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Mr. Savage,
CRB including crude and/or energy?
Yes. Oil is the main driver of the commodity complex. Once crude has completed a bottom then most other commodities will start to go up also.
Whatever. I believe folks will make more in stocks than gold for the next couple years.
Like.. Whatever Ted.
I find it hard to believe that SPX will ever break 2140. There is an esoteric trendline from the eighties with very hard resistance, it has never been broken.
2140 will be cleared, be assured. You know why? Becos many bears would say it’s going to be a bull trap like 2007-2008. Make marginal new high and kill the bulls. But Dow is heading to 23000. So many bears gonna missed tis run again.
Paris Russia bomb din kill Europe, and Europe gonna lead for the next 6 mths. And believe me, not many dare to long the market when it seems so high. So please, bears, please sell your holdings.
I think stocks will need to consolidate some more because the PPT stopped the 7 YCL from completing the much needed correction after 6 years of almost vertical gains. That has driven the stock market too far above the long term mean. Stocks should have at least dropped down to test the 200 week moving average in September but the correction was aborted prematurely. That leaves stocks in a state where the pull of the 7 YCL is still trying to finish the correction but central banks are fighting it with money printing and interventions. That is the recipe for a volatile sideways move this year to allow the 200 more time to catch up to price. Then at some point I think the Fed is finally forced to reengage the currency war and take the dollar back down. That should spark the bubble phase in stocks followed by commodities and gold.
If you look at 2006, spx doesn’t have to touch 200 dma to rally big. Spx corrected big enough in Aug tis year to bring prices not far from 200 dma. Good enough.
Conversely, for miners, go look at GDM. Bullish divergence could be said in late 2014. But what happened is it dropped from 600 to now 370 ish. And now, it could easily drop to 300.