Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
First!
🙂
Idiot
Gary,
from what I see and read it seems that you are saying that Gold and the Stock market could go higher together……
Am I wrong saying that,if this would occur,the DEVASTATED Miners would be the best investment BY FAR?
I really hope you will be right Gary….but it seems like a dream at the moment.
Regarding the consolidation, I can’t see this LONG and DEEP bear market as a “correction” in a bull market…..even the last REAL correction in a gold bull market was much less intense (during the 60-70’s bull market) and long in duration than this.
I don’t really know how to define it……..it seems like a secular bear market to me.
I really hope to be dead wrong of course!
Correct, I think everything goes up together driven by the catastrophic central bank mistakes of printing too much money. Sooner or later the consequences of these insane policies have to come home to roost.
Do the same chart with silver, Gary. 31 year consolidation from peaks in 1980 to 2011 and then crashes 70%.
Why won’t Nasdaq do the same as silver?
Silver just follows gold. Gold formed a C-wave top and then took silver down with it. But I expect when gold breaks out of the consolidation silver will also break out of the 35 year consolidation and that will be truly something to see.
…so no rebound and crash to 1000-ish.
What if commoditie are not cyclical like stocks and they never bounce back? What if the commodity boom generated by China was an artificial one-time deviation from the norm? What if the natural movement for commodities’ price is flat/down over time as efficiencies and scale start working.
The broad commodity indexwas flat until the 1970s when gold standard was removed and it broke out into what turned out to be a range-bound area for the next 40 years until it broke out again and went parabolic in the early 2000’s. We all know now this was bc of the Chinese infrastructure boom.
But what if that one time event is done? And now we go back to earlier range?
I get that gold is valued differently from broad commodities but you can’t deny that overall weakness won’t hold gold back.
Commodities are very cyclical. Low prices are the cure for low prices. You can already see the energy markets setting the stage for the next boom phase as rig counts have collapsed. In the not too distant future we will again have a supply problem.
And also don’t forget the trillions and trillions of currency units that have been printed. Try as they might central banks aren’t going to be able to keep all of that liquidity out of the commodity markets forever.
This could be a (frightening) credible scenario.
But what about the PM stocks? They ARE cyclical even more than common stocks,would they stay at these ridicolous extremely low level for years?
Anyway ,my greatest fear is that this time could really be different and that there won’t be a resumpion of the gold bull market.
We could be in a secular gold bear market,I know that there are great analysts like Mr. Savage or Martin Armstrong who think this is a major correction in a bull market,what can I say…..I really hope they are TOTALLY right!
worst bear market ever (from 1920 until now) with demand for gold at all time highs… this is the stock market…buy facebook with 200.000.000 fake accounts and sell miners.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=W&st=1980-11-21&en=%28today%29&id=p71815852918
Also I totally agree that sooner or later these policies will come back to bite us. But that could take years or even decades, especially when just about every other country on the planet is making the same mistake (s).
Also there’s no reason to believe these policies will necessarily result in a cataclysmic scenario. More than likely interest burden and Malinvestment will just be a drag on growth, rather than a hyperinflationary collapse
That’s what everyone thought about the housing markets also. As we moved into the bubble phase everyone just began to assume that this was the new normal and that it would last indefinitely. It lasted longer than many thought, but it did eventually unravel.
Mr. Savage.
What is your take on crude and energy ar the moment?
TIA
It appears that oil is in a left translated cycle that still has about 15 -20 days before it bottoms. So I’m assuming it’s probably going to test the 09 bottom at $34.
What a load of hog wash.
Looking at the 20 year Gold chart, the consolidation since 2011 looks like it needs more to go. 2016 may be the bottom year but not until middle or end of the year. I’m curious who here thinks the bottom won’t be violent? We haven’t come close to any since the consolidation began. The 20 year gold chart is really a thing of beauty. A smooth left cup pattern. It will get very exciting to see the right side build in the years to come. But for that to happen, we need some wild bottom $ swings. If the violence can get to $850-950, what more could any of us ask for? Silver will probably be at $9-$11. I’m drooling just thinking about it! Would be awesome….
Hi Gary I remember you said gold and miners will rise next week.
I am looking for gold to bounce out of a daily cycle low. It looked like it was on track until Friday. Now it’s up in the air as to whether the cycle has bottomed or not.
Monday will likely be a key day. If the bears drive gold back below 1071 then they can negate the potential bear trap that was forming and continue beating it down.
Even Gary now is “bearish”, with COT go crazy to the downside not counting the period from wesnesday so… I’m in the Bull camp. Still 100% in Cash & will start buying next week gradually.
Thanks Gary for your sharing insight TA & cycle analysis. Really appreciate your Job.
Thanks
Seems like he used to be so bearish on equities during the first few years of the bull market, and now so bullish near the top…am I mistaken?
I always get bearish when it gets late in an intermediate cycle, and I get bullish once an intermediate cycle bottoms. The intermedaite cycle bottomed back in Aug.
I also get bullish when I see evidence of central banks propping up stock markets with endless QE and 0% interest rates. I don’t want to fight the printing presses.
I talk about Gold
in Equity, i stay Bullish !!! No where to hire money. as simple like that.
Not gonna fight the printing presses, but when former perma-bears are now bullish on equities, then it is time to lighten up on equities substantially. 🙂
I’ve been bullish on stocks for quite a few years. You really need to look at actual sentiment numbers rather than try to guess by one persons bias.
The actual intermediate score for the stock market is 58% bulls. Basically dead neutral. It’s been as high as 80% before the intermediate cycle tops.
Gold on the other hand was 17% bulls this week. So while stocks aren’t in danger of running out of buyers here, gold is in danger of running out of sellers soon.
When cot was so bearish weeks ago, I traded out my longs. Now cot is so bullish, I can’t fight the odds, I will slowly add into gold. Just for a trade see how it works.
Stocks? Price wise, there is zero evidence of weakness. So please leave your brains at the door. Just ride it upwards. It’s foolish the catch the top. Cos you could only do it once. Then you are going to miss the 90% continued upside.
Riding the trend will guarantee you never sell at the top. But you participate on uptrend til God knows how high.
We still got years in this bear. Interesting thought by Carlos, maybe the secular bull was broken 2011?
However bcos of the financial distress in the system, gold has a different pulse. We do not have to wait another 22years for the new bull. Looking at Gary’s chart he is too early predicting the new bull.
A bear rally is imminent imho
I don’t know if the secular bull broke in 2011, but the fact that gold went from $300 to $1,900 in 10 years is quite a boom. A big breather was due.
I agree as well that the consolidation period is still looking for a bottom. If we don’t find a bottom in 2016, my bet is, we will find one in 2017. I just want to see some crazy volatility first.
One thing I do stress on is how nice the 20 year gold chart looks. It’s a relatively smooth chart. It’s not sloppy like Silver. If this consolidation forms a cup-with-handle type pattern, the break out will be huge. We’ll just have to see.
Bearish inverse candlestick wick Friday similar to rhe FED minutes day earlier this month. Identical to Crude’s too of Friday!
Think the Doc called both correct here as well.
Funny how the Elliott boys are opposite.
And Mr. Savage is bearish moreso on oil.
My old school charting days down for both.
Oil was a bull trap ready to fail.
Gold is in the process of a bull trap.
Safe to say stay long in US stocks.
Going to trim down on my stock longs and use added proceeds and. reverse crude on Monday’s open.
Going to avoid metals and miners on either side for awhile.
You seem being a fan of DOC David.
Gary made also many good calls.
Yes both are sensational Hong but Doc has taken the starting position in the 4th quarter of this game.
The Australian stock market peaked in 2007 and has yet to regain its old highs. Do you think this market is similar to the NASDAQ that when it finally makes a new high it could have an amazing rally beyond say 10,000 points?