91 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY

  1. Gary Post author

    This is the one market where manipulation will always come to the upside. I’ve been playing off that manipulation all year and it’s the reason why we are outperforming the stock market indexes by almost 25%.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes and we are up almost 25% in the stock portfolio. I just wait patiently for a correction and then enter leveraged funds knowing that the Fed will protect us.

  2. David Silver

    Couldn’t echo my thoughts any better Mr. Savage.
    Reversed my miner shorts to long
    Bought BIDU
    Holding crude short
    Holding FB, WTW and ANGI
    GOOG on radar Santa list

  3. Don

    The damm FED is at it again. They are manipulating the US stock market up and nearly every other stock exchange in the world (in sync with the S&P).

  4. Don

    Somebody should write a book on how the FED controls the markets on a day to day basis. It would be a great read. They must have a army of traders working to keep the markets from behaving as they should ( gold and silver should be soaring and the stock market should be crashing…not happening). Maybe someday, one of those traders will become a whistle blower and tell all. It’s strange that has not already happened.

    1. Gary Post author

      They just make money available to banks for almost 0 interest and that money goes into buybacks and big bank trading desks.

      1. Don

        Stock buy backs and zero interest rates do not explain how the FED directly intervenes on a day to day basis, as you have indicated has occurred so many times. I closely watch the major stock markets like the DAX, CAC, FTSE, Nikkei , etc, and they all move in sync with the S&P, right down to the minute. They are definitely coordinated moves. Some may move more or less than others, but turning points are timed perfectly. That could only be possible with the complete cooperation of some very big players.
        I hope someone writes a book on exactly how it’s done. We are nothing more than suckers in a very rigged game.

  5. AlexP

    oh, Gary, that seems too risky for me ๐Ÿ™
    just 20% stocks exposure suffices me.

    planning to go aggressive around JAN08 on ICL – it’s better fewer trades than too risky trades

    1. victor

      I wish I have such patience and MM like you…., btw look how RUBI behave… you’ve been right when out. I’m planning to buy it again on ICL, hopefully around 12$. It’s appeared my close relative working for the company provide software solutions for RUBI, highly recommended… but he’s not a trader, will see…
      Would you recommend go long with biotech on ICL?
      Always waiting for your input Alex. Thank you very much.

  6. Dennis

    Gary, you’ve often talked of the coil pattern followed by the false move in one direction, followed by the longer, more durable move the opposite way. Seems Jan-Aug in stocks was the coil, the Aug dip was the false move down, and this up move could prove to be the more durable and strong move, perhaps ushering in the bubble phase. What do you think?

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s exactly what I think. When the Nasdaq breaks out of that 15 year consolidation it could go a long ways.

  7. David Silver

    USD rolling over signal initated.
    Crude’s tape action is being impacted.
    Switching gears here and going long.
    PS: Congrats Muffin and William on GORO!
    SA is strongest out of peers.

    1. MuffinTop

      Congrats for now.. but if Gold decides to put in one more low before end of year then we could be in for an unpleasant surprise. Let’s see what happens..

  8. Dan

    You’ve been right in the short term, but it’s nice to see everyone bullish again with full confidence in the Fed. Classic behaviour at tops.

    I know everyone is sick of the bear case. But bottom line is the negative divergences over the past 12-18 months still exist. VIX (not VXX, UVXY) has been in an uptrend since July 2014. Each Fed intervention has been less and less powerful since the October 2014 bottom.

    The next spike in volatility will probably shock even the most hardened bears and I will keep approaching it from a low risk standpoint.

    1. MuffinTop

      VIX in an uptrend since July? I don’t think so dude. In fact, it’s been in an intermediate downtrend for the past 3 months after spiking all the way up in late August.. it’s only now starting to gather steam with positive divergence.

      1. Lil' Ricky

        He said July 14, not 15. You could argue a mild uptrend since then, or really even since early Aug. of this year.

        Remember the old market adage: “don’t tell me what, tell me when.” We are topping, but tops form slowly and I’d guess this one is still at least 6 months out. Till then, I’m buying dips.

  9. ted

    Bears getting cute again by not jumping in a bull market. It’s so sad. They are missing one of the most powerful bull markets in history! And I mean that.

  10. james moffett

    Gary, I agree, yet aren’t we overbought on the SPX after this week’s rally and due for a dip? Or are you already fully allocated to stocks?

  11. victor

    Don’t forget election year is coming, injections will continue…, but, hold your pants in yr 2017…

  12. victor

    Gary, please stop moderate my comments, or moderate it in time… it’s already more then 4 hours my first comment awaiting your moderation …

  13. crawford

    Why long till Dec 16 – Just curious on what is suppose to happen?
    This market is going much higher into 2016. The demcratos wants the FED to pop the market higher so that Hillary (puppet) take over Trump.

    IMO – S&P 2700 for 2016

  14. David Silver

    Bullish 15 min ascending triangle formation brewing.
    Wanted to add on the gold dip but my work interfered.
    US stocks consolidating for the next leg up.
    Long FB, BIDU, WTW, ANGI, UWTI, JNUG and NUGT in near equal portions.

  15. David Silver

    Swing low in miners Wednesday.
    Swing lows today in gold, silver, Yen and Euro.
    Swing high today in USD.
    CRB green (rounding third).
    Monumental shiftimg taking shape.

  16. Dennis

    Gary, youโ€™ve often talked of the coil pattern followed by the false move in one direction, followed by the longer, more durable move the opposite way. Seems Jan-Aug in stocks was the coil, the Aug dip was the false move down, and this up move could prove to be the more durable and strong move, perhaps ushering in the bubble phase. What do you think?

    1. MuffinTop

      W — While you were putting together your research, did you happen to notice any ‘niche’ emerging markets out there that are an absolute standout? I read somewhere not long ago that Malaysia, Indonesia and sub-Saharan Africa could be worth a second look.

      1. William

        Hey, Malaysia, unfortunately is a big dead market for now due to political “BS” linked to 1MDB if you know. Other emerging markets (i can only speak for within the Asian context as this is my home ground), my favorite is still China…despite all the negative headlines…

        China – this is a no-brainer i think in regards to RMB’s inclusion into SDR basket. But, more importantly, the gloomy headlines on macro-economy may have been too overdone. Its October industrial output growth and export both edged down. However, import and investment growth rebounded and retail sales growth hit a 10-month high…also, very importantly, credit growth and fiscal spending are looking increasingly strong! So, overall, my sense is that macro data are going to pick up more strongly in coming quarters! I see no reason why SHSZ300 index could not be going

        ASEAN (Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines…etc) – I think these countries are not worth looking at, at all except if Hong could recommend some beggars out of Vietnam market?

        Other than that, Singapore may be an odd one out here. But, given its open economy that is heavily dependent on high-value-added export segment, its economy is vulnerable too. Case in point, REITs sector in Singapore have their industrial REITs trading at 9 – 10% yield, on the premise that global slow down will hit their respective MNCs tenants. I think there are some values to dig from the universe though…

  17. Hong Bang

    Ok David & William, on board with you.

    Usd : Swing high, day 24 in the cycle, so we may at least have 3 – 5 days correction (assuming that usd still in the Up Trend mediem term)

    Gold : Swing low, Keltner Band indicates the rally minimum touch 1116.

    Oil : No clear direction, i dicide to sit in the sideline for oil until clearer orientation.

    Happy Trading

  18. William

    Just noticed that put-to-call ratio for GDX & GDXJ has gone to 0.3 & 0.2 respectively from about 0.7 the night before!

  19. Jay

    I must have Gary’s comments on the chart earlier. When market bears start saying things “Fed has your back” and “guarantee” then I think it is time to stay in cash or at least lighten up on stocks. ๐Ÿ™‚ I think the easy money has already been made.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would argue that huge obsene amount sof money are about to be made when the Nasdaq breaks out of that 15 year consolidation.

  20. David Silver

    Miner rally intact confirmation signal: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=DUST
    1062 very well could be the undercut low bottom of bottoms.
    Reasons why:
    Miners this time bottomed before gold did: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24gdm
    Last gold dip in 11/2014 produced a low to a higher low, this time from 7/2015 it went to a lower low hence an undercut low indicative of bottoms: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?%24gold
    Lastly and more importantly the cyclical redundant patterns have now disrupted time cycles meaning we were suppose to carry on for 2 more months of descendence i.e. 1025 min 956 max.
    Could this be the very beginning of Mr. Mark’s 5000 prediction for 2020?
    Mr. Savage’s registered historical oversold readings never seen before may be key.

  21. David Silver

    FWIW:http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2015/11/19/Falling-Crude-Oil-Prices-More-Than-Meets-the-Eye.aspx#axzz3rzlz1Ckf
    Elliottwave boys have called a bottom in crude:
    Today was a strange narrow trading for crude and it was indicative in her tape action which illustrated possible accumulation activity as seen beforebfrom my historical observations: http://m.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-streaming-chartLast four trading days exhibited bullish inverse candlestick wicks: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24wtic

  22. David Silver

    1062 very well could be the undercut low bottom of bottoms.
    Reasons why:
    Miners this time bottomed before gold did
    Last gold dip in 11/2014 produced a low to a higher low, this time from 7/2015 it went to a lower low hence an undercut low indicative of bottoms
    Lastly and more importantly the cyclical redundant patterns have now disrupted time cycles meaning we were suppose to carry on for 2 more months of descendence i.e. 1025 min 956 max.
    Could this be the very beginning of Mr. Markโ€™s 5000 prediction for 2020?
    Mr. Savageโ€™s registered historical oversold readings never seen before may be key.

  23. David Silver

    Elliottwave boys have called a bottom in crude:
    Today was a strange narrow trading for crude and it was indicative in her tape action which illustrated possible accumulation activity as seen before from my historical observation
    Last four trading days exhibited bullish inverse candlestick wicks.

    1. AlexP

      it is most likely so, Herman!
      Pieces of evidence:
      – Draghi delivered some very, very dovish words today !!! –> gasoline for USD bubble
      – USX HAS JUST PRODUCED A SWING LOW (unless proven wrong next week by a lower low, but it is less likely considering the circumstances)…several minutes ago.
      – miners via GDX sniffed the USX power and now they are charting A KEY REVERSAL DAY on GDX.

      whatsoever, I am a fearful investor, always looking behind my shoulder even if I may lose profitable trades or if I cut losing trades quickly if something changes in the broad indexes or with a stock’s price action[or rather lack of action to some strong fundamental data].
      This is why I recommend going long on USD only after we have the 99% evidence that WE ARE IN THE 2ND DAILY CYCLE OF USD: I.E. USX HITTING THE 100-NOTCH

      1. AlexP

        …it appears that even for an asset its bubble phase like USX now, it is difficult for USX to break into new high ground for this intermediary cycle at 100.
        But it would be even better for that to occur on Monday because we would have a follow-through day while still being quite early in the new daily cycle when taking position, i.e. on merely day 2.

        1. Herman

          I think USX not being able to put in a decent DCL is a sign of great strength, so I would not immediatelly expect it to break 100. BTW, gold is also deteriorating rapidly, not to mention siver…

          1. AlexP

            absolutely, Herman! if USX proves beyond doubt that it is in a new DC by moving at 100 while leaving behind a DCL yesterday, then … LONG USD WILL BE THE SAFEST PLAY TO TRADE IN TOWN (alongside short gold ;;) )

  24. ted

    Okay Bears, give up yet?! If not, please call a therapist soon. I hate to be so blunt about this, but you are missing one of the biggest bull markets of all time!!!

      1. David Silver

        Crude long signal (bought another tranche).
        Sorry had to scratch the short miner play to fund the crude since lmited from GOOG purchase.
        Never been good at trading metals.
        Stick with crude from now on.

      2. AlexP

        that short metals is risky now; there is still a decent probability for USX to continue its DC into early next week and put the DCL below 98.5 …. we cannot know that for sure (by sure I mean 99% probability) until USX moves at 100.
        In other words, going long USX or short metals NOW = jumping the gun, ACTING ON FORECAST INSTEAD OF ACTING ON PRICE-ACTION-DRIVEN MOMENTUM

  25. AlexP

    sold earlier today my medical-company stock on a decent profit (but below expectation).

    Thus I am 100% cash waiting for the USX’ DCL confirmation or for its extension into next Tuesday (though less likely) to take up “safe”, high reward/risk probability positions in UUP and DZZ – I hate leverage and volatility so, I prefer these etf avenues ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. AlexP

      it is interesting to notice that the key reversal day in GDX came on very low volume … is that selling coming only from retailers following solely USX the other way while smart money are thinking differently: namely that USX may be in its day 26 and DCL has yet to come next week (while GDX and gold to move higher above 14.25 and 1100) ?!

      lack of volume on GDX’s fall makes a good reason NOT to short metals or to long USX just yet …

  26. Bud fox

    Just like I said. GDX is guilty until proven innocent.
    All of yesterdays’ gains are gone and then some.

    1. MuffinTop

      Interestingly enough.. I rode CAF all the way up to $38 this June and then my ‘trailing stop’ pulled me out when things started going South. I am now looking to get back in and so should everyone else..
      China is the world’s second largest economy and they are holding a lot more Gold then they’ve led on; that could very well be the catalyst we are all patiently waiting for ๐Ÿ™‚

  27. David Silver

    Sold GOOG (got in too late, my bad) repositioned back for third and final tranche in crude long.

      1. David Silver

        No sir but gonna take a look at her since I had a terrible trading week overall!.
        Shanghai surprise in store.

  28. AlexP

    …so has gone another day up in stocks on below-average volume across indexes while the down days in the prior daily cycle decline last week enjoyed significant volumes…this volume-price divergence inbroad indexes underscore heavily my thesis drawn last Sunday that we are on a dead-cat bounce, on a minor trend

      1. David Silver

        William what’s your take on crude’s action today? It ramped up then sold off just to flatline. Options expiration? It through me for a loop and I can’t be by my screen every second due to work. Charts now all look bearish on energy. One thing working out for me is that lately whether miners or crude, the opposite usually happens?.
        Still long FB, BIDU, WTW and ANGI.
        Sold GOOG and all miners.
        Long crude but may sell her at the open on a MM pop then short her. I hate this game.

        1. William

          General equities are the way to go for the last ride in these last 30 trading days of the year. I still think precious metals are looking to bottom soon. No strong view on crude I’m afraid…

          Lastly, try not to over-trade, am sure you know what I mean…:o)

  29. chris

    The bears are the greatest joke. We are in the sweetest of sweetest spot of seasonality. Go research on stock market during Thanksgiving week. 2/3 of the time, its up. And post thanksgiving? Even more rallies to come. Again, its 2/3 of the time. Why fight this odds?

  30. zkotpen

    BULLISH on gold/GDX for next week.

    Miners: Hit a 62% retrace of the Wed/Thu move up. If you’re good, you could have played the DUST-NUGT-DUST trade — then, based on Monday’s action, probably load up some more NUGT (though the more bearish scenario is still in play.

    Gold: Like GDX, gold could have put in a DCH on Friday — but I don’t think so. I think it will bounce off the lower trendline (from Wednesday’s pre-market low) — around the 1073-74 area, then move back up to ~1100 area for the Thanksgiving mini-rally.

    I think gold is in an ending diagonal up, and GDX is in a zig zag up.

  31. chris

    Another interesting stats for bears to ponder. Since 1875, market has never had a down year for mid decade, those years ending with 5. This year is 2015.

  32. chris

    Regarding gold, I think a good chance of a big bounce is coming. Cot shorts have plunged tremendously recently. These usually have bullish implications

  33. AlexP

    ๐Ÿ™‚ SPX can close the year above 2020, mark 2015 an up-year, and then correct less than -4% to about 1950 in the first week or 2 weeks of 2016 without a problem before sarting the real growth that people have hurried up to anticipate.

    what gold does is not up to the gold.
    with USX in a confirmed bubble, gold can cast bullish signals on all world’s known technical setups (cycles, sentiment, oscilators, trendlines, MAs, candles, envelopes, volume) and still be dragged further down by the USX BULL just like a lamb into the woods by a pack of hungry wolves.

    But, USX is NOT yet in a confirmed bubble. As I mentioned above, to do that USX will have to produce another green marubozu on Monday above the 100-notch !
    USX still can invalidate yesterday’s swing low and continue its daily cycle into a DCL on Tusday/Wednesday and then, yes, gold will shine above 1100.

  34. Hong Bang

    Thanks Alex !

    The COT in Gold may stay DOWN for many weeks before we running out of Bull.

    I think the USD will break 100 but not yet. Decemberwill be the optimum time For USD to go through 100 in the second half of the month.

    See you !

  35. chris

    Spx starts the year at 2075 ish I believe, so, I am not gonna play God. I ride tis uptrend til hourly breaks certain level, or it makes lower low. Tis week market has a highest weekly rally in a year despite the it should crash reasoning … Paris attack. All these means a bull market. Next week is holiday shortening week plus month end.

    I pity those who missed the run since last week. A few here have kept saying its gonna rally but bears kept arguing that it’s a bubble. If you fight the bubble in 1999-2000 you were a fool.

    Dun forget another bullish setup, Inverted HS in spx, Dow, NASDAQ. Once neckline clears and stays above it, this bull will run away from you.

  36. AlexP

    next week SPX will grow too as Transports will shakeout their 200dma and Discretionaries make new high.
    Transports Index has already delivered a bearish divergence with its MFI and will produce a second one next week.
    Discretionaries will also have their share of printing a bearish divergence.

    This goes in line with my 2104-cap for SPX during this daily cycle which I stated here on last Sunday for the first time.

    PS: it is risk-management-wise to avoid protentially profitable trades when you know that the market is already in intermediate decline and as the market constantly underscores this thesis, day after day

  37. David Silver

    Alex enlighten me:
    I’m going back to old school charting.
    Only bearish omen I see as far as the US markets is perhaps Friday’s daily candle on the INDU exhibiting a double November top that could restrain the US Indices as a whole.
    All other indices look bullish.
    USD is bullish.
    Crude is bearish (don’t understand my logic Friday)
    Gold is bearish.
    Back to basics for me starting Monday and not relyibg on all the talking heads that create noise and confusion for me.

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