104 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY

  1. BigBangInvestor

    Gary, probably a good idea to wait for the BLEES to get above 21 first… Can’t get a bear market bottom with commercials as short as they are.

  2. AlexP

    Gary, gold will definitely tag that some-1040 line into its DC#3 after having reached its DCH on next Friday or so.
    A shakeout will be produced there and after that … let’s see Empl.Sit. report on DEC04 πŸ™‚

    PS: SPX IS GETTING SLAMMED! i’am awaiting it at some 2040.

    ….PRACTICING THE ART OF PATIENCE! ….. we are feathers in the wind…nutshells on life’s ocean waves … do not fight Lady Market! Empathize with her, listen to her

    1. AlexP

      ….and I was rebuked two weeks ago sharp for calling SPX=2077 too high ! it’s so good to be told “you are wrong” while finding yourself in a minority! πŸ™‚

  3. Stefan

    Yepper the bear in preciousmetals is not over, but I am skeptical that HUI would break 100 for a extended period of time …

  4. Jorgy

    All “assets” will bow down to King Dollar! ??

    Upside target for DXY is 120. The FED is going to raise rates in December and subsequent rate hikes will be every other meeting until we get to 375 bots. Book it! ✌️

  5. Stefan

    I’ve told you many many times Gary that the bear is not over. However I am buying a couple of miners today, my explorers is mostly up today so no worries πŸ™‚ this is going to be a very long boring bear !!!

    Mother nature tells us that, very long cycles is predicting a low mid 2016-March 2017. So stay very patient imho !

  6. AlexP

    after this jobs report, this daily cycle in SPX is most likely to extend while declining into FOMC minutes, i.e. DCL on day 36

  7. chris

    A monkey likes to pounce his chest when there are nails on his chest. So what kind of monkey is it? Smart or follish? Ok, 2000 is top, it rallies to 2050, ok, 2050 is the top, rallies to 2100 , so 2100 is the top. Then when it corrects from 2100, pounce on chest, I am guru, I called the top.

    Ndx abandoned baby . Ya, tis baby abandon Alex at 4600, and rallied away from him. He was then so convicted that Spx gonna drop to 1940 ish I think.

    The difference between man’s character. One, a gentleman like Gary, who admitted he got it wrong on gold tis time round, versus a monkey who’s very loud.

    1. AlexP

      well done, Chris, you imitate a monkey so well! Congratulations! You should run for Oscar, I bet you’d make more dollars in Hollywood.

      My call for a top (DCH) was on Friday, OCT23, at 2077 and I called that it was madness to run this daily cycle bull beyond.
      NASD did not produce an abandoned baby but … it will prove OCT23 to have been on an exhaustion gap.

    1. Tushar

      I was going to say the same! What happened for the fun facts about the TSI on Gold sitting under <-90, down days in Gold rare in history, very long into the daily cycle.

  8. chris

    If tis monkey isn’t so loud trying to proclaim his guru status, I would have shut up. He talks like he is always right. Makes me feel that even Gary is subscribing to his service. Lol.

    You have an opinion, just say your views. That maybe next few days, weeks what’s gonna happen. Quit the I was right about tis, right about that…

    1. AlexP

      I’ve said/admitted when I had been wrong too.
      it’s just that there have been few times of “I was wrong” that you’ve come to notice only the “I have been right” which have been significantly more. PERIOD on this useless topic !

  9. chris

    Whether tis is gonna be like 1999 or not I have no idea. But if it is 1999, Spx is not going to 2040. Bcos if it does, ndx is gonna fill some of the gap. And that’s not what a super bullish market will behave.

    I believe in trading what I see not what I think. After so many days, ndx gap really looks more like breakaway gap. Some still wanna think or guess that it is exhaustion gap? That’s guessing. And guessing is not the job of professionals.

  10. chris

    Hmmm… Ndx showing good strength. Ya , Alex you are right about exhaustion gap… I am exhausted opening my gap on you. And I hope going forward, you would shut the gap on I was right about tis, right about that type of egoistic talks. Just focus on the subject, and less on yourself.

    1. AlexP

      Yes, it is called “natural reaction”.
      Just hope you do not input your trades as you throw your words on this board.
      Good luck there!

    1. Tushar

      Persisting nature of different things daily for the metals, miners and thus it’s been very dynamic for the past three years.

  11. Chris

    Alex, go read through the history. Everyone talks about the subject, about markets etc. Only one monkey likes to add, I was right about this, right about that. I called this on this date, that date etc. OMG, grow up.

  12. Chris

    I know many are expecting Fed to raise rates this December. But they have misled us for entire 2015. Someone here said next month payroll likely weak , giving Fed excuses to pause. I am incline to believe so. WHy? Bcos the market havent reached bubble phase yet. When equities are comfortably above 2015 highs, then the Fed will start to raise rates. Just my logical thinking.

  13. Chris

    Maybe the day gold bottom is the day FED raises rates. And that could be months away. Gold has been dropping since such low rates. Maybe there will be panicked on the day of raising rates, gold drop then reversed? Sell the rumour buy the fact?

  14. Johan

    Hi Alex,

    On your foods in the previous pic comments;

    relating to food for thought 1 I know the US is ahead of Europe business cycle wise and there are many many more fundamental reasons to be long USD vs EUR (and others). As you say you make a bet and you stick with it, unless something important changes of course. Luckily the FX cycles are really long.
    Relating to the 2nd food for thought technically the USD always looked great, I bought it at the low of the bull flag since March and had exited if I saw it break decisively below the flag. So really great risk/reward in my view and not a way to loose capital in the long run.

    1. AlexP

      yeap, Johan, cycles are long indeed.
      Yes, also, one should stick to what the market tells him to be right (not what he thinks) but something important did happen, Johan: jobs report in OCT which switched both stocks and USD.
      That sub-150k notch was waaaaay toooo low and PRICE ACTION TOO CONVINCING (in my opinion at least) to keep yourself on the LONG-USD side of the trade πŸ™ and also for the wrong reason (expect SUD to act as safe-haven in a deflation-rotten world economy) πŸ™
      Well, now USD is growing but for another fundamental reason (if we consider fundamentals to judge recent price action): IT IS NOT DEFLATIONARY AT ALL!

      It’s just that….to me it seemed that you fell in love too much with that LONG-USD trade, you grew fond of it and it is that observation (=personal opinion, which can be 100% wrong – the important thing is FOR YOU TO BE HONEST WITH YOURSELF, not what I say), it that observation/opinion that I wanted to heed to you since you opened yourself to me and I thank you for that; it is a compliment.

      1. Johan

        Hi Alex,

        I don’t agree that this is not deflationary, the strong USD is definitely deflationary, and it is the basis for deflationary trades in many other places, like commodities for instance. A strong USD is deflationary to the world! And this could get REAL deflationary.

        1. AlexP

          it’s a different causality, Johan.
          Now USD is not growing because of deflation fears due to an incoming financial ordeal (as I understood you underlined your USD-LONG trade) but the dollar is growing BECAUSE OF INFLATIONARY FEARS on the back of a rebound in US labor market which raises the prospect of inflationary spiraling as the economy heats (good employees becomes scarce –> salaries grow –> inflation goes up –> higher demand for goods and services –> higher demand for resources to fill that demand –> employees even more scarce –> salaries grow further etc)
          And such labor-generated (not financial-meltdown-inflicted) inflationary fears increase the probability of a FED rate hike –> higher interest rates for USD –> USD growing.

          So .. it’s a different footing for this USD bull then the one you have been calling πŸ˜‰

          1. Johan

            Hi Alex, what I am saying goes beyond today’s report, we have a deflationary problem in the world today, it is only natural with the amount of borrowings that have been built over time, we are facing debt deleveraging in giant scale. In that environment money historically flows towards the reserve currency, ie USD. The stronger the USD gets the stronger the deflationary problem of the world as most debt is USD denominated. And so it continues for a while…

  15. Braden


    As a long term investor not concerned whether GDX goes down another 10-20%, would you be long here for a 3-5 year hold?


    1. Gary Post author

      Well I would wait a bit until it looked like the intermediate cycle has bottomed first before starting to buy again.

  16. Johan


    another thing, you said wait for the report to place your trade. So would you want to buy usd for instance here then? I mean there is no way to get reasonable risk/reward after reports the way I see it. You see what I mean? You have to place your bets before important reports in my view. And again commonly the charts predict the reports, or at least the interpretation of reports.

    1. AlexP

      it’s simply that I do not trade miners and FX, Johan πŸ™‚ just stocks and some gold/bonds etfs rarely.
      I lost money both on junior miners, energy and FX trading (FX particularly is hugely leveraged and I hate that – I feel uneasy in that environment and I lose money there πŸ™ not for me)

      1. Tushar

        And I meant to say that no matter what my enthusiasm is, price ultimately dictates and puts me where I belong, on earth.

    1. Gary Post author

      I haven’t seen really much in the way of middle of the night attacks during this drop.

      If I see the attacks start up again I’ll say so, but so far this doesn’t look like other periods where gold was clearly manipulated lower.

      1. AlexP

        yeap, well done, even if you’ve marked a loss there, it is a reasonable loss.
        FB was developing a rising wedge anyway …. it’s the leader of all leaders and it’s leading the daily cycle decline.

        SPX sits in amazement on the apex of its intraday symmetrical triangle –> that’s a sign that that the NATURAL REACTION I was telling to Chris above is coming to an end.
        NASDAQ also printed an upward triangle which …. seems ready to collapse on its rising trendline … BEAR BEAR

          1. AlexP

            WELL DONE!
            You’re braver than I am πŸ™‚ actually the BIG fault of my trading system is its small frequency. It has high reliability, good average reward/risk ratio, effective position sizing algorithm, I do take losses quickly buuut …. I am not courageous, I search for high-probability entries and that kills the FREQUENCY parameter of my trading plan πŸ™

            Good night, David, and to you, Gary, and All! This trading session watching is off for me, putting my computer to rest.

  17. ted glum

    Fairplay to admitting you have been wrong. Maybe in the future you should avoid:

    “….I’m the only one who has called an end to the bear market..”
    “….. those foolish bears…”

    Just a few from the last few months

  18. AlexP

    Couldn’t help it to reopen my computer and just to take another look.
    It may be indeed I have been wrong calling for a deeper dive in this daily cycle ….FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY MONTHS I SEE TODAY SECTORS ALIGNING IN ONE DIRECTION:
    – utilities DOWWN BIG
    – financials up (diverging from SPX)
    – RUT up
    – transports up
    – consumer staples DOWWWN
    – discretionary good up.

    Chris, Gary, you have been right. I’m starting to believe I have been a monkey –> I AM BUYING!

  19. Stefan

    Initially I thought you called me a monkey Chris, however you are a clever guy +1. I fully support this view:

    “Maybe the day gold bottom is the day FED raises rates. And that could be months away. Gold has been dropping since such low rates. Maybe there will be panicked on the day of raising rates, gold drop then reversed? Sell the rumour buy the fact?”

    I’ve been kicked out of forums for stating that the Gold bear has years left before he goes to sleep. The truth is hidden in the gold chart, not many knows that, blaming manipulation etc. when it’s just a natural pattern.

  20. AlexP

    I am in with 14% stock rest in cash.
    it is likely that we have a DCL today –> the bullish alignment of sectors is ABSOLUTELY incredible !!!

    1. AlexP

      29.7% stock exposure, rest cash.
      I’m stopping here. I will see about the rest as to how things develop next week but I can’t help it πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ I HAVE BEEN WAITING TO SEE THIS THROUGH ALL THIS FRESH BULL AND IT’S BEEN JUST TODAY THAT I SAW IT —> PERFECT, CRYSTAL-CLEAR BULLISH ALIGNMENT OF ALL SECTORS!

      That’s what I like in trading: everything can change in a FLSH if Lady Market whispers differently, changes tone or anything alike πŸ™‚
      Going to sleep now.

  21. Carl Olsson

    Damn straight Gary. This jobs report will make the market believe in a rate hike though. Belief is strong, even if it has nothing to do with what the Fed actually said on Capitol Hill.

  22. David Silver

    Mad at hell with myself for not locking in profits on crude Wednesday let alone Thursday. Going to set a limit sell for now on per Alex’s rule of thumb.

    In the meantime short crude as of Friday.

    Its going to be one tough weekend for me.

      1. David Silver

        Thanks William, patience isn’t my strongest trait which in turn makes me a volatile trader and poker player (lol). I wouldn’t even call myself an investor more of a speculator. I learned my lesson holding JDSU too long when the dot com burst and 9/11 went for the jugular.

        Lesson 101: Take quick profits quickly like that in FB.

        Have a fantastic weekend my brother and and as Mr. Savage says wait for the swing low in gold. I’ve felt for a year now a bottom could be at 1025.25. US Dollar will trump crude unfortunately too which crushed my dreams this week! From rags to riches to rags.

  23. William


    This study of historical Fed. fund rate hike in 11 periods since 1971 shows that gold rallied in 6 of those periods an average gain of 61% while another 5 period was met with an average loss of 13.9%. The difference here is that in the 5 period with loss, all of them happened when gold price was near its peak after a period of extended rally.

    Fast forward to today, we are definitely not in an extended rally period and therefore, a rate hike from December seems to be rather positive for gold, if this historical study is of any value at all!!!


    The rationale of a positive gold is rather simple as the rate hike period would be negative for stocks & bonds. And, therefore, the relative attractiveness in gold…

  24. chris

    Wrong. The first few rate hikes are good for stocks. And what makes you think FED is definitely raising rates next month. I assumed you are suggesting gold is a good buy at current levels. What if they take 6 mths to start the raise? So if you are betting on rates up, gold up, then wait til the first rate raise.

    1. William

      I would assume this historical study is of some value and gold could finally capitulate ONLY WITH a fed. fund’s hike starting in December…that’s what i think. Am not suggesting anyone to go and buy here….it’s just a sharing of what i read, folks…

  25. chris

    Mike, nothing , absolutely nothing on the gold charts is saying that a bottom is near. Not on 15 min, 60 min, or 600 min, or 6000 min. Lol. Buying here is like guessing. Go look at previous darling, UNG. So many people went broke trying to pick a bottom.

    Regarding gold, ever wonder why with so much money printing, negative rates, yet it can’t rally? I tell you why with this logic. If something supposed to go down doesn’t go down, it will go up. If something suppose to go up doesn’t, it goes down. Trust me on this. Be a stupid man. Stupidity can make money

    1. mike trike

      chris. Don’t worry I won’t go broke. I bought 2017 AG options. Doesn’t matter anyways, my miners were up today on average, meaning I am more wealthy today than yesterday! Canadian miners don’t care what the US price of gold is! Even Newmont closed up today despite the big price drop in gold. Newmont and Barrick are well off their summer lows even though gold is right at summer lows! I don’t own NEM or ABX by the way.

      When the charts become positive after some techincal breakout or whatever you can start buying! Too bad you didn’t buy Canadian miners the last couple of years. The good ones beat the S&P, NDX whatever, by a large margin. I am sitting on several 2 baggers and a 4 bagger! You can always buy GDX though as it will always be plugging along the bottom. lol.

      Gold is $1450 Canadian and my miners have AISC of $1200 Canadian or less and are making good money. I guess that’s why the stocks keep going up, lol.

      1. chris

        Great job. Ya, if you are a great mining stocks picker, you can win. But most just buy ETFs, so, as long as most of the stocks are in bear market, we can only treat them as in bear market, and curse it like a bear market.

  26. chris

    To preempt those gold bugs, cut the crap on billion suppression. Thanks technicians care about what, not why. Price is king. And if you wise up that all markets are manipulated somehow, you will not fight price behaviour in attempting to pick bottom.

  27. chris

    Oh Mike, you mentioned Canadian miners being up. Sure, if it sticks , stick to it. If your mining stocks are rallying, just look at its price behaviour and stay long. Don’t have to look at gold price. You look at gold because you trade gold. Always look at the price of the thing you are trading.

    EG. Trading airline stocks , looking at crude oil. Don’t bother with that. KISS. Just look at airline stocks.

    1. mike trike

      Chris, I won’t buy any miner operating in the USA until the USD start going down. I don’t know when that will be so I stay away! The Canadian dollar might end up going to $.50 vs USD which again will be positive to Canadian miners!
      PS I don’t own any gold or silver!

  28. Trond

    Fed’s main objective is not to keep up the stockmarket, presently it is to ensure that the general interests and yields stays at manageable levels among the huge debts everywhere.
    So when the yields rose in 2013 Bernanke got a lot of flak from Congress about the pains this was already creating. Here chart of the 30 y bond yields:

    He then temporarily had to retract from his previous taper down QE -remarks. Only when yields subsequently started to fall again did the tapering actually begin.
    Presently on that chart one can see that yields are ‘preparing for a launch’ again similar to 3 years ago. If so, Fed would be politically castigated if they raise in December. Should yields still remain on today’s level they might dare to hike.

  29. Eri

    “The 7 bull market in the dollar is over.”
    Gary, October 15th, USD Index at 94 – Right at the bottom

    Enough said….

  30. chris

    Mike, you and your candanian miners blar blar blar. As long as miners listed in US is still dropping, what kind of bull is it. You pollute the minds of people, in the end, they long gold or long us miners, all gonna lose money unless bear market is over. And from chart, its not

  31. chris

    Mike, you don’t say you think gold has bottom, or gold miners has bottom. Then when they continue to drop, you say you long Canadian miners , and they are doing how great. If you only long Canadian miners, then be specific, and say that you think your Canadian miners is the place to be.

  32. chris

    That’s why I tend to respect Armstrong. People here criticized him. Said he said DOW 30k in 2015. And so he is wrong. Wrong. He said it’s possible, and he essentially said it’s a very bull market. Which is so true.

    Also, before August plunge, he said if Dow closes below certain level , watch out. It plunges. Then he said 1 Oct market bottoms, true again . He also believes dollar going much higher.

    When someone says 3 yrs later what will happen, you don’t only look 3 yrs later, you have to observe his updates and sign posts. He may update on changes on trend trajectory. As long as he is much right, we respect

    1. mike trike

      Martin Armstong , Dec.22, 2011 or 2010 ??? lol

      “There are those still putting out the nonsense that gold will collapse because the economy will turn-around. Do they have any self-respect at all? ”

      “We should see gold at $5000 plus by the end of 2015”


      Quotes from right side of page 4.

      DO NOT make long range forecasts if you don’t believe in them! They are worthless if you constantly change them with updates! Not much of a forecaster lol.

      chris, I know this sector like the back of my hand. I have read all the guru’s and know who the good ones are. Marty is the most over-rated guru out there!

      1. jragusa

        Try making sense of M. Armstrong’s mumbo jumbo today:

        “The Dow will remain in a bullish posture closing 2015 above 15340, which was last year’s low. Only a closing beneath this level would be technically very bearish and warn of a Sling-Shot type move ahead. Otherwise, the timing potentials for a high remain 2016, 2020, and 2022-2024. ”

        So hang on to the Dow. IF it falls below 15340 it would be technically bearish. That’s a 15% move down from here!! So, he would get “technically bearish” after wiping out 15% of portfolio. Some strategy!!

        OTHERWISE (i.e. if Dow does not correct), new highs could POTENTIALLY come in 2016, 2020 AND 2022-2024!!! Duhhh!! Seeing that the Dow is at it’s highs already, if it does not correct, it is SURE to make highs going forward.

        When it comes to predicting a market move, 99% of the times he commits to nothing. If he does, he is usually wrong.

  33. mike trike

    chris, you like charts.
    This is chart from SentimenTrader of HUI


    Ignore it if you like. When the charts turn bullish, all the big gains will have been made.

    One stock I own is gobbling up all the undervalued resource stocks. I am already sitting on a 4 bagger.
    If gold and miners keep going down then this company will buy up resources even cheaper than today!!
    In 5 years this company will have a billion dollar + market cap!! I will then have a 50 bagger or maybe even a 100 bagger! When I sell, the chart will look awesome! Maybe you will buy some from me, lol.

  34. chris

    Lol, na, I will buy US minings, and when it’s really a bull market, you think US would not have a 10 bagger mining stock?

  35. chris

    And I don’t trust your sentiment readings chart. Why bottom pick. I buy only when US minings make an impulse wave up, on the orderly pullback, then I buy.

  36. chris

    Huh, in 5 years tis resource company would have a billion dollar market cap???? Ie, your current Canadian stock is a penny stock. Forget it, I don’t buy penny stocks. Later your company announced an accounting fraud, shares suspended. Lol . Good luck to you!!!

    And what all the big gains are made??? Huh, you never seen a true bull market? You mean your type of bull market only last a month, I expect a true bull to last 5-10 yrs

  37. chris

    Now I caught your pants down Mike. Your Canadian mining is not even a billion market cap. With tis manipulated stock, you wanna con all in this forum into thinking about what bull market.

    You wanna know what is a mining con stock? Go Google Lion Gold, Blumont, from Singapore and you will know.

    1. mike trike

      chris, the guy heading this company has already created two billion dollar + mining companies from nothing!
      Nothing shady about this company at all. I won’t name the company because I don’t want to come across as a pumper of the stock.

      I agree with you that many penny stock mining companies are nothing but scams! I know what the scam companies are and don’t buy them! People who only look at HUI and GDX only see a never ending bear market. Those of us who understand the mining industry are participating in the beginning of a great new bull market and are profiting handsomely!

  38. chris

    Lol, do you know what’s made up of Hui and gdx? They are big good mining companies. And if they are in bear markets, you proclaim its bull market for sector?

    Ok, one day Dow plunges to 1000, theres gonna be a bull matket somewhere still. Eg, my coffin sales have tripled, bcos many people jumped off the buildings. So I made great profits. That I go to forum, and tell the world, this is no bear market. Dude, its charlatan.

    1. mike trike

      chris, the 2 biggest gold mining companies in the world bottomed in September. Beautiful looking inverse head and shoulder patterns forming. You can buy the breakout when all the big gains have been made, lol.

  39. chris

    I am no gold hater and I am no gold bug. I trade price actions. Another crappy arguments of gold bug is that gold priced in other currencies are not in bear market. Huh???!!! If Apple shares are halved, would you say Apple is not in bear market instead. But gold just have to be so special !!! Lol

    1. mike trike

      chris, what you just posted made no sense. One of us is drunk, or maybe both. I own no gold, hence I am not a goldbug. I am just stating facts. Martin Armstong is predicting $5000 gold in 2015 so I am confident my gold mining share are going to go parabolic soon, lol.

      Read right side of page 4, lol.


  40. Chris

    “The 2 biggest blar blar blar bottomed in sept, inverted HS”. Did you noticed that it havent broke neckline. So you are guessing again. When right shoulder fail, er…. maybe double bottom…. eh… before you know it, new lows again. Mike, stop pumping your gold here when even the simplest, cleanest gold futures or etf you dare not even touch with a 10 foot pole.

    ps: I believed Mike you meant ABX.

    1. mike trike

      chris, when it breaks the neckline you should buy. Absolutely

      Right side of page 4

      “If the Dow Jones does the same into June, this will set the stage for the next 4.3 year wave into 2015-2016 where we should see the decoupling of debt and equity so that we will see the stocks take off and public debt decline. Interest rates will rise as they always do in a bull market and it will be the state that collapses like you will think was simply impossible”

      Yup, Marty nailed it again. Interest rates are rising as they always do in a bull market and public debt is declining. LOL.

      To all you Martin Armstrong worshippers. WTF???

      1. Johan

        I don’t understand you.

        What he says in 2011 is absolute correct today; stock market taking off, public debt declining, rates starting to rise, and countries will be defaulting. This it a perfect prediction with regard to what we have seen so far in my view.

        So to you; WTF???

        1. mike trike

          Been a bull market for over 6 years and interest rates have declined to almost negative. Stock markets are not taking off, they are peaking. They took off in 2009. What public debt is declining? Are you for real?
          Marty was correct about the stock market bull, wrong about gold going to $5000 and wrong about public debt declining.
          1 out of 3 ain’t bad!

          “Interest rates will rise as they always do in a bull market ”
          Nice call, Marty, lol.

          1. Johan

            But they do!!:)
            The beginning of an interest rate tightening cycle normally coincide with a bull market in stocks.
            I have been following Armstrong daily for a couple of years. He always said that public debt would start its decline after Oct 1st 2015, so about now. That is also the time he expected stocks to start take off to the upside.

  41. Chris

    lol , Mike, ya you are right about the article. Armstrong said 5000 at 2015. But I am sure between then and now, he has provided timely updates once prices broke down. He often provides accurate levels then when once breached, eg support gives way, the trend changed to bear.

  42. Chris

    Mike, armstrong article should be before 2011. So at early 2011, gold was at 1300. Even though he said 5000, what he meant was a good run. Gold really rallied to 1900 shortly. This, i respect.

  43. Chris

    Mike , you? I also respect. Bcos you picked good winners in Canada. Even though the sector sucks big time.

  44. AlexP

    Hi, Paul. To answer your question above: no, I havent changed my view on gold or on USD.
    It’s just in stocks for 4 specific reasons (just mentioned 1 up there – sectors bullish allignement for stocks).

    For gold I expect:
    – Monday to set a lower low and then to start going up
    – Tuesday swing low
    – sometime btw Friday – Wednesday the other week (i.e. btw EU GDP reps and FOMC minutes) to set its DCH
    – resume its IC decline and shakeout the line drawn by Gary at some 1040.

    If I were a commodities trader, I would NOT trade counter-the-trend –> GOLD IS STILL IN A BEAR MARKET AND IN A CLEAR INTERMEDIATE CYCLE DECLINE.
    Rather I would wait for USD to set its DCL and then to hunt the swing high in gold to set my shorts, but no long in gold !!!
    LONG-GOLD=FOOLS’ GOLD! it is to risky to play counter-trend

  45. AlexP

    …besides postive price action in stocks at the end of the session, I see another strong argument that we had a DCL on Friday in a 28-day DC: there is healthy buying on weakness in stocks!

  46. Trond

    Long here the same miners as Mike..
    Those of Mark O’Dea, an extremely skillful Canadian geologist, manager and venture-capitalist.
    And before, back in 2009 I bought 15k pcs of his Fronteer Gold at 2,50$ a share. Very nice ride till it was acquired by Newmont for 14$ a share 2 years later.
    But gold miners have the common problem of too high costs. Why did they make money in 2001 at 300$/ounce and not now at 1100? And Reuters commodity index is currently at the same level as in 2001, still the commodity producers make money with the same prices as in 2001 but not the gold miners w 3,5x higher. Something is rotten here. it might end quite badly, in fact.

    1. mike trike

      Every gold miner I own is making very good money at today’s gold price. Some of the marginal producers aren’t making money but the good ones are doing fine. Back in 2001 the gold industry was a mess. They were hedging and treading water……then they took off and knowledgeable people made a fortune!

  47. Jorgy

    While it is guaranteed that we will get some form of fiscal (read: tax cuts) stimulus around the 2016 U.S election and more monitary (read: QE) from China, Europe and Japan it’s obvious that the commodity super cycle is over, profits have peaked and the only thing left is for the mania or blowoff phase of the stock and equity bubbles. We play a strange game when we wade into these so called markets. Forward 10-Year returns on stocks and bonds are likely negative, as are gold and silvers forward returns barring a global monitary system reset scenario where bye we anchor gold and to a lesser extent silver as the basis of the system. The reset scenario is a low probability event while secular stagnation with fits and starts seems more likely. In this environment aside from trading in/out of asset classes as a trader the only way to win this game as an investor is not to play. ?

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