50 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. AlexP

    yes, indeed, gold is getting ripe to be bought but personally I think it would be jumping the gun to do it right know, especially with ECB’s big gun in close sight – merely 2 days away.

    Stocks are in very poor shape but the final part of the dead cat bounce, which I have preaching stocks to embark on since Sunday NOV15 (with SPX to be capped at 2104), is about to start.

    Consumer Discrationaries (the tip of the spear) via etf XLY are showing extreme weakness but they will deliver one more jump to produce a bull trap and DOUBLE bearish divergences with oscilaltors by the end of this week or next Monday the latest.

    1. AlexP

      …LNKD will be great for shorting soon ๐Ÿ™‚ down to $221 as it will draw a handle to its cup into SPX’ ICL arround JAN8

  2. Dan

    Only sure thing seems to be counting on these criminals to keep markets near ATH and preventing honest price discovery and a deflationary cleansing. Metals? What a crap shoot.

      1. AlexP

        divergences are useless in trending markets; this is not the case of stocks, not even for consumer discretionaries, as this December ushers.

        after all, if I had relied my analysis solely on divergences, I would not have entered long USX and short gold on Monday last week –> gold was screeming with multiple bullish divergences while USX with several bearish divergences, yet I excluded them from my review and furthermore, considered short gold and long dollar at that time as extremely safe trades.

  3. Mark

    For sure there is one thing:
    The whole PM world sentiment is at probably its lowest level EVER.
    I don’t think,unfortunately,this will lead to higher prices,but a break lower will further increase this historical negative sentiment.
    Today Martin Armstrong published this:
    http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39922
    He thinks we are nearing new lows for gold,he also think the bottom should probably be around next fall.
    I hope he will be wrong of course but I cannot deny he has been right since 2011.
    I continue to follow this great blog and Gary Savage’s work because I found him very professional .
    The most interesting factor about Gary,according to me,is that him does not rule out an up move of gold,stock market and the US dollar all together.
    This is the same of what Martin Armstrong thinks,but Gary Savage thinks that the timing could be anticipated.
    It’s the clash of the titans!!!!! ๐Ÿ™‚

  4. Chris

    SPX closes at 2080 in November. And fyi, SPX has rarely been down in December. And we have a dude that said December is dangerous for equities. “Good Luck” !

    1. AlexP

      I am that dude. I am a dude 100% in cash so that I cannot have neither luck nor bad luck in this state ๐Ÿ™‚
      But, those dudes still long equities at the beginning of next week will need a large slate of “good luck!” wishes and prays.

  5. Stefan

    I’ve seen the truth ๐Ÿ™‚ the truth is out there (x-files?), visible for the ones taking a very close look at the goldchart.

    We got years left in this bear, however it’s not a straight line, rally and downs will succeed one another. Ready to be exploited via geometrical and fractional math.

    /Agent Molder

    1. MuffinTop

      “We got years left in this bear..”
      You probably said the same thing when stocks were plummeting back in 2009.. and look what happened. The evidence — and there’s a shit load — is telling us that we are near a bottom in Gold/Miners. Why can’t you see something that’s staring right at you? For the love of God the almighty and powerful — Why?!

  6. AlexP

    exactly what I wanted to see: treasuries in a strong upthrust today confirming the new intermediate cycle.

    all t-notes will produce their DCH tomorrow and swing high on Thursday –> I will go short there (via etf PST) as t-notes fall in daily cycle decline with the target of closing the trade one week from now and to resume it arround Christmass after a higher high will have been put quickly and when the BIG intermediary cycle decline in treasuries starts [and yearly cycle decline resumes].

    1. Lil' Ricky

      Just curious, but why PST? It looks terribly illiquid. Have you ever traded TBT? Or are you looking for something specifically at the short end of the yield curve?

      More generally, do you have any thoughts on the overall bond picture? I’ve read people for literally the past 15 years calling for an end to the bond bull and they’ve had to repeatedly eat their words, but I have to admit that I think their time has now finally arrived. However, I’m not basing that on much more than intuition, so guess I’m wondering if you have a more definitive reason to short bonds, assuming you’re long-term bearish. Could be a “generational” trade, which usually means one you can look back on in a generation and wish you had gotten in on!

  7. Stefan

    MuffinTop why so emotional, if mother nature tells us we got a couple of more years left in this bear why fight it?

    Embrace it instead and accumulate as much gold&silver, both physical and miners as possible, our day will come, big time!

    1. MuffinTop

      I’m actually not all that emotional about it; just being melodramatic for the fun of it. And mother nature is in fact showing us the complete opposite of your 2 year prognosis.. you just need to open those big beautiful eyes of yours, haha : )

  8. chris

    The safest trade is blah blah blah…. Er. We are here to make money. I put my money in safe deposit, eh I never lose money, and I can flaunt here and tell all others how to invest.

    I tell you what’s the safest trade. Spx when you long at 2040 during the Paris bombing. You ride it to 2100, and ride it up further. The price will get further from your costs. And you enjoy good profits. You can place your stop losses anywhere above costs. You protect your capital, while enjoying very high profits. Versus, one who tells u to buy a little, that it is risky, then tells u to sell very early bcos it is risky. We are in the seasonally most bullish period for my goodness sake.

    And then comes the funniest. When you long stocks, you made fast , good profits. Dude tells you to buy dollar, and scalped for peanuts. Then best shorted gold at 1070 ish to earn $10 drop. Huh? When gold was COT bearish weeks ago, he never suggested shorting gold. After a huge drop, he suggested shorting as low risk trade and earn $10, ie, $1000 per gold contract. A stock position would have yield easily 6 times more.

    Remember what I have said, spx is down only like 25% ish of the time in December for the past few decades!!!

  9. chris

    Gdx appears to breakout of its diamond formation bottom. Bottom pickers, at least now there’s price strength signal to get long. For me, I prefer some cautiousness due to ECB and payroll Friday.

  10. chris

    Lol, yup muffin. I am a sarcastic person especially when I see something so obvious. Ok let me continue;)

    Safest? Er…. When I long Russell or dax a week ago, I could safely ride the trend for days. On the other hand, Dude said the safest trade was long dollar short gold. Eh, must quickly cover in 2 days for what was a joke of the town profit. A landmark new definition of ” Safest” !

    And spx max 2104? Er… I checked, its 2 points away. Tonight I guarantee you it will clear it. Lol.

    Ok back to business. I think spx at 2120-2130 ish is the level to lock in profits. See how it behaves, and look to relong . I wouldn’t wanna short tis market. Tis is a buy on dips market until it is proven otherwise.

    1. Gary Post author

      Without a crystal ball there is no such thing as a safe trade ๐Ÿ™‚ It’s easy to say one should do this or that after it’s already happened. It’s another thing to do it in real time.

      1. Gary Post author

        For me the safe trade now is to wait until we get the next crash in january or February and then go long under the assumption that the Fed will step in again like they did during the August crash.

  11. Hong Bang

    Some one can read the array of Armstrong?
    I read him everyday lik doing with Gary’s blog.

    I am confusing with the color bar in his array. If someone have an explaination, please let expand for all.

    Thanks

  12. chris

    Lol, yes Hong. Armstrong array is so confusing. Maybe his computer is old type , no money to upgrade??!! Lol

    But yes, I enjoy reading his blog. Very informative. More right than wrong. And like I said, he will say if above a level , bull, below a level bear. His levels are quite good.

  13. chris

    Yes Gary, tis is another way of investing. Some people made millions by only buying the market when there are big drops. Like 6-9% drop. No cycle or bicycle count. Just buy big when market drops big. They only buy 2-3 times a year.

    Tis a simple brainless, stressless way of playing. You are right 80+% of the time.

  14. x963

    The two most recent times the Gold COT Commercial Shorts fell to 15,000 the gold futures rallied $200 and $100. Couple that with Friday’s run stop down gap, add the bullish XAU divergence, and the potential exists for a profitable countertrend rally using a violation of Friday’s low as a stop. Since 2013, the XAU has had six rallies of 25% or more. Even during a bear market, there are opportunities to make money quickly being long gold stocks, usually terminating at the weekly upper Bollinger Band.

    Just remember: it’s a date, not a marriage.

  15. Hong Bang

    Agree chris !

    Investing is a crazy game we play in our life with our main adversaires being our-self.

    Like saying ! You pay big for the lesson before getting small revenue !

    Thanks

  16. AlexP

    USX has cautiously rested on the lower trendline of its rising wedge (lending gold its standstill mode at a tight 1060-1070 range).

    Clearly this is wary positioning before the ECB meeting tomorrow and this [lack of] price action at this level underscores the riskiness of being either long or short on USX/bonds/metals/any other commodity before getting fundamental direction from ECB tomorrow and market’s resolution via price action on this data to come.

    As a forecast, with the ECB most likely to step up its QE, USX is more probable to invalidate its rising wedge (against many a people’s bearish opinion) by rising above 100.72 tomorrow (the YCH in March) and driving gold lower into FOMC –> this would also cast a clearer technical image that gold put its DCL on NOV18 and a DCH at 1087 two days later.

    1. AlexP

      Nota bene: Italy, the 3rd largest economy in the euro-zone, reported its CPI yesterday at a deflationary level slightly beyond expectations. If to this you add the fact that Mario Draghi is an Italian himself then … QE extra guns tomorrow are on high probability –> hence euro falling –> USX going skywards –> gold dragged into bushes [short-term at least]

    2. Gary Post author

      That was not a DCL in gold. DCL’s have to be clearly visible on a longer term chart. They have to bounce enough to change sentiment. Usually that means breaking the cycle down trend line, but in this case that would mean a move above 1140. At the very minimum a DCL has to produce a bounce strong enough to close above the 10 DMA and a tag of the upper Bollinger band. None of those conditions have been met yet so gold has yet to confirm a DCL.

      1. AlexP

        then what should an “inversion”, as defined by stockcharts at this link, look like:
        http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:cycle_lines

        excerpt: “Sometimes a cycle high occurs when there should be a cycle low and visa versa. This can happen when a cycle high or low is skipped or is minimal. A cycle low may be short or almost non-existent in a strong uptrend. Similarly, markets can fall fast and skip a cycle high during sharp declines. Inversions are more prominent with shorter cycles and less common with longer cycles.”

  17. chris

    Ya, gold I think have to first clear 1083-1085. To make any rally having any sustainable chance IMHO. Gdx diamond breakout better hold. Bcos if not, a failed move may make a breakdown freaking force and fast

  18. zkotpen

    x963

    “Just remember: itโ€™s a date, not a marriage.”

    Great analogy!

    People talk about being a day trader, swing trader, long term, etc. I agree that it’s the other way round: The market moves dictate the best length of time to hold a position. For gold stocks, I think in terms of day trading, and sometimes swing trading lately. If the moves were longer, I’d be thinking in longer time frames.

    Likewise for long or short.

  19. Chris

    I am tightening to stops to take profit. But I can’t help but noticed, other than many inverted HS in markets, am I the only one seeing a cup and handle in NDX? Bottom line, don’t be too bearish.

  20. Chris

    Wow, bloody stupid gold tanked again. Made daily lower low. Was so tempted to long at 1072 ish. Luckily did not.

  21. Chris

    And the bloody shitty thing is, gdx from diamond, it has transformed into a possible wedge. It did not convincingly breakout. Now lets see.

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