SMT portfolio update

So far this year:

Stock portfolio  +24.2%

Metals portfolio +15.6%

Energy portfolio -3.4% 🙁 I’m working on getting this one back in the green and feel good that we will by the end of the year. 

Currencies +2.8% I’m done trading currencies for the forseeable future. The currency wars are heating up again and the markets are too erratic for me. 

Quest portfolio +40% 🙁 I was hoping to have this one much higher but we’ve been forced into trading only the stock market and it’s hard to make big gains fast in stocks as they just don’t produce the big percentage moves like miners and energy.

45 thoughts on “SMT portfolio update

    1. Jay


      I agree, but even it’s true, he is only talking about THIS YEAR’S performance. He has shut down old ports in the past when they went south. In reality, traders can’t just reset underwater ports. I would bet a gazillion burritos that he will underperform a plain old S & P index over time. Just sayin’

    1. Gary Post author

      Last year we were down a little bit in both energy and metals (but still way less than gold or oil) and we handily outperformed the S&P with a +14% gain.

  1. chris

    David, what BS?. Subscribers could verify. If you never subscribe, never follow, don’t doubt. Gary has been calling miners bounces quite well based on cycles. So even though it’s always a bear rally, he could have sold into those rallies.

    For those that just buy and hold, too bad for ya.

    1. Gary Post author

      Correct we sold early when the metals reversed on the FOMC statement and are just now buying back.

  2. Gary Post author

    The TSI index on gold is at -87.5. The lowest reading recorded was -90. A cycle low is coming soon, and I expect it will also be an intermediate degree cycle low. Panic is starting to set in. Exactly what we always see at major intermediate cycle bottoms.

  3. Dave

    So, you told your sub to sell while posting on the free site to buy. Talking about playing both side.

    1. Gary Post author

      Jeez every post for the last week I’ve been saying to be patient and wait for a swing before buying. Are you not able to read english?

  4. chris

    When I did not pay, I do not expect full picture or timely picture. Maybe he is a bull, but decided to take partial profits at higher levels to reduce risk.

  5. chris

    Exactly, Gary also said gold could pullback to 61.8% retracement. He could provide free big pictures, but if you are not skillful, and want timely detailed strategy, you got to pay.

  6. chris

    But Gary, I think if you are lucky, you get a bounce in gold. But if not so lucky, watch out. Bcos when looking at DGLD, it seems like building an energy for a massive breakout. I don’t know man. Will only consider gold when it’s 5dma turns up.

    1. Gary Post author

      When the TSI is at -87.5 I want to be a buyer not a seller. When everyone is panicking and selling at any price I want to be buying what they are selling. When gold is 38 days into a daily cycle I want to be buying not selling. When gold has dropped 14 of the last 16 days I want to be buying not selling.

      No I probably won’t time a perfect entry, but I think I’ll get “close enough”.

  7. David Silver

    Believe it or not:

    2014: Buy and hold stocks produced me +33.4%.
    2015: Swing trading stocks and leveraged ETF’s.
    GREAT month for me +34.7% primarily due to trading crude successfully (metals and stocks not so bad) but my forte is crude since I’ve been following it daily since 12/7/14 and know the nuances of her.

    I finally eclipsed my “dot com hey day” peak of 1998 to 2001  a tad over +1000% to my current Friday close of +1115.3% (from 2/7/14) for a fiscal 2015 monthly to +764.5%.(2015 year thus far).

    Believe it or not.

    1. Jonathan

      So 835% so far this year! Let me guess, this kind of performance can’t be reached without options.

  8. Bill

    A question that begs for an answer, if rates are being raised as per the FED noise in December why isn’t everyone piling into TBT or even speaking about it?

    Of course I already know the answer, its BS that’s why, this was nothing more than another coordinated effort to pound metals and the Bullion banks were all in on it. Of course as I stated they clearly over played their hand and that blatantly obvious.

  9. ted

    You know what. Buy and hold stocks for the last 7 years has beaten every newsletter, including Gary’s. No transaction fees. No stress. No time.

    1. Jay

      I agree. Buy and hold of the S & P will easily beat Gary and other newsletter writers over the long haul. Maybe if they could get lucky for a year or two, but over the long haul a plain old S & P index will win.

      1. Gary Post author

        That’s easy to say when you have the benefit of hindsight but in real time none of you held through the crash in 2010 and the crash in 2011. And no one held throught he crash last year and this year. And none of you held through the runaway move in 2013.

        I have no idea why people think that they could have actually traded the markets perfectly in real time. If they could have done it, they would have.

  10. james moffett

    Gary, nice results.
    What is your take on the stock market near term after this massive rally. Close to a daily cycle decline?

  11. ted

    Easy prediction: if the market backs off a tad here, you want to buy before the gap. Because the gap wont be filled on the next run! Trust me on this.

  12. David Silver

    Mr. Savage IMO is the most premiere market timer out there and I attribute my success in 2015 because of his enlightenment.

  13. David

    Go back and reread his past 36 months of post. He’s been wrong more times than right in regards to Gold, energy and the miners. Most of the folks i use to read on here have all left because they were all taken to the cleaners.

    1. David Silver

      In the end you have to blame the pilot for mismanagement.

      Don’t hate the player, hate the game.

        1. Gary Post author

          If you didn’t call it in real time then it didn’t happen.

          Sorry but no one is going to believe these hindsight trades.

  14. David

    You can always find a chart or indicator to support your theory. The question is what happens if you are wrong.

  15. AlexP

    I am still 100% in cash.
    There are 2 scenarios for stocks in the most likely situation that a sub-200k number is published tomorrow:
    – less likely = today upward trendline has been broken and the DCL came on day 27
    – most likely = DC decline to continue tomorrow through Wednesday/Thursday –> after the ADP report yesterday the market has already discounted a sub-200k notch so that now the market is overbought and complaiscent.

    I will see tomorrow which of the 2 will be produced based on price action. In order to validate the former scenario 2 things would have to occur tomorrow:
    – swing low and
    – in the 2nd part of the session SPX to move higher.
    But that’s less likely to happen, I go for the the latter scenario –> LADY MARKET HAS ALREADY DISCOUNTED THE SUB-200k FIGURE

    1. ted

      Or the market just keeps going up.

      It doesn’t make sense to wait for corrections anymore. None whatsoever.

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