64 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY

  1. m

    yet gold was approx. overbought vs 200 wk in 2006 and 2008 but persisted.

    it is oversold but not to any larger degree than the 2013 , 2014 and current yr lows

    1998 was much more oversold vs 200 wk and it took over 5 yrs before its advance started from 1996 highs to the late 2001 turn up

  2. Gary Post author

    I also tend to think the bull market in the dollar is about over. Notice the last bull market retraced about 50% of the decline. This bull has retraced almost 62% of the decline. Since currencies historically all go to their intrinsic value of 0 I really doubt the dollar is going to reverse the overall long term trend to devalue. So I expect a final top soon and then the long term trend towards devaluation should resume.

    1. Herman

      Gary, don’t you think that the dollar should at least have a blow-out fase before the bull is over. It has only be consolidating for most of this year. Likewise for gold, blow-out fase down to be expected?

    2. AlexP

      Gary, the chart you’ve just put is extremely bullish for USX 🙂
      – declining wedge,
      – breakout of the upper trendline of the wedge in Q1 this year as YC#1 was reaching for its YCH,
      – retracement to the multi-decade trendline as YC#1 searched for its YCL and found it on AUG24,
      – consolidation,
      – resumption of the upper trend 🙂

      what’s more bullish then that ?! WE ARE IN A NEW SECULAR BULL MARKET OF THE DOLLAR AND KONDRATIEFF CYCLE AND TREASURIES’ CYCLES SUPPORT THAT ALSO (i.e. in addition to the bullish pic you put up 🙂 )

  3. zkotpen

    Stefan,

    My point exactly. The different waves within the correction can be successfully traded — that’s what I meant by “taking seriously” — seriously enough to warrant putting funds at risk. But if the market is trending strongly at intermediate, daily cycle, or even intra-day degree, I would take those forecasts much more seriously — in terms of risk/reward.

    I still pay attention, however, to long range forecasts, not to trade, but to help figure out the context of the market activity.

  4. elgin

    I just went to Martin Armstrong a world economic conference this past weekend. He says US dollar will go parabolic past 1985 highs so past 1.65…. Not good for gold in short term will bottom in spring and rise to news highs. So 200 mda and cycles an manipulation don’t mean much…. I had to go and find out for myself. He predicted 2011 high in gold and silver to the day. Sorry folks gold is going lower and US dollar higher. I use to look at this blog everyday.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yeah and he also said in 2011 that gold would be over $5000 by 2015. Just like everyone else Martin gets caught up in the trend and gets too bullish or too bearish at tops and bottoms.

      1. JT Marlin

        This is true. All one has to do is read his 2009 Gold to 5000+ report… he wasn’t even close. He has been calling for the “Phase Transition” in the Dow forever now.

  5. MuffinTop

    Should ‘regression to the mean’ even be a topic of conversation at this point? Remember, we’re dealing with Markets that are being manipulated on all sides in order to fulfill a Political Agenda and to keep the facade of a ‘booming economy’ intact — says my rather useless brain ?

  6. Don

    I don’t know how anyone can look at the chart of DXY (dollar) and not conclude it’s eventually going higher.

    1. Gary Post author

      Every market “looks” like it’s going higher when it nears, or is at a top. Hell, gold looked like it was going higher in Sept. 2011.

      That’s why I think these long term regression charts are useful. They indicate when price has gone too far too fast. The dollar has definitely gone too far too fast.

      1. David Silver

        Especially when they are manipulated therefore theoretical technical analysis can be thrown out of the bath water IMO.

    2. JT

      Well, everyone has their biases.

      I’m of the opinion that if/when the Renminbi is added to the IMF SDR this month, the USD is going to take a bit of a hit. Afterwards, since the Chinese desperately want to devalue the Yuan further, I think you’ll see a small rush in the Swiss Franc (which is now directly convertible from Yuan) and Gold, as 1.2 Billion people try to front-run said devaluation.

      So that’s what I’ve been smoking lately.

  7. Super Mario

    Another pathetic selloff attempt in the conventional markets. We won’t get a bubble phase, we’ll just muddle around Japan style for years with mediocre returns. The criminal Fed won’t let it burst with this zero percent interest rate theft.

  8. Jorgy

    It’s really hard to be a gold/silver and miner bull given the current setup in the market. The list of reasons why gold, silver and miners is a mile long, while the list of reasons why the USD should continue higher. Expectations of an FOMC rate hike are baked in the cake, in fact companies in the financial (i.e. banks) have traded higher post FOMC meeting since higher rates mean higher net interest margins and higher profitability. That’s what is priced into the market at this point in time.

    You know what isn’t priced in? A global recession, negative interest rates and the FED being behind the curve (again). Watch the $BKX for signs that the FOMC is bluffing since the banks are going to be crushed with NIRP. It’s kind of funny to me to think the bankers bank is going to have to destroy the banking system (the banks themselves) in order to keep the system alive a little while longer. As we transition into an “Inflation / Currency Devaluation / Geopolitical Uncertainty” environment Hard Assets (Read: Commodities and Materials) will outperform other assets like government bills/notes/bonds and traditional asset classes like equities.

    People forget that GOLD is the #1 asset class per annual return from 2002 to Sept 2015 w/ a 10.6% return. Commodities as measured by the S&P GSCI index is dead last at (-0.6%) over the same time period. That said, commodities had the highest volatility YOY and 23.8% and gold had the forth largest volatility at 17.9% over the same time period.

    P.S. $BKX is “the tell” on lift off or not since they and their profitability will be sacrificed! ?

  9. ted glum

    So what your saying is gold over shot the mean in 2011 at $1900. Isn’t it possible that gold could “undershoot” the mean and fall to $700-800, it works both ways.

  10. Super Mario

    What a mug’s game it is trying to get short the rigged conventional markets, or trying to call a bottom in commodities. Oil plunging again.

  11. JT

    Strange volume in $UUP today. Also read that someone bought (at the ask) 100,000+ November 27th 25.5 Puts for .09

    1. tulip

      David- thats brave of you.
      I trust the trend change is Long term…
      On zero hedge they cover Iraq bring over many tankers of cheap oil..
      Thanks

      1. David Silver

        Tulip,

        King Dollar dictates her over fundamentals besides technical double bottom today held today.

        Miners basing here too correlating with USD topping.

    1. AlexP

      🙂 yes gold was disappointingly good 2day, so to say
      I say good because it showed clear exhaustion and it will SHINE BRIGHT tomorrow above 1100 $/oz.

      On the other hand, for USD and SPX …. tomorrow is going to be a true day of 13 in the month 🙂
      Seat belts on, please! FASTER!

  12. David Silver

    Yen formed a swing low today with the Euro perhaps a day away. Confirmation of a USD top.
    More importantly should bottom commodities hence my current interest with positions.

    1. JT

      Biggest volume in $UUP for the year. The last time volume was near this high was July 2013, as it marked an intermediate top for the USD.

  13. AlexP

    aaah, David, by the way of the 2/3 you mentioned above, pls mind that my forecast for usd=down, spx=down, gold=up earlier this morning at some 3AM NY time, was for the next 2 days, i.e. for the day that just past and for tomorrow NOV13.

    So the ratio may prove to be 3/3 and by a laaarge variance 🙂

    1. AlexP

      again: watch out with that JBLU … last time I told you about the 27.10 and today the stock printed a tombstone doji with the high of 26.88 –> shied away by less that 1%.
      there are maaany maaany other stocks down there which show much lower risk and fantastic reward/risk ratios. JBLU can be a good hand but also a too-risky one

      1. David Silver

        ? Alex.

        I ejected out of JBLU for a quick profit as well as my other stocks to dabble into long commodities at the close across the board.

  14. Stefan

    Ok, it’s late folks. My portfolio going forward:

    10% Bear Nasdaq x15
    10% NUGT
    50% High quality explorers from Yukon/BC/Quebec
    30% cash

    🙂 lets see how it plays out …

    Oh, btw Jordan Roy-Byrne sold all his miners and only has a 6% stake in DUST clearly expecting a breakdown in gold.

  15. Trond

    The authorities are NOT INTERESTED in keeping up the stock market because then money flows away from Treasury Bonds into shares. On the opposite, they’re interested in equities to dip, as long as it is not chaotic, because then funds flows from shares into the important State and municipal financials = bonds + lowers the yields for the indebted state.
    They are strong competitors for the same capital.

    As to gold be a bit careful since it trades at a huge premium to the other commodities. Reuters commodity index CRB is now equal to the 2001 bottom, so if gold should ‘revert to the mean’ it would mean $260 an ounce. I don’t think that will happen, just be bit aware of the theoretical drop -potential.

  16. Hong Bang

    Thanks Gary,

    Alex, Gold may size-way walk through this week. The last time, it spends 8 days size-way & 2 SWINGS….hmnn….

    We have to wait SWING in USD & in Gold before JUMPING IN.

    Interesting time !!!

  17. William

    Just to add on the point of Chinese RMB’s imminent inclusion into the world reserves basket where the decision is to be made by this month. If this happens, i presume every single central bank in the world will need to “rebalance” their foreign reserves holdings, in which case, if i assume again that USD is the biggest holding for everyone, then, the buck should take the greatest hit here…

    Stay tuned..

    1. William

      and, the timing of this event (for RMB’s inclusion) is so interesting now given the respective level of Gold & DXY…

  18. William

    and, by the way, equities have “missed” the crashing period in the past 3 months since August’s flash crash…we are heading higher here into 2016.

  19. chris

    Actually, picking gold bottoms is just a guessing game. And keep trying so will frustrate many. The simplest way is this. If gold is gonna embark on a super bull run to 5000, it is going to be a bull run over a few years. So, you just leave it alone first. Let price dictate, let it rally, in 2-3 months, it will make a series of higher high, higher lows. Then you get involved. Yes you will miss the low, but it’s easier and less frustrating.

    Super rich Li kashing when asked how he became so rich. He replied, he sells too early. He ets others earn the last 10%. This applies to bottom, let the foolish bottom pickers earn the first 10%

  20. ted glum

    I read similar posts about $1100 gold price being unrealistic when gold was around $1500, it couldn’t possibly fall that far. If gold falls below $1000 support then there isn’t much support until $800. I know chartists aren’t very popular here. But you have to ask, whats has been more successful since 2011, chart theory or cycle. I know where i’d put my money….

    “it’s the end of the bear market…..”
    “….no sorry looks like i’m wrong….”
    “….. next february…..no july…….no october….”

    There are analysts out there who made predictions of $800 gold and $9 silver in 2011, they haven’t flinched since. PATIENCE, will save you a lot of money.

  21. Yash

    Gary – You used to talk about 8 yr low a lot. which is 2016 from 2008. it can come early too but it can come later too.

  22. chris

    Ted, very good point. Ya, at $1500, you would have been called an imbecile when you say that gold could reach $1100. Bottom line, chart is showing lower highs and lower low since 2011 . If gold is going $5000, what’s the big deal of buying higher when it clears it longer term higher high levels say like $1300.

    I recalled 2 weeks ago, Armstrong said, gold rally to $1190 ish is just a bounce. Only a daily or weekly close above $1220ish I think would mean a change in trend.

    You don’t have to listen to Armstrong. Just look at chart. Lower high, lower low is down. Once it make a higher high, and then a higher low, then get involved

  23. AlexP

    Gold remarkably resilient to all USX frivolities this morning.

    Stocks on the other hand cannot help following USD here and there.
    SPX can find its DCL at the end of next week as its correlation with USX will turn negative on FOMC minutes report and USX will move up into its new DC next week.
    On the other hand, leading stocks are most likely to diverge from broad market indexes next week (some are already diverging).
    Thus most profitable time to get on board in stocks is later today as shakeouts will occur everywhere and the broad market will distribute significantly

  24. Hong Bang

    USD Index look like to break 100 level.

    Choppy market.

    Gold in day 28 very late but no SWING yet.

    Patience.

    100% in cash

  25. zkotpen

    AlexP

    Actually, gold looks like it would be bouncing higher, if it weren’t for “dollar headwinds”. This is supposed to be a bounce — and it is — a corrective move — likely either a triangle, or a combination or flat in which the B or X wave is a triangle — a running triangle, which yields an “undercut low” as we saw yesterday…

    … as you stated over the weekend, “not tradeable” — or perhaps tradeable on the 3 min and 30 min charts — day trades, waves that I am not trading… at least not yet. Waiting for that better risk/reward setup.

    Happy trading 🙂

    1. AlexP

      Thank you, Z!

      I’m personally confident gold will go above 1100 today –> a fantastic jump right on the DCL day 🙂

      Just bought some new stock in pre-market (NTES) despite the deep decline to come in the broad market these days and especially today.

      Good luck to you too ! 😉

      1. Hong Bang

        You mean swing more than 20 usd because gold trade right now at 1080 .

        Usd seems to put the swing in place.

        Thanks

  26. Super Mario

    Glencore crashing again. I think a lot of you are underestimating just how bad a commodity bear market can get. Remember oil crashed 90%+ during the Great Depression.

  27. Frank

    I thought I was going to be calling the end of Elliott Wave Theory if the SPX made a new high. It looks like we are rolling over into what will be a nasty ride down in wave 3. Like a dummy I rode from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 2. You’re not supposed to do that. Oh, well, maybe you’re not supposed to talk Elliott on a truly technical site? I love your site, Gary. Cool graphics and lots of opinions.

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