61 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Galen

    I believe the volume in nugt today is a tell tale sign of a change. Individual investors are not going to pile in nugt with this level of pessimism. Only deep pockets could create that much volume. Change is in the air. The Fed left itself an out in the minutes released today.

  2. Stevie

    You’ve been singing the same song for years. When it was at 1700 folks were calling for 1400..it hit.
    When its at 1400 folks were calling for 1200.. It hit.
    At 1200 folks were calling for 1,050…got to 12 bucks away last night. So, can an oversold item be more oversold? Yes.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to keep trying to call the bottom. Even if I just make some money on a bear market rally, I got nothing against that. Eventually I’m going to get THE bottom and then it will be off to the races.

      We are up nicely so far this year even though gold has made new lows. Like I said one can make nice gains trading bear market rallies.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m looking at change in volume. Based on price per share the rally yesterday was one of the highest in history at over 310 million dollars.

  3. David Silver

    Can’t say I agree here now Mr. Savage:
    Gold and crude both printed lower intraday lows. The FED minutes was their savior that escalated them to higher ground. It wasn’t an all out blitz breakout with conviction.
    Gold has not produced a daily swing low so why the heroic call here?
    USD has topped or just merely consolidating (key for commodity direction).
    Safest bet going long US stocks.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not ready to call the daily or intermediate bottom just yet. But sentiment is at levels where it’s going to form very soon. I don’t want to be short with sentiment this bearish and the TSI at -92.

      1. David Silver

        I hear ya, my crstal ball has been broken as of late on commodity direction but lucky with stocks!

        PS: Same to you Hong!

  4. Hong Bang

    Hi Mark,

    Regarding Larry Edelson, he has a model predicting Gold & other assets’s price with exact date in the future.

    The problem is that, i saw him changing this graph & of course the date more than twice in the past with his gold model. Noone can be right all time, but Larry , i read him for several years & not yet seeing him Admitting Wrong Call.

    You can read his gold forecast article in feb 2015.

    :@)

  5. MuffinTop

    Gary.. enlighten me if you could.. 3X ETF’s are normally recommended for a day trade – two or three at the most – because of decay and/or volatility. You, yourself, once called NUGT a ‘widowmaker’… if so, then why would ‘so called’ smart money position themselves in that kind of investment vehicle?

    I’m asking because in my experience ‘smart money’ will generally re-position themselves for a long term trend shift, as oppose to a quick wham bang thank you ma’am!

    Help meeeeeeee!

    1. JT

      Be very careful with NUGT or DUST. You must have a time-limit and a tight-stop on those beasts, or they will ruin your portfolio.

      -The voice of experience here.

    2. William

      Mr Muffin, that’s the only “thing” i touched since Aug…and it served me very well!
      No of course with your added recommendation…haha..

      I suppose the leverage etfs get knocked out by the decay things if you buy and hold for a long period of time say more than 6 months and especially in a whip-saw market or worst one gets the directional trade completely wrong, then, by design, it can go to zero while the underlying stock won’t.

      So, for a swing trade say for a multi-weeks, it will be just fine!

      1. William

        and yes…a very tight stop loss…but the tight stop loss works both way, NUGT likes to stop you out and then rally non-stop without you around. Therefore, stop loss can be very arbitrary at times…

        Trading is tough!

        1. Gary Post author

          I usually cringe when I hear traders say they have a tight stop. Most of the time it just guarantees a loss.

          Stops that are too tight have probably cost traders more money than bear markets.

    3. Gary Post author

      Muffin,
      If you catch an intermediate cycle low and ride it to the top of the rally one can make a lot of money in a triple leveraged fund. Everyone one of those bear market rallies did 60% or better in NUGT.

      Plus I’ll say it again. The initial rally out of a final bear market bottom is where the biggest and fastest gains are made. Smart money knows this and it’s why they keep trying to catch the bottom. Miners rallied 100% in two months out of the bear market bottom in 2008.

      1. MuffinTop

        Thx guys for all the info.. So we agree that ‘smart money’ would never position themselves in NUGT/JNUG for a long term trend move that could last for many months on end, but would instead ride out an intermediate cycle and exit at the top. Interesting…

        Anyone out there considering SGDM instead of GDX for an eventual long term play? It’s a fairly new ETF but I like the strategy behind it — it makes sense to me.

        1. William

          No problem at all. If i remembered correctly, back then, when SGDM was launched, one of the marketing tag-line was that Sprott does try to sniff out the better miners as opposed to a really passive etf strategy employed as in GDX.

          So, one would expect a much better performance from SGDM over GDX right?

          Wrong. Just ran the performance comparison of SGDM vs. GDX since SGDM’s inception in July 2014. Both were down by -42.19% and -42.26% respectively…no different at all!

          The only difference that i can see clearly from its constituents is that the top holding in SGDM is Franco Nevada…an undisputed outperformer!

          I suppose once you hold more then certain number of stocks, the diversification effect could hurt too since you would be holding too many underperformers…

          So, bottom-up stock picking is still the key and SGDM is not helping much unfortunately.

  6. Jay

    Maybe the volume is simply because the “smart money” covered their NUGT shorts, and not because they’re initiating long positions! ๐Ÿ™‚

  7. William

    DXY has a weekly shooting star as of NOW…need this pattern to hold till Friday’s closing to affirm the swing in precious metals…

  8. Don

    When will ‘they’ start manipulating the price of gold upwards? Anyone have a clue? That’s when I want to buy.

  9. David Silver

    William I just don’t see the USD changing course. The Yen and Euro are still heading south.
    How can this e beneficial for gold?

    1. Al

      Don’t post often but Just a couple of observations for what they’re worth. A) It’s shark week- the whipsaw nonsense will be played for the reasons professionals all know. Not reading much into this action until it’s done. B) Precious metals are tied to other commodities and hugely so in extraction. The geniuses who are calling for $600 dollar gold may well be right in some ridiculous spike low, but not even medium term would it stay there. What would the price of copper and base metals be at that point? Would there even be a mine outside some government control even running? Think about it? It’s ridiculous. I’d love it to go there it would guarantee silver at least would have a shortage of my lifetime very quickly as mine after mine were put on maintenance at best.

    2. William

      Hi Dave, it will be later if DXY actually close the week with its weekly shooting star candle-stick. But even if it doesn’t, this could be one of those time where DXY can go sideways while letting gold to do its swing…

      The above is purely technical…but even if this swing doesn’t put in a bottom, a rate hike in December is very likely to put Ina bottom in gold…

      1. William

        Also, if we have a weekly shooting star as of tomorrow’s close, then it follows that the chances of having a monthly shooting star is very high…

  10. zkotpen

    As always, FOMC meeting/minutes are always good for 1-3 reversals in gold.

    I think the first was 1064 on Wednesday.

  11. zkotpen

    G’day Alex!

    Yep, I think we’re on the same or similar page in gold.

    I’ve revised my upside targets down a notch. The ~1100 area is still on my radar. Then there’s a more bearish 1085-90 area…

    Still can’t help but think there’s usually a small Thanksgiving rally after the mid-Nov FOMC minutes —

    1. AlexP

      ๐Ÿ™‚ good morning, Z!

      and both USX and gold show constructive meeting of our expectations as they’ve both just produced swing high and swing low respectively, while USX particularly has had a first attempt to break the daily cycle trendline (got rejected but thrust is to come later today ๐Ÿ™‚ )

      I said merely “expectations” and not “trades” because I am not trading the upthrust in gold (or the downthrust in USX) that have emerged since they are counter main trend and I have it as a risk management rule.
      I am only 20% in a medical software stock which will break up big these days; I prefer not to tell out its name publicly because it is thinly traded.

      if you’re long gold, good luck, Z! ๐Ÿ˜‰

  12. David Silver

    Two stocks on my radar buy:
    GOOG (embarking on a technical breakout)
    BIDU (also embarking on a technical breakout)

    May sell out of my commodity shorts sometime tomorrow and take a break till swing low/high signals are registered and then and only then re enter positions depending on circumstances.
    Will use the proceeds in above stocks tomorrow if applicable. Been out of sync the last two weeks (watched many made fortunes vanish). Still for the life of me haven’t used stop limits and with my work hard to daytrade. I think my problem is I’m to impatient and need to take a longer horizon i.e swing trading vs. panic day trading in which I hate.

    Also holding FB, WTW and ANGI

    If I buried a time capsule and could not open it up for a decade I would buy and hold FB and GOOG (best stocks to own going forward in this universe due to their stranglehold and diverse nature of technologies).

    Best bet is US stocks at the moment.
    Who knows maybe by the open commodity shorts may be back in business with the USD taking shape.

  13. chris

    Go take a look at German dax. Lots of playing catch up to US indices. Given how correlated they are, and US tends to outperform dax, US should be embarking on new highs soon.

  14. AlexP

    with new high above 2116 in SPX or not, this daily cycle will prove left-translated –> in less than 2w I will be 100% in cash waiting for the ICL in the range 1950-2000 around JAN08.
    But it is more likely that SPX will not move over the 2014 notch than rendering a higher high.

    This up move has all the traits of a dead-cat bounce and the long shiny marubozu candles are lights to put stock bulls’ skin on fire in the 2nd half of DEC and in early JAN

    1. AlexP

      FED needs to save face, reinforce its credibility by starting to raise rates – it was in DEC that Bernanke started to kill QE3, it was also in DEC that Yellen killed QE3; now DEC … is near us too and there is plenty of fundamental data to support this move (weak commodity prices too, since they do not pose a deflationary threat by being too weak and a low price now to a central banker means the prospect of a higher price in 1Y).

      Thus, the market will need some time chew up the hot bacon of a slowly contracting monetary policy.

      The market will move up all right (I disagree we will see new lows) to new historical highs as traders will have got used psychologically that “these FED hikes are accommodative and not threatening after all”.
      Buuut ….until then, first things first…and ADDITIONALY the market DOES ALSO PROVIDE PLENTIFUL TECHNICAL DATA TO SUPPORT THE DEAD-CAT BOUNCE THESIS ON ITS OWN.
      just plenty since the end of last Friday when I realized that the intermediary cycle decline is in the books with high probability.

  15. zkotpen

    Alex,

    I’m with you on the gold USD moves — probably stocks as well (though I watch them less).

    Medical software company — interesting!?!

    Not long gold — too risky at the moment.

    Cheers!

    1. AlexP

      ๐Ÿ™‚ yes, indeed, Z, very risky trading secondary trends especially now with USX and, by ricochet, with gold too

      1. Hong Bang

        There are always risks in the market!

        No risk no reward ! Now reward clearly favorize Long Gold, AFTER SWING of course!

        Waiting patiently for Swing.

  16. chris

    When I look at DWTI vs UWTI, DWTI looks so bullish. Ie oil still have room to drop. Then if WTIC correlates well with gold, not easy for gold to rally much. So yes, buying gold now doesn’t seem like good odds.

  17. Mark

    Anyone here know if it’s worth to join the financial “restructuring” of Allied Nevada?
    I’m one of the poor pigs slaughtered by their “management”!!!!
    They have issued a warrant and now the company has changed name from Allied Nevada to Hycroft.
    If someone is in the same situation it’s maybe woth to read this:
    http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/hycroft-mining-corporation-completes-financial-restructuring-process-emerges-from-chapter-2066390.htm

      1. Mark

        You mean that you paid $1200 for the issues of the warrants…?
        It seems to me that they give this warrants free while they changed their name from ANV to Hycroft……….

        1. Simo83

          no the value reported is zero, 1200 dollars were the value of my ANV shares.

          I can buy or sell them from my account because I’m in Italy and for otc market I must ask directly to my bank.

          so these warrant will recover some value or they are worthless?

  18. Simo83

    I’m looking at base metals JJA JJN JJC…relentless selling pressure…the new economy is staying on facebook talking about NOTHING

    1. AlexP

      yes, indeed Herman. USX is late in its daily cycle, day 26.
      It is becoming quite likely (and supported by fundamental analysis) that USX entered its bubble phase –> we will get the technical proof of this thesis as well as the entrance into the 2nd daily cycle of this intermediate cycle if it manages to break above the high of nearly 100 two days ago.

      I am also watching it with interest. If so, I will instantly buy UUP and DZZ to be on board at the very onset of the 2nd DC in the bubble phase of USD

      1. AlexP

        …key is what USX does in the rest of the day. If it remains continues to tread water, then it will draw a harami at an overbought level which will increase the odds significantly to have the daily cycle extended into early next week on day ~28 and with a DCL below 98.5 (EURUSD of about 1.09)

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