39 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Gary Post author

    The powers that be will try to keep gold suppressed but it’s going to be tough to do if the euro is surging and the dollar is tanking.

  2. AlexP

    yes, indeed, Gary.
    Mario Draghi was a surprising disappointment: USX is already in intermediary decline on a failed daily cycle.

    SPX = 2104.27 will remain the high of the dead-cat bounce.
    Though, I’ll go short stocks only tomorrow after Empl.Sit. report; I am shorting t-notes.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said the powers that be will try to keep gold suppressed, but it may be tough if the euro just put in an intermediate degree bottom and begins a 4-6 week rally.

      1. AlexP

        Gary, it depends on the result of tomorrow’s jobs report –> if it comes in strong, fear of the rate hike may keep off gold’s and euro’s bulls.
        If it comes in weak, then these bulls will be more spirited.

      2. Bud Fox

        The powers to be? What possible reason would anybody give a crap about the price of gold to keep it suppressed.
        Last time I checked gold has been and is in a long term downtrend.
        As I said many times, gold has not made a weekly higher high in years and until that changes it will continue.

  3. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Thanks for consistently indicating the 200 period SMA’s. I use 8 for trading (I see you use 10).

    But the way I use the longer term SMA’s allows me to really see the rare events as they come into focus. I started with the weekly chart, now examining the daily charts using 200 periods as well, basically doing what I suggested you do: QUANTIFYING the departure from the mean. In this light, for instance, the tricky period for gold of January – October, 2012, makes sense, whereas using smaller sample SMA’s, it’s confusing.

    Sure, that’s in retrospect. So I did the same analysis for IBB. I could never get a clear wave count on that, say from March, 2009 to present, using the smaller sample sizes. But with the 200 week/day samples, it’s much clearer — I can see that after the current correction, there’s one more primary wave up to go — which is what you have been calling for…

    So basically, I switch between 200 period and 8 period samples, looking for different clues from each.

    Cheers mate!

  4. jack

    it is so ridiculous. physical demand is high and crimix is running out of gold and dollar got dumped this morning, gold only managed to have a few dollars gain.

    This is totally a fraud. There is no market anymore.

    1. Gary Post author

      We have been living in managed markets since 2009. That is the reason you get gignatic moves like we saw in the currenices this morning. It’s because central banks try to control asset prices and push them where they aren’t meant to go naturally. This ends up building huge pressure into the markets so when they break you end up with a dislocation like we got this morning.

      The same principle applied to stocks this summer. The natural trend was for stocks to drop, but the Fed kept fighting the trend and intervening in the markets so the end result was a dislocation and a crash.

      Until governments get out of the business of managing asset markets we will continue to have these crash events from time to time.

      1. jack

        Wall Street’s paper market will lose all credit. people all go for physical.

        ECB didn’t cooperate. I doubt there will be rate hiking next week. so they won’t make NFP very pretty tomorrow.

        All economic data and markets are fraud.

  5. AlexP

    it’s nice too like at VIX’ daily chart 🙂 its price has been beautifully ribboning the 200dma since OCT8, for nearly 2 months.
    It’s time that hesitation of VIX to be broken….which way to go then ?!

    I’ll make that bet tomorrow and it is a high probability (but not enough for me to trade yet) that it will be UPWARDS for VIX.

  6. victor

    for your entertainment that what I saw at ForexFactory:
    Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Member | 363 Posts | Online Now
    A supernatural power is making me lose.
    No joking. I do make in FX but what i make in a few days i can lose in a few hours.
    Take today for example. Euro and GBP rose so fast over 180 pips on some pairs and i was short on those pairs SL around 180pips and it got hit while when i make price rises typically say 20-40 pips in my favor before it retraces or totally reverses and i need to change my TP closer.
    I think i really am cursed. I feel that a supernatural being/power is making sure i lose.

  7. bhowe

    Gary,

    I thought you were long SPX thru the year. I believe you called it a safe bet that the government won’t let it correct. I see Alex P is calling a top now, are you in his camp now?

    1. Gary Post author

      I took profits on all stock positions when I saw the coil starting to form last week. I’ll now sit on the sidelines until the next crash event probably in January.

      1. Al

        Very wise words Gary I hope most take heed of what you are doing. I have noticed a number of early events the last week or two which in past crashes/hefty corrections always played out first. Anyone long the general equity markets into January needs to be very careful.

  8. zkotpen

    Alex,

    Have you tried the 200 period sample size on the 30 minute chart?

    I’m looking at that for GDX. 😉

    1. AlexP

      sorry, Z, but I do not know anything about GDX, I do like trading miners 🙂
      therefore I am not able to assert any opinion on the subject – where I do not know, I simply do not know 🙂 and I let the interested experts to draw opinions on the topic that they are well aware of.
      Asking me of GDX is tantamount to asking any tyro

  9. victor

    Hi Alex, unfortunately my posts are too late as it awaiting moderation sometimes for 5-6 hrs, so this is from yesterday, do you think we are not going to revisit 2100 or close to SPX? Thank you.
    “December 2, 2015 at 8:28 pm
    as for me, I listened, bought yesterday HVU (triple VIX S) good profit, closed. Didn’t have chance to buy another portion today at 104. Hopefully tomorrow we will come to 100 again, will short SPX with HVU again till January…

    1. AlexP

      hello, Victor!
      90% it wont revisit 2100 level before JAN8 but I a higher probability would come tomorrow on jobs report if the figure is >200k.
      If indeed >200k tomorrow, then I am expecting a bounce in SPX tomorrow at the opening (maybe to some 2055-2060) and there i will place my shorts.
      If both these things do not occur (>200k and a bounce above 2055) then I will not short but rather wait to buy on JAN08

  10. PK

    Why do I get the sense that there is one last bit of fuckery in gold. I am long the miners but the action over the last 2 weeks looks very bear flagish to me. The damn thing just cant breakout. Hold into the jobs number or sell now and wait for the outcome? Tomorrow will mark a huge move in gold and miners alike.

  11. Gary Post author

    The ECB is going to have a tough time reversing this move. The natural market forces are violently reversing the damage done to the currencies when the ECB artificially forced the euro lower when it should have been going higher.

    We may see a megaphone topping pattern develop in the dollar chart.

  12. Atkjhi

    Gary

    What are the chances that you could have the YCL in December 2015 and then the 2016 YCL in January?

    1. Gary Post author

      It doesn’t work that way. A complete intermediate cycle has to run and usually two before the next YCL.

  13. victor

    sorry Gary for my posts giving you headache with moderation, I can’t leave it as I’m here several years and value it a lot. …
    You should start charging people, really, let say 5 $ p/month, I think people would agree …

  14. Simo83

    gold is not performing well with this move in the usd eur exchange…so gold is even more cheap in a lot of currencies…chance for foreigner to buy more…but…as someone have said…this bear market will not end until the last of the last of the last of gold bugs will hate gold, maybe, or maybe not

    1. Gary Post author

      I would say the bear market has nothing to do with how many gold bugs are left. We’ve already seen multiple bottoms with sentiment at decade lows. So we’ve already had multiple capitulation events. For the bear to end something has to stop the price rigging in the metals market. I don’t know what that will be but I’m confident it will happen.

  15. Anthonyo

    To me, this Euro move today was a one day wonder. Draghi didn’t deliver more negative rates, hence Euro gets a false dawn.
    With deflation ripping through Eurozone, ECB will have no choice but to push down rates even deeper into negative territory.
    USD will be the last currency standing for a while, until it gets hammered too in the end.

  16. Dan

    If the ‘free market’ is asserting itself here the SPX should sell off violently (bad jobs number trigger?). No more criminal intervention stick saves. If I see one more ridiculous daily bullish engulfing im taking profits on all shorts immediately.

  17. zkotpen

    AlexP,

    “Asking me of GDX is tantamount to asking any tyro”

    Actually, my question was:

    “Have you tried the 200 period sample size on the 30 minute chart?”

    At any rate, mult noroc!

    1. AlexP

      haaa! cool, well said, Z! you, my Romanian fellow here 🙂

      No, I have never tried that average on such short-timed samples, only averages for dailies and weeklies. My minimum trading period span is 2 days and maximum is 4 months.

      The only time I tried day-trading I multiplied my capital 3.3 times in merely 3 days; I was confident at that time I would become millionaire in less than a month except that it took me several months to get myself ….. wiped out to just $234 – I still remember the figure even if it was a long time ago.
      I guess a 30-min chart would be useful for day-trading …

  18. David Silver

    Crude held for second straight day of lows set last Monday.
    Crude also held August 24th lows.
    If crude can surpass $41.50 then we are golden for a run to $50.
    Wednesday appears to be a classic undercut low phenomenon.
    OPEC meeting in one hour!
    Mr. Savage and others think $44.
    Elliottwave thinks $60.

    1. Anthonyo

      Saudis are dragging Russians and Iran regime through the mud with suppression of oil price. What makes anyone think the Saudis will just let off without concrete actions by Russia to ease off in Syria, and the mullahs in Iran backing off? Not gonna happen. Until, the big war in the region with all parties involved the seeds of which were sown by Obama’s nuke deal with the Devil. Only then you will get you roil price exceeding $150 old high.
      Second factor: Deflation ripping through Eurozone, China… with slowing economies across the world and even a US recession potentially in the horizon, where do you think oil is headed?

      1. Gary Post author

        Actually most of the economic data in Europe has been improving and many economic numbers are better than the US numbers.

  19. Herman

    well, looks like the shorts are getting caught here. According to contrarianadvisor, gold could rally short-term to 1220/oz, silver to 17/oz, EUR/USD to 1,20. Then the drop.

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