70 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY”

  1. ted

    Let’s keep in mind that the market is still 2% within it’s all time high. I’ve never the bears get bearish so quickly. Moonshot coming.

  4. AlexP

    I dont believe in the idea of FED’s covert propping the market – otherwise we would see it in its balance sheet with loads of stocks on the assets side, but … it is worth noting that indexes and particularly Transports are heavily oversold so that indeed a come back would be warranted to raise oscillators out of their oversold levels.

    After Transports, NYA is the 2nd to confirm the IC decline today with a failed DC.

    Transports are late in their timing band to deliver an YCL which would also be multi-year cycle low and also very very close to the AUG24 level –> after bouncing next days to cool oscialators, a dive to new lows is to come in early JAN to deliver the MYCL.

    1. Gary Post author

      Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the Fed has a trading desk to buy S&P futures. I think they just float interest free loans to the big banks when they need the market to go up and the banks do the buying.

      1. David Silver

        I see both in collusion here’s why:
        Trading desks want to make money up and down not just up.
        FED wants market to remain upbeat and inviting to all
        Two entities in control
        Note:
        Gold 1066.40 still intact (bullish)
        Crude:
        36.64 held today
        Tuesday capitulation intraday low
        Today first report held via 36.87
        Second report flew to 38.99
        37.75 was truncated up and down
        Currently trading 37.38
        Fundamental diversion?
        My hunch we are basing off the lows
        US markets:
        If US Indices have bottomed here energy should be strong
        25 rate hike priced in
        No rate hike more explosive rally
        Gold should rally either way then
        Positions:
        Long crude as of midday
        Long miners as of Friday’s open

      2. Jorgy

        Big time stress in the credit markets i.e. junk bonds and the risk of defaults is starting to infect the financials. Junk bonds have diverged from equities for months and Jeffery Gundlach the new “Bond King” sounded alarm bells (yesterday) on a potential policy error by the FED. Keep a close eye on JNK to see if the waterfall continues into the FED meeting and after! ✌️

      4. AlexP

        hhmmm! Even if such a deal exists btw FED and large market makers, I barely see a major, consistent and constant impact of it onto the market or, anyway, the impact of such would-be FED-driven transactions are lagely overemphasized even if such low-intrest fund are fed to market makers only for buy-side transactions (to rule out potential shorts with government’s money).
        Why?
        CAUTION is the answer:
        – successful traders are very cautious with their own money,
        – money managers (hedge fuinds included) who enforce very strict trading rules onto their traders to the level of what strategies must be or not employed while they are responsible both for their own money and clients’.
        JUST IMAGINE, EMPATHIZE WITH THE TRADER WHO DEALS GOVERNMENT’S MONEY (IF SUCH DEALS EXIST INDEED), WHAT KIND OF PRESSURE LIES ON HIM KNOWING THAT HE EFFECTIVELY DEALS “KING’S” MONEY, THAT ALL THAT CASH TRADED IS ON LOAN (BE IT EVEN ON ZERO INTEREST) AND NOT LOAN FROM A BY-PASSENGER BUT FED’S !!!
        I dont know about you, Gary, but I would sweat on every acquisition I would make –> those traders cannot throw themselves with ease to buy …. in any event, any “buy”decision would still have a significant weight of market-wise decision making behind it.
        This proves that the ghost of FED’s all-out , prevalent market intervention is grossly over-rated.

  5. Jay

    Perhaps the smartest move is still simply to place GTC orders to buy GDX in the single digits and walk away from the computer? 🙂

  6. David Silver

    Crude:
    “The draw halted an 11-week streak of supply increases”
    Ironically this goes back near the flash crash figures of 8/24 aka 37.75.
    Is this the U bottom of crude?

    1. David Silver

      Team Elliot went long crude via UCO at 11am after second report.
      Same team calling for crude $33.

  7. Dan

    Only in this farcical world is calling for a 20%+ drop in the S&P considered delusional while people still harp about this supposed bubble phase with the high yield credit collapse accelerating.

    My puts are doing just fine, and im long gold now as well.

    1. Gary Post author

      Don’t get me wrong, I think we need a bigger move down first before the bubble phase can begin. The Fed needs to start QE4. They need to turn the money spigot back on to drive the bubble phase.

      I’m pretty confident they eventually will. It’s not logical to expect the Fed to sit on the sidelines and watch 5 trillion dollars go down the drain and not do whatever it takes to stop it.

      1. Dan

        Another day with these blatant interventions, why do I get the feeling we’ll never have another August like drop again. So pathetic.

  9. MuffinTop

    The Market always drops in the first half of December and rallies back up just in time to welcome Santa down the chimney. Why would this year be any different when so many Billions are already on the line?

  10. victor

    Why you guys so sure FED wants the market to remain upbeat ? the rising dollar is a major headache they have. The more market goes up the more amasses of dollars will come from everywhere… it’s getting very overheated situation. FED looking for a balance and wants to stop dollar coming in such a mass way and the only way to do that is to make US market unattractive with mini crashes. No big crash I think because election year.

  11. David Silver

    Crude:
    Crude holding steady after manipulated open
    Printed 52 week low by .09 pre market
    Gold:
    1066.40 holding

    1. victor

      there’s much better instruments to trade then this headache David.
      For those who didn’t read Goldman Sacks forecasts for 2016:
      “there are high risks near term that the supply adjustment proves too slow as inventories continue to build and storage utilization nears high levels in the face of a mild winter, slowing EM growth and a potential lift of international sanctions on Iran.”
      Should surpluses breach current capacity, they see the risk of oil prices reaching just $20 a barrel.”

  15. MuffinTop

    Why do I get the feeling that some of you are over-trading and should probably learn to lay off the trigger a little. Folks, if there’s one thing that I’ve learned over the past ten years is that there is a time for everything and sometimes, it’s best to allow the Market to do whatever it needs to do so as to avoid trading in & out pointlessly.

    Fact: I’ve made more money ‘swing trading’ with that philosophy in mind than most of the ‘day-traders’ I know.

    Don’t waste your time/energy/capital on pointless trades.. find another hobby (or a girlfriend) instead and pull the trigger at the most opportune time 🙂

    I give good advice, I know.. You don’t have to say it — Just feel it inside.

    2. Al

      Amen. Restrained from saying it myself a number of times MT as I thought it a touchy subject but by reading the posts here for just a couple of months I can see the vast majority are trying to forecast way too far out or over trading like madmen.

  18. David Silver

    William metals meandering due to next week’s FED meeting
    Frustrated with NUGT at the moment
    Will sell NUGT on next pop
    Reinvest in crude short pop

  19. William

    DavidS,

    Just noted that FTSE China A50 (the underlying index for FXI) put-in an overnight ‘inverted hammer’ daily closing right on top of its major horizontal support!

    Interesting observation…seems to be pricing in good macro data out of China latter today???
    We’ll see…

  20. David Silver

    William gold 1166.40 in jeapordy?
    Had three instances to sell:
    Mon open was best (your recommendation)
    Wed open
    Today mid afternoon.
    Figured Fri @ open but went south at the close!

    1. William

      Am looking at 1,663 instead…from the nice little uptrend from Nov 27th on the daily chart…so let’s see what it would do during Asian hours. DXY, 98.5 should be a good resistance on 240mins chart for now..

      Watch these two levels closely…

        1. David Silver

          William gold overnight low this far 1065.20!
          Crude fluttering down again (seems to be my hedge on losing miners trade)
          May eject come the open to double down on crude 32.99

  21. chris

    Bloody stupid gold and silver dying again. The writings were in the sky when it could only rally a little when dollar plunged few days ago.

  22. Gary Post author

    In reality it’s impossible for golds daily cycle to top on day one. But in the rigged metals market it sure looks like the cartel has stopped the rally in its tracks Monday, and is forcing a daily cycle top on day 1, and is setting gold up to take a beating on the FOMC meeting next week.

      1. David Silver

        He also thinks silver will eventually bottom @$9 minimum and $7 maximum and can be rewarded 20x better return than gold.

  24. William

    DaveS,

    Just got a bullish engulfing closing on 60mins and 120mins charts for XAU, so, look like we have 1-2 trading days’ window for a positive exit!

    cheers…

      1. William

        Opps, not so fast, the 60mins bullished engulfing is followed by a bearish engulfing…What the heck is this? Got to play by ear pal…

  25. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Do you think the pre-FOMC setup in metals includes an attempt at a weekly swing low in gold by today’s close?

    1. Gary Post author

      It looks to me like the cartel is trying to force a day one top to the gold cycle and then hit it hard on the FOMC meeting. However, it could also be a fakeout to get people short and then gold takes off to the upside on the Fed annoucement.

      This sector is tough as nothing works anymore. Cycles are routinely stretched to absurd lengths, technicals don’t work, and sentiment doesn’t work. The only thing that works is to have inside info has to where the bullion banks are going to push gold next. Unfortunately they never send me a memo ahead of time so it’s just a guess.

      Let’s just say I expect a ramp higher after the annoucement next week, but I’m afraid it’s going to be another attack.

      1. AlexP

        yeap, I think gold will initially move down as USD will move up into its DCH of a last, left-translated DC
        Psychologically the same trends (gold and USD) will translate as –> smart money will let euphoria kick in USD market (automatically sending gold lower) while USD-bull retailers will get hit in less than a fortnight from now as smart money will initiate shorts into that strength.
        It is only there that gold will be worth buying short-term.

        Medium-term I am pessimistic on gold –> I think it will go 3-digit into 900 area before bottoming in the spring (I do not see gold below 900 in any event, though) WHILE USD WILL MOVE ABOVE THE PRIOR YCH OF 100.72 TO SET BOTH THIS YC (number 2) AND THE 3-YEAR CYCLE RIGHT-TRANSLATED AS WELL AS TO PRODUCE A BULL TRAP !

        I give very very high probability to these short- and medium- term moves.!

        2. AlexP

          the next IC of USX will prove left-translated but it will be enough to render the current YC and 3-year cycle right-translated.
          Thus, the next ICH of USX in spring will also be YCH and 3YCH.
          Going long gold there will be very safe.

  26. William

    On daily chart, gold just hit a low of 1163.13 and rebounded. There you go, Dave, we shall see if the rebound is for real!!!

  27. AlexP

    I have an idea of which I am getting more convinced: that ECB did not raise its QE capacity in order to give room FED to raise rates next week –> had it debased its currency before the imminent FED hike, ECB would have left FED in the offside (a term for soccer fans), Draghi would have shown his bottom to his central banker mates on the other side of the ocean

    The French say “noblesse oblige!”
    Postponing QE gun capacity increase was a “noblesse-oblige” act of Draghi’s.

    THOUGH, HE WILL INCREASE THE GUN IN THE WINTER –> THIS WILL RENDER USX TO GO BALLISTIC AND SENTIMENT MOVE INTO FULL COMPLACENCY THUS STAGING THE 3-YEAR CYCLE HIGH TO COME QUICKLY AFTER, IN THE SPRING.

  30. chris

    With junk bonds crashing, TLT rallying, forget about FED raising rates next week. Postpone this shannanigan till next year

  31. victor

    Gary, please manage my comments by going to dashboard of your blog – Comments – Author (check my name) – Bulk Actions – Approve – Apply.
    It just a pain to see my comment waiting for 5-6 hrs for moderation…

  32. David Silver

    The perfect storm:
    US Market’s bearish technically as ever
    Gold finally resuming it’s rally
    USD on a brink of collapsing technically
    Crude sliding
    Zero chance of a rate hike now
    What happens next?

  34. Dan

    So much for that “bubble phase” nonsense. At least Gary backed out of it last week when it became clearer a top was forming in the rigged general markets.

  36. pepe le pew

    William! China shares taking a serious beating today. I have been reading your posts and charts and respect your insight. What do you see now with China? I am thinking of going long…

Comments are closed.