait for the SPY to break the highs and swing back around support before going in full force cuz right now we are in ‘no man’s land’ — me thinks.

    Ps: Still ‘selectively’ a Gold Bull long-term. Anytime the Miners are trading at a 90% discount.. you buy, you hold, and you stop complaining every time Gold drops a beat 🙂

    High five.

  7. MuffinTop

    From DailyFx —

    “The broader bearish outlook remains unchanged, decline maybe reaching a near-term exhaustion point. Last week we noted that the recent decline had seen an, “eight-day losing streak (longest since July) with prices at risk for further losses..” Since the October 15th highs at 1191 prices have fallen more than 9%, marking losses on 19 of the past 22 trade sessions with the daily momentum signature continuing to flatten out. My colleague Jamie Saettele summed it up best: it’s simply too early to buy & too late to sell.

    Look for interim resistance at 1096/99 on a rebound with only a breach above former TL resistance dating back to the 2015 highs (~1112) invalidating the near-term downtrend. A break below the July low targets objectives at the 100% extension of the decline off the yearly high at 1067 and the broader 61.8% extension of the decline off the 2012 high at 1053. Bottom line: gold prices are at risk for a near-term rebound early next week which may offer more favorable short entries.”

  8. Hong Bang

    Thanks Gary,

    Oil bouncing, with that kind of market, we keep an open mind to the possibility of short daily cycle for oil. Everybody think oil go lower now. Maybe, but it could bounce hard first.

    We see the kind of volatility in stock.

    Hmnn… 100% in Cash.

    We have the Swing in Gold but it closed in the low, so need at least one follow through before Buying.

    Good luck all

  9. Gary Post author

    Oil isn’t tradeable right now. We have a failed daily cycle in play but oil could also follow the stock market higher so it’s neither a buy nor a sell right here.

    Better to just trade stocks. At least there you have the Fed protecting you.

  10. David Silver

    USD apparently heading higher inversely affecting the Yen and Euro.
    Obvioulsy going to hinder gokd advancing.
    Thinkin crude will follow energy stocks to higher ground just as they tanked together early November.

  11. William

    Gold daily = murky candle-sticks; Gold weekly = doji candle-stick; Gold monthly = bearish engulfing…

    Conclusion: To avert further sell-off, gold urgently needs to repair its monthly candle-stick by the end of this month…else, Zzzzzzzz….

  12. Hong Bang

    Bearish sentiment goes mainstream with Armstrong’s recent articles about Gold.

    The Bounce is very close my friend.

    Thanks

  13. Anthonyo

    There are no markets in the world.
    Darn the PPT; they reversed the Sunday night fall and then some leaving the hopeful shorts wide-eyed and bewildered once again.
    Now, SPX 1500-1700 seem so un-achievable again. There is just no winning for shorts in this market.

  14. chris

    I think to be a wise trader, it’s better to trust price actions than to attribute everything to manipulation. If price is in favor of you, it’s market behavior, if not it’s manipulation. This is harmful thoughts. Example, if they could manipulate so much, why let gold rallied from $300 to $1900?

    Also, what makes people think that market is logical? If good news market rallies, bad news EG. Paris attack market drops, then even kindergarten kids can invest. Just ask them, “Boy, is this good news or bad news?” Logical right?;)

    And you don’t need Armstrong posts and to bring down gold today. I already said yesterday, the number one investing lesson that all could learn is…. If something suppose to go up doesn’t, it’s going down.

    1. MuffinTop

      I don’t know that you can really ‘trust’ price action because price action can turn on you at the drop of a dime — I’ve seen more than my fair share. In fact, sometimes it’s more prudent [and wise] to be a Contrarian Trader, albeit at the right time and only when the Fundamentals are hinting at a major shift.

      Currently.. Retail stocks are getting their asses kicked [not a good sign for the US Economy], the S&P trades below its 200 dma and all the while, Miners are building a base of some sort. That could all change of course and if you’re a swing trader this information is of little consequence, but for those of you looking at the bigger picture; these are points that need to be carefully considered 😉

      The long and short of it: I wouldn’t completely discount Gold Stocks; they might surprise you. And I wouldn’t completely trust the SM until it has confidently breached the very top of the puddle.

    2. Anthonyo

      Chris,
      There is truth to what you say. But at the same time, there is clear and present gov manipulation of markets especially stocks. They recruite TBTF banks to do the pumping for them on a rotating basis. PPT, as such, is not 1 entity but a conglomeration of bigbanks, the Fed, Treasury, and in extreme cases foreign banks too.
      The evidence is too clear and strong for su to deny it.
      They manipulate UP obviously as the system is slave to Corporate health and happiness.

      As for your example of gold goung up from 300 to say 1900s and why that was allowed. Gold is now being traded internationally, US cannot single handedly control its price the way they could say in the 60s or 70s. Too many international hands now in gold due to the advent of internet too. Hence no or less control by US gov. But they do pound its head as much as they can anyway.

  15. AlexP

    As expected after Friday’s oversold action, DCL came quickly this week.
    19% exposure on one stock, rest is cash.

    The rebound into the new DC has been of poor quality despite the shiny upthrust candle –> this corroborates that we are in INTERMEDIARY CYCLE DECLINE and that being heavily invested in stocks is unwise.

    A dead cat bounce is in its forming as stocks move to their DCH.
    I AM GOING TO MAKE ANOTHER “GUESS” (just as I did on Oct23 calling the exhaustion gap and that 2077 was too high for SPX or that crude and gold would continue their decline etc) –> the maximum level SPX will attain is 2104, most likely it will be lower but it cannot go beyond 2104.

    So be quick to sell as SPX nears 2100 level

  16. chris

    Ya price action can turn on you very quickly. So its better to look at multiple time frames. And yes, I believe there could be manipulation, but I don’t wanna attribute anything it. I could even argue that everything is being manipulated.

    The thing is, I don’t care if it’s manipulated or not. If it is, I trade along the manipulation. Less stressful. Why fight manipulation?

    1. Gary Post author

      Chris,
      Exactly. And that’s why we have done so well in the stock market this year. I don’t try to fight the manipulation. If the Fed wants to guarantee my stock investments who am I to argue with them. I just let them make me money.

  17. David Silver

    New revelation in gold:

    GDXJ today closed the gap from 11/5 (bearish)
    If gold can’t close above 1194.80 and truncates the 1172.30 level (1075.60 overnight low thus far) then it will confirm a continued downtrend cycle lasting till Mid June.
    Bottom target is no longer 1025.25 as I originally calculated but lower @ 956.20.
    USD should eventually tag $107.93
    This too should both pressure crude after this current bear market rally to $45.36/51ish down eventually to $32.99.

    Long FB
    Long crude
    May take a position in DUST depending on overnight price action at the open or via strategic limit orders .

      1. Anthonyo

        Gary,
        Looks like we are not too far away from your 1050 line in gold. It is trading at 1068 cash as of this writing now.
        Personally, I like to see it dip below 1000 however short duration it may be to flush out all weak hands and bring a doom scenario before the bulls’ eyes. Only then we can find a bottom in gold.

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