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Let’s keep in mind that the market is still 2% within it’s all time high. I’ve never the bears get bearish so quickly. Moonshot coming.
Team Elliott sees a bottom in the SPX and a start to all time highs.
Elliott boys (different organization) are bullish on gold
Also still bullish on crude
Currency, Equity or Gold – Take your pick as you wish!!!
Nice charting William, thanks a million William!
No prob. mate…my hobby!
I dont believe in the idea of FED’s covert propping the market – otherwise we would see it in its balance sheet with loads of stocks on the assets side, but … it is worth noting that indexes and particularly Transports are heavily oversold so that indeed a come back would be warranted to raise oscillators out of their oversold levels.
After Transports, NYA is the 2nd to confirm the IC decline today with a failed DC.
Transports are late in their timing band to deliver an YCL which would also be multi-year cycle low and also very very close to the AUG24 level –> after bouncing next days to cool oscialators, a dive to new lows is to come in early JAN to deliver the MYCL.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Fed has a trading desk to buy S&P futures. I think they just float interest free loans to the big banks when they need the market to go up and the banks do the buying.
I see both in collusion here’s why:
Trading desks want to make money up and down not just up.
FED wants market to remain upbeat and inviting to all
Two entities in control
Gold 1066.40 still intact (bullish)
36.64 held today
Tuesday capitulation intraday low
Today first report held via 36.87
Second report flew to 38.99
37.75 was truncated up and down
Currently trading 37.38
My hunch we are basing off the lows
If US Indices have bottomed here energy should be strong
25 rate hike priced in
No rate hike more explosive rally
Gold should rally either way then
Long crude as of midday
Long miners as of Friday’s open
Big time stress in the credit markets i.e. junk bonds and the risk of defaults is starting to infect the financials. Junk bonds have diverged from equities for months and Jeffery Gundlach the new “Bond King” sounded alarm bells (yesterday) on a potential policy error by the FED. Keep a close eye on JNK to see if the waterfall continues into the FED meeting and after! ✌️
The Treasury (PPT) DOES have a trading desk though.
hhmmm! Even if such a deal exists btw FED and large market makers, I barely see a major, consistent and constant impact of it onto the market or, anyway, the impact of such would-be FED-driven transactions are lagely overemphasized even if such low-intrest fund are fed to market makers only for buy-side transactions (to rule out potential shorts with government’s money).
CAUTION is the answer:
– successful traders are very cautious with their own money,
– money managers (hedge fuinds included) who enforce very strict trading rules onto their traders to the level of what strategies must be or not employed while they are responsible both for their own money and clients’.
JUST IMAGINE, EMPATHIZE WITH THE TRADER WHO DEALS GOVERNMENT’S MONEY (IF SUCH DEALS EXIST INDEED), WHAT KIND OF PRESSURE LIES ON HIM KNOWING THAT HE EFFECTIVELY DEALS “KING’S” MONEY, THAT ALL THAT CASH TRADED IS ON LOAN (BE IT EVEN ON ZERO INTEREST) AND NOT LOAN FROM A BY-PASSENGER BUT FED’S !!!
I dont know about you, Gary, but I would sweat on every acquisition I would make –> those traders cannot throw themselves with ease to buy …. in any event, any “buy”decision would still have a significant weight of market-wise decision making behind it.
This proves that the ghost of FED’s all-out , prevalent market intervention is grossly over-rated.
Perhaps the smartest move is still simply to place GTC orders to buy GDX in the single digits and walk away from the computer? 🙂
Anything is possible in the magical land of Narnia ?
“The draw halted an 11-week streak of supply increases”
Ironically this goes back near the flash crash figures of 8/24 aka 37.75.
Is this the U bottom of crude?
Team Elliot went long crude via UCO at 11am after second report.
Same team calling for crude $33.
Only in this farcical world is calling for a 20%+ drop in the S&P considered delusional while people still harp about this supposed bubble phase with the high yield credit collapse accelerating.
My puts are doing just fine, and im long gold now as well.
Don’t get me wrong, I think we need a bigger move down first before the bubble phase can begin. The Fed needs to start QE4. They need to turn the money spigot back on to drive the bubble phase.
I’m pretty confident they eventually will. It’s not logical to expect the Fed to sit on the sidelines and watch 5 trillion dollars go down the drain and not do whatever it takes to stop it.
Another day with these blatant interventions, why do I get the feeling we’ll never have another August like drop again. So pathetic.
Mr. Savage or anybody what do you make of these fundamentals?http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/crude-oil-inventories-75
The Market always drops in the first half of December and rallies back up just in time to welcome Santa down the chimney. Why would this year be any different when so many Billions are already on the line?
Why you guys so sure FED wants the market to remain upbeat ? the rising dollar is a major headache they have. The more market goes up the more amasses of dollars will come from everywhere… it’s getting very overheated situation. FED looking for a balance and wants to stop dollar coming in such a mass way and the only way to do that is to make US market unattractive with mini crashes. No big crash I think because election year.
Crude holding steady after manipulated open
Printed 52 week low by .09 pre market
Aborting crude long and going short due to intraday technicals
there’s much better instruments to trade then this headache David.
For those who didn’t read Goldman Sacks forecasts for 2016:
“there are high risks near term that the supply adjustment proves too slow as inventories continue to build and storage utilization nears high levels in the face of a mild winter, slowing EM growth and a potential lift of international sanctions on Iran.”
Should surpluses breach current capacity, they see the risk of oil prices reaching just $20 a barrel.”
Just buy the dips!
p.s. 3 stocks ready to go much higher: FIT, ELTP, TKOI
Miners displaying diversion once again.
An “inverted hammer” on the close, HUI, GDX…sign of reveral!
* sign of reversal
Why do I get the feeling that some of you are over-trading and should probably learn to lay off the trigger a little. Folks, if there’s one thing that I’ve learned over the past ten years is that there is a time for everything and sometimes, it’s best to allow the Market to do whatever it needs to do so as to avoid trading in & out pointlessly.
Fact: I’ve made more money ‘swing trading’ with that philosophy in mind than most of the ‘day-traders’ I know.
Don’t waste your time/energy/capital on pointless trades.. find another hobby (or a girlfriend) instead and pull the trigger at the most opportune time 🙂
I give good advice, I know.. You don’t have to say it — Just feel it inside.
? ??? A sin that i wish to avoid at times too…
Haha William you Sinner!
Always always…always trying to repent!
Amen. Restrained from saying it myself a number of times MT as I thought it a touchy subject but by reading the posts here for just a couple of months I can see the vast majority are trying to forecast way too far out or over trading like madmen.
Miners – Are we going to get a follow-through tonight?
Updated with GDX – has a more obvious ‘inverted hammer’ for a visual sake.
William metals meandering due to next week’s FED meeting
Frustrated with NUGT at the moment
Will sell NUGT on next pop
Reinvest in crude short pop
Either we get that top in coming days prior to next Thursday or I would get stopped out!
Just noted that FTSE China A50 (the underlying index for FXI) put-in an overnight ‘inverted hammer’ daily closing right on top of its major horizontal support!
Interesting observation…seems to be pricing in good macro data out of China latter today???
William gold 1166.40 in jeapordy?
Had three instances to sell:
Mon open was best (your recommendation)
Today mid afternoon.
Figured Fri @ open but went south at the close!
Am looking at 1,663 instead…from the nice little uptrend from Nov 27th on the daily chart…so let’s see what it would do during Asian hours. DXY, 98.5 should be a good resistance on 240mins chart for now..
Watch these two levels closely…
Sounds good my man
William gold overnight low this far 1065.20!
Crude fluttering down again (seems to be my hedge on losing miners trade)
May eject come the open to double down on crude 32.99
Bloody stupid gold and silver dying again. The writings were in the sky when it could only rally a little when dollar plunged few days ago.
In reality it’s impossible for golds daily cycle to top on day one. But in the rigged metals market it sure looks like the cartel has stopped the rally in its tracks Monday, and is forcing a daily cycle top on day 1, and is setting gold up to take a beating on the FOMC meeting next week.
A must watch if you’re an investor especially in metals:https://youtu.be/BOHeCotWh90
And 4 years ago he said silver pullbacks are a gift.
He also thinks silver will eventually bottom @$9 minimum and $7 maximum and can be rewarded 20x better return than gold.
Just got a bullish engulfing closing on 60mins and 120mins charts for XAU, so, look like we have 1-2 trading days’ window for a positive exit!
Haha now that’s what I’m talking about William!?
Appears she may ramp up @ open too!?
Opps, not so fast, the 60mins bullished engulfing is followed by a bearish engulfing…What the heck is this? Got to play by ear pal…
Do you think the pre-FOMC setup in metals includes an attempt at a weekly swing low in gold by today’s close?
It looks to me like the cartel is trying to force a day one top to the gold cycle and then hit it hard on the FOMC meeting. However, it could also be a fakeout to get people short and then gold takes off to the upside on the Fed annoucement.
This sector is tough as nothing works anymore. Cycles are routinely stretched to absurd lengths, technicals don’t work, and sentiment doesn’t work. The only thing that works is to have inside info has to where the bullion banks are going to push gold next. Unfortunately they never send me a memo ahead of time so it’s just a guess.
Let’s just say I expect a ramp higher after the annoucement next week, but I’m afraid it’s going to be another attack.
yeap, I think gold will initially move down as USD will move up into its DCH of a last, left-translated DC
Psychologically the same trends (gold and USD) will translate as –> smart money will let euphoria kick in USD market (automatically sending gold lower) while USD-bull retailers will get hit in less than a fortnight from now as smart money will initiate shorts into that strength.
It is only there that gold will be worth buying short-term.
Medium-term I am pessimistic on gold –> I think it will go 3-digit into 900 area before bottoming in the spring (I do not see gold below 900 in any event, though) WHILE USD WILL MOVE ABOVE THE PRIOR YCH OF 100.72 TO SET BOTH THIS YC (number 2) AND THE 3-YEAR CYCLE RIGHT-TRANSLATED AS WELL AS TO PRODUCE A BULL TRAP !
I give very very high probability to these short- and medium- term moves.!
…all these moves as I see them are post-FOMC. Until then, USD has to move lower to set its DCL
the next IC of USX will prove left-translated but it will be enough to render the current YC and 3-year cycle right-translated.
Thus, the next ICH of USX in spring will also be YCH and 3YCH.
Going long gold there will be very safe.
On daily chart, gold just hit a low of 1163.13 and rebounded. There you go, Dave, we shall see if the rebound is for real!!!
I have an idea of which I am getting more convinced: that ECB did not raise its QE capacity in order to give room FED to raise rates next week –> had it debased its currency before the imminent FED hike, ECB would have left FED in the offside (a term for soccer fans), Draghi would have shown his bottom to his central banker mates on the other side of the ocean
The French say “noblesse oblige!”
Postponing QE gun capacity increase was a “noblesse-oblige” act of Draghi’s.
THOUGH, HE WILL INCREASE THE GUN IN THE WINTER –> THIS WILL RENDER USX TO GO BALLISTIC AND SENTIMENT MOVE INTO FULL COMPLACENCY THUS STAGING THE 3-YEAR CYCLE HIGH TO COME QUICKLY AFTER, IN THE SPRING.
Gold and USD moved lower at the same time. One of them is telling a white lie again ???
William & Mr. Savage,
You guys were right with the gold shakeout!
The saving grace, DXY’s 10D-EMA crossed down 20D-EMA…more downside to come…
but the downside is to finish soon, DCL on Tuesday, shaking out 200dma.
good to read Alex… (sorry if you read it already) https://srsroccoreport.com/gold-silver-prices-will-surge-on-fundamentals-not-technical-analysis/
and look how I was too hurry to stop spx shorting… still can go lower but I’m not going to tail it… going for metals in full force…
With junk bonds crashing, TLT rallying, forget about FED raising rates next week. Postpone this shannanigan till next year
Gary, please manage my comments by going to dashboard of your blog – Comments – Author (check my name) – Bulk Actions – Approve – Apply.
It just a pain to see my comment waiting for 5-6 hrs for moderation…
The perfect storm:
US Market’s bearish technically as ever
Gold finally resuming it’s rally
USD on a brink of collapsing technically
Zero chance of a rate hike now
What happens next?
Out of miners and second tranched crude short
So much for that “bubble phase” nonsense. At least Gary backed out of it last week when it became clearer a top was forming in the rigged general markets.
My puts tripled today alone but I’m not taking profits yet. Let this turkey implode.
William! China shares taking a serious beating today. I have been reading your posts and charts and respect your insight. What do you see now with China? I am thinking of going long…