59 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. David Silver

    Mr. Savage if you were to take a step back and examine her weekly one could safely say it has only been one month since gold’s peak hence my revelation of gold sub 1K per 7 more months of her descending cycle left based on my observations. Gold had her chance to shine yesterday and the powers that be let her slip away and in fact I’ve witnessed a handful of shenanigans by the banksters again this past month so it’s the same old song and dance going forward IMO.
    I was bullish until yesterday and yes perhaps premature going bearish now without a daily and weekly swing confirmaton registering.
    Something just doesn’t feel right here lately and besides King USD is again her almighty thorn.

    PS Your welcome.Hong!

    1. Panos

      Unfortunately the analysis on gold in most blogs which are ‘goldfriendly’ has cost a fortune to a lot of people who follow them. The goldbugs have been wrong all the way down from 2011. Everytime they try to find a reason to call the final bottom and never accept that they are wrong. People need to be careful of the so-called ‘experts’. Some of them argue that they called the major tops in the past and make forecasts of gold going to $2000 and $10000 very soon. Everytime they are wrong they simply remove those posts (see gold2020 forecast) which is completely unethical and fraud.

  2. David Silver

    I forgot to mention I think your timing bands may be flawed:
    July was her YCL.
    October was her YCH.
    June 2016 next YCL.
    Her time count is 3 months up/8 months down

    1. Gary Post author

      If gold drops below 1171 before Jan. 1 then the YCL will occur this winter, just like it did last year. YCL’s usually run about 12 months apart.

  3. William

    Gary, incidentally, $1,050-ish is circa the support right on gold’s “monthly” uptrend support line from year 1999!!!

    1. William

      The uptrend from Year 1999 was the original bottom in Gold. Therefore, this trend-line matters! And, bull is not over until this trend-line is broken down on a monthly closing basis!

  4. Bill in Tokyo

    I remember there was once an old sage who came upon a rare desert turtle. It was a sign. His eyes suddenly opened and he became enlightened, and exclaimed that $GOLD would retest 1030.

    THAT’s the number me thinks. 1033.90, to be exact.

    1. William

      And this, incidentally again, fit the support level right on the weekly chart uptrend support line from 1999!!!

  5. Hong Bang

    Thanks William,

    At this Point, we have to be patient to see if USD can break 100 this week & gold break down through 1070 or not.

    Stay in CASH until SWINGS.

    Gold & USD are very late in their respective daily cycle, so one do not need to chase price here.

    Patience mes amis !!!

  6. Dan

    Let’s see these criminals take stocks to new highs before you all give up shorting and chase. One of my accounts is up 60% shorting biotechs so don’t tell me it never works.

  7. karni

    I told you the YCL is already behind us every year for 12 weeks….. you will never learn to make your homework.

  8. chris

    Guys, your trendlines are so biased. I resisted commenting last time but I can’t hold it now. The real line is the white dotted line and already broken. The rest of the line are less significant and subjective.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not sure what you mean. I connected the lowest pivots from the highest ICL to the most recent ICL.

      My basic premise however has nothing ot do with trend lines but with regression. To drop to the mid 900’s in the next month would probably require gold to stretch too far below the 200 WMA. So it seems unlikely IMO. A drop to 1050ish seems more likely.

  9. Johan

    Hi guys,

    for reference, plz take a look at the monthly/quarterly CRB index – it is down at lows not seen since the 80s. Basically at the lows of a massive trading range going back into the 80s. Gold and silver have performed better than the rest of the commodities, so they have more room to fall if this massive support we are at now in CRB would fail. And with the extremely strong USD there is a risk that this would happen, if so look out below – definitely in gold and silver too!!

  10. William

    FYI, CRB index is non-tradable (I.e there is no etf that can dictate its movement) therefore, it is really just for reference only I’m afraid…

  11. Johan

    Hi William,

    that is not really of interest to me, what is interesting is what the index tells us relating to how we should trade commodities generally, and including gold and silver. It is at low major support currently, if it breaks down there is really no support underneath until much further down.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sentiment will act as support. Sentiment on the CRB is already reaching extreme levels again.

  12. William

    Hi Johan, what I meant is that these day etfs are the drivers that dictate the movement in the underlying indices…SPY for SPX, so on and so forth.

    However, since there is no tradable etf for CRB per Se, the individual trend of its respective underlying commodities becomes more important…in other word, what I am saying is that the trend for CRB is the causation of individual commodities’ movement…not vice versa!

  13. Johan

    Hi William,

    to be honest I think that is a bit too technical and not very important. The CRB index is a very important commodities index and it is close to breaking down, that says a lot in my book at least.

  14. David Silver

    Goiing to hold off on DUST for gold break of 1072.
    Buying ANGI at open (take advantage of weakness).

  15. AlexP

    USD ripe for the daily cycle dive –> BIIIG dive tomorrow; DCL on Thursday/Friday.
    Gold will have the chance to put its DCH in the new cycle.

    Stocks continue to show underlining weakness beneath cosmetic recovery –> the intermediary cycle decline is intact; DCH to be reach at maximum 2104, most likely around 2090 in less than 2 weeks.

  16. chris

    I have made a mistake. I said based on technical, gold’s a buy as it cleared weekly higher high of 1095 yesterday. But based on events, I would not touch it. It’s wrong. Actually gld is equally important. Gld did not take it previous week high. So, even technically, gold is not a buy. In fact, gld just took out last week small range low. Ie. Ugly.

    I recalled when i used to trade gold frequently that gld is important. But as I hardly trade it now, I overlooked it.

    1. AlexP

      nope sorry, Paul!
      both usd and gold will move against their main trends to accomplish their cyclical responsabilities and those are very risky ones especially that USD is in a strong bull market –> because of this I expect the retracement to be short, maybe USX will not go even under 98 …

  17. chris

    Gary you are right. But never underestimate it’s importance. It’s weekly, monthly charts smooths out its daily gap. And many investors, retailers, use it as a vehicle.

  18. chris

    There was a guy I forgot whom, from Canada, that I argued a lot agst. Lol. I recalled he said the biggest miner in Canada doing OK chart wise. I guess FNV, FNV.TO could be what he’s referring. Even if not, fnv is a good proxy.

    I am afraid the gold bear is eventually going to chew FNV up. Just like the way it chewed GOLD, RGLD. Both was outperforming til it’s game over.

    Who knows. Maybe with me loud mouthing that gold is so bearish, gold really jinx me and rally?

    I foresee its Inverted HS in 2009, profited. Took profit. Then tried picking bottom til $1400. Quit looking at it. On hindsight, glad I did. My believe is still this. For a less stress way, ignore it for many weeks. If it is about to embark on bull run, you will know. As it will stop making lower lows. Then you participate.

    I have been bottom picker for such long parts of my life. Trust me bottom pickers, when you are like me now, you are a much happier person. If you want to pick bottom, trade it, sell on the bounce. Do not buy it, not take profit, cut loss, buy it, cut losses. It’s so depressing.

    1. David Silver

      From last night:
      New revelation in gold:

      GDXJ today closed the gap from 11/5 (bearish)
      If gold canโ€™t close above 1194.80 and truncates the 1172.30 level (1075.60 overnight low thus far) then it will confirm a continued downtrend cycle lasting till Mid June.
      Bottom target is no longer 1025.25 as I originally calculated but lower @ 956.20.
      USD should eventually tag $107.93
      This too should both pressure crude after this current bear market rally to $45.36/51ish down eventually to $32.99

      And what today’s action it seems that crude may not be validated with that theory
      Should have went with my gut feeling on buying DUSTat the open but made some good money in a ANGII nonetheless

  19. chris

    Gary, I wasn’t referring to your trendlines. I was referring to the attachment. Someone drew the chart using Bloomberg. Its in the attchments. Flawed trendlines.

      1. AlexP

        this is one of the many reasons I still use old mobile phones (Samsung 1100 is my favorite), actually I dislike smartphones and I cannot understand this trend outside of whim satisfaction.
        or maybe it’s only that I am getting old ;;)
        anyway, I am stashing old mobile phones just in case the industry will refuse producing them anymore in several years ๐Ÿ™‚

      2. ndmaster

        Don’t you mean speech to text? Google has a pretty good voice command and recognition software. I use it all the time with very good results. Just don’t shout at it.

  20. Jay

    Okay, fess up! How many folks here are trapped long in GDX and wondering if it will ever stop going down? ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Hong Bang

      Yes that is the game. :o)

      Watching Oil very close to take position 35 – 38 zone. Gold SWING and BUY 1060 – 1075 zone.

  21. AlexP

    no trade should produce a loss larger than -8% (i.e. maximum -2% of equity for a 25% maximum position).
    and these loose parameters should be set solely for an excellent market setup + excellent stock (for stock trades).
    anyone who abides to this cannot find himself trapped in any trade, otherwise…you are right, Jay ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. AlexP

      welcome, Hong!
      but to accomplish that, you need to cut leverage out of your trades and settle your trades on “normal”-volatility assets (such as stocks but not on margin).
      only after you have mastered trading that way, will you be able to move into larger volatility trading, such as on margin, and so on, but not from the very beginning.

      personally I prefer cutting leverage/margin altogether

    1. Tushar

      Thanks Hong. I don’t have access to Keltner Band but TSI 7,4,7 on GLD has crossed over whereas in $gold it hasn’t.

  22. Dan

    I’m approaching this as the SPY top was made in May and these gangsters won’t be able to float it to new highs. The Nasdaq didn’t even make it on the last October run. Blow through there WITH VOLUME, ok, Fed criminals win. It’s low risk for me, with tremendous upside if the market falls apart and finally catches down to reality.

  23. Gary Post author

    I would love to see the market roll over and finish the move down into the DCL that was aborted by the PPT yesterday, but I don’t have high hopes.

    1. AlexP

      Gary, the market will resume its intermediary decline but SPX needs first to prove it is in a new DC by breaking the trendline –> it will have the chance tomorrow after FOMC minutes and on Thursday thanks to inertia.

      As i said, SPX cannot go above 2104 before putting its ICL on January jobs report, Jan08 ๐Ÿ˜‰

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