65 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY”

  2. Stefan

    A beautiful first wave, second wave and third enormous wave but forth wave looks like shit … crash late August early Sept 2016 imho …

  3. chris

    Guys looks like 2015, mid decade gonna be an up year again. It has happened many times. Spx opened the year around 2075. And when will market crash? My guess….. 2017. Why? Accidents happened in 1987, 1997, 2007…. 2017 ?

  4. chris

    Gdx looks like a buy. Took out previous narrow range high. Gold has been dropping expecting FED hike. So sell the rumour buy the fact?

  6. Gary Post author

    Everything looks like a buy right here. The COT’s in everything from stocks to gold to oil are bullish. Sentiment is extreme in gold and oil and neutral in stocks.

    So I don’t see anything that is a screaming sell at the moment.

  7. David Silver

    ETF charts are not concrete and somewhat artificial due to their time decay vs. equities and indices.
    Prepare for meltdown

  8. chris

    IMHO, the safest stock to own now is FB. Cut when it closes below $100. It’s holding very well recently

  10. chris

    I know many feels market gonna crash like 20%. But look at DJIA long term chart. Doesn’t it looks like a backtest of its long run expanding triangle?

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=indu&x=0&y=0&time=20&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F8%2F2015&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=2&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Nice chart!

      Honestly, to me it looks like a huge megaphone, and DOW 1000 is the next major stop.

  11. Don

    Gary, maybe you could alternate between the video presentation with the graphics presentation? Some people definitely liked your video presentations.

  12. Don

    Today, the stock exchanges of the US, Japan, Germany, Britain, France and almost every other European countries took off on the within seconds of one another. Is that manipulation on a grand scale? Is the FED behind it all?

  13. zkotpen

    Gary,

    I’m trying to be as constructive as possible regarding the video. Mouth noises other than speaking are distracting, and they do not lend credibility, accuracy, or probability to a forecast. It seems fashionable to make them — even Yellen was smacking and crunching thru her press conference.

    In the final analysis, a good sounding video should be a slam dunk — hope this helps!

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Gary’s not trying to be fashionable; he’s just a human. I never notice stuff like noises because I’m so focused on what he is saying. Remember too that this blog is free. Gary doesn’t have to do anything here. I myself am really grateful for his insights, noises be dammed. Just focus on the message.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        … I mean, I wonder if folks complained to Buddha or Christ when they were speaking. Have you listened to Hawking? Anyways I think it’s just what one focuses on. Me, I’m all about the message.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Yup, using trendlines for $GOLD has worked in the past. What’s been bothering me though is the fact that as Gary said, we’re in a manipulated market. COT is at like near all time lows, sentiment is low, not sure but I think that long term cycles say we should have hit a bottom. Yet gold hasn’t appreciably gone up. And so maybe via manipulation we could go a lot lower. I’m pretty much flat out lost here. The only trend I see for $GOLD is in the monthly chart, and currently for me it’s still on a sell signal, tho I don’t dare short it.

  16. Bill in Tokyo

    Here’s my 2 yen on what’s going on with SPY, GLD and UUP.

    See the forest using MONTHLY charts.

    Short version: the next BIG moves for these 3 are: SPY down, GLD up. Not sure UUP (only ’cause it’s the worlds base currency).

    Details …

    See SPY climbing out of it’s 2009 low. Why? Was it natural? No, it was QE ($10T globally), and stock buy backs of late. Look at 2015, see how we’re FLATTENED OUT. Why? No more QE. Earnings suck. Everyone has an iphone, and the world is saturated w/stuff, and now debt is due. China’s declining, so kiss basic materials goodbye for now. The next big move? We can’t go up, SO/THUS/THEREFORE we will go DOWN. And w/today’s’ Fed int rate rise, we’re a step further *away* from QE4, so I think NATURAL market forces will step in, and that we go down soon/hard, like in 2008. The market wants it. The entire rise was artificial. No one realizes a profit on the SPY rise unless they sell.

    GLD? See the monthly UUP chart – neg divergence on the RSI(14). And monthly GLD isn’t going down that much. The RSI isn’t oversold, so we could go lower. But that monthly UUP neg div on the RSI tells me that UUP is topping, thus I would anticipate that GLD will bottom soon. Plus as Gary pointed out about COT and sentiment,. I’m not predicting, but odds are that it will rise soon. Except for manipulation.

    That’s the problem w/all this, manipulation. That’s why I’m 100% in cash, shaking like a leaf. HOWEVER, I will probably buy some phys gold as fire insurance soon. SOMETHING’s going to burn.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      … to add about SPY – I think we can’t go up because there is no more FUEL for the rise. The fuel from 2009 was QE, and stock buy backs due to low/zero int rates. But QE is over (for now). And int rates are rising (a bit), so the cost of money is rising, so there will be less buy backs. I think that card is played, and that there is no next. No more fuel folks. One someone big starts to sell, panic will set in and down we go, like in 2008. Me thinks. I’m not long nor short.

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      David, are you the famous Silver brother guy who used to offer trade ideas on silver, then took a round-the-world tour, or maybe it was India, and then stopped that online blog? Man, that guy was a genius. Was it you?

  20. chris

    Jim Rogers? What a genius. Said long tbt for so many years. Broke. Said never sell oil, going to $200. Broke. Buy commodities, buy agriculture. Go look at dbc, DBA. Broke. Co founded quantum fund? Now u know why Soros is so much more wealthier than tis big mouth.

    How you know these guys wealth? Simple. SEC stocks listing. Soros owns billions worth of several companies stocks. Jim Roaches? Oops, must be very little that the press din pick it up.

  21. chris

    I used to respect him. But, I think he is just an entertainer. I recalled he said, be worried about 2013, be panicked about 2014. Omg, those 2 years had such great rally.

  22. ted

    This market is BEYOND bullish. The bears got nothing. And if they continue with their perversions, they will have nothing.

    Watch the sky!

  23. David Silver

    Admittedly so:
    Crude bearish
    Gold now bearish to neutral
    PPT rescues US Indices :
    INDU and COMP bullish
    S&P slightly bullish
    RUS bearish to neutral
    Positions:
    Short two traunches of crude
    Possibility:
    Solar turnaround?

  24. Johan

    Hi guys,
    To me this looks really good for the US equity bull case. Look at that beautiful reverse head n shoulder in SP, they don’t come prettier than that, if we break out look for the sky.
    And someone here said there is no fuel left – there is and it is called retail participation!

  25. AlexP

    SPX to resume its intermediary cycle decline today.
    USX has just topped in its new DC.

    Both SPX and USX will shortly reume their fall.
    One can go long gold pretty safely in a very short time.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to go out on a limb and say that stocks just completed a stretched daily cycle low and will retest the May high before starting down into the next ICL.

      1. AlexP

        Stocks merely touched a HCL not DCL on Monday.
        Now we are witnessing a normal dead-cat bounce partly generated by smart money to fool retailers into buying and then disappointing them terribly until JAN8 into a strong selling climax where smart money will buy dirty cheap.
        Technically, this dead-cat bounce helps oscillators to cool before resuming their fall to produce bullish divergences with stocks indexes.

        2. JaninWales

          Presumably you see the markets turning down soon in order to have that selling climax by the 8th?

          I mean, it won’t just all start on the first week of January, assuming that your theory is right?

          1. AlexP

            correct! I personally expect quick resolution to this fantastic rally.
            Now retailers are hurrying into no-man’s land thinking they are to hit a bonanza but …. their happiness, yelling and charging will all soon come to a halt and they will start looking around “what a hack is happening? there is nothing here….where are we ?!”
            These questions, this kind of attitude will very soon come to evidence by stock indexes drawing dojis and/or spinning tops on their respective daily charts, as I’ve just replied to Chris below –> THOSE CANDLES, THAT SILENCE WILL BE THE FIRST INDICATION THAT BULLS ARE IN THE WRONG PLACE AND THAT THOSE FIRST TO BAIL OUT BY RUNNING AWAY FROM THEIR LONG POSITIONS WILL BE TO GET HURT THE LEAST.

  26. AlexP

    time to buy gold is round the corner, not because the bottom of the gold bear market has been hit (it will not happen until USX goes into a buying climax in March to ensure a breakout above 100.72 – the prior YCH) , but because USX will shortly resume its intermediate cycle decline to retest and shakeout the upper trend line of the falling wedge quite visible on USX’ weekly chart.

    We should now sit and wait to charge onto the gold just as a cheetah puts itself into charging position, focusing on the goldish prey, head on …

  27. chris

    Yes Gary. Looks like Santa rally is here. Thereafter, Alex call gonna come true. Huge selling early January.

    1. AlexP

      I think the Christmas rally will fizzle out soon, well in advance.
      SPX’s daily chart will start drawing dojis and spinning tops soon, as early as this week.

  28. chris

    Wow, let’s see. I have tighten my dax to today’s lows. If hit, closed for the year. Dax is one scary market to trade. It goes up and goes down relentlessly. Never fight its intraday price action.

  29. AlexP

    New Kondratieff Spring is starting to show its buds on the Romanian real estate market.
    I am personally closing my trading account and going to move all my financial effort into buying residential land in the future suburbs of Bucharest, Romania, and particularly agricultural land to become residential land in 10-year time –> buying now for some 0.5 eur/sqm (or less than 5000 eur/hectare, 1=hectare=2.2 acres) and selling years later for scores of euros per sqm.

    I’ll go back into stock trading at the bottom of the bear market in 2018.
    Until then, though, I’ll keep on expressing my opinions here.

      1. AlexP

        no, no.
        There have been many indeed fleeing for Germany, Italy and Spain (not that many in UK, though –> it’s been only British media overplaying that “music”) but they were primarily cheap labor providers.
        Things are turning around though both politically and in the Justice system –> lots of politicians being put into jail, there is a strong cleansing process underway.

        Large infrastructure projects will gradually be implemented as governmental stewardship has reached a bottom in terms of quality.
        Not it is that kind of breach/mismatch between fundamentals and perception that marks major market turning points; a first glimpse into that is cast by the large net yield provided by the land (3.7%).
        Of course, that investment cannot be done indiscriminatingly …. one has to know what are the infrastructure plans and Urbanism Plans development of current communes around Bucharest (future suburbs, some of them act as are suburbs) and it happens for me to have inside info into one of those communes placed in the Northern part of Bucharest – which also happens to the wealthiest.

    1. AlexP

      I am with you, Simo. Either going long commodities or going long real estate in THE LONG TERM after extensive declines makes the same play of moving pro-inflationary (alongside shorting treasuries).

      Besides the extensive capital gain prospect, owning currently agricultural land in Romania brings in a rent after tax of some 3.7% a year in euros in contrast to a meager bank deposit or T-bond interest.

  31. Chris

    Gold dying again. Armstrong said whats the level to watch? 1040 ish isit? If it closes the month below that, new lows in 2016. Looks like on target

    1. tim

      I look for a short term bottom in the next few days, gld has broke their low in the last few minutes with getting to 95 – 98
      i still look for gdx to trade 120+ mil to signal a entry point

  32. Chris

    The thing agst gold is that it broke the low of 4th august. That was a long bar showing commitments to buy. If that level isnt supported, its a failed move.

  33. AlexP

    Tulip, the reasons for the USX buying climax in March are:
    – technical –> many reasons to enumerate but the easiest is that USX will be lifted off testing its upper trend line of the falling wedge; that test will come in early January (it will also be USX’ fall that will take stocks down soon from the current dead-cat bounce)
    – fundamental –> 2 reasons:
    1) renewed expectations for new FED rate hikes (traders will start asking “when and by how much will it be raised?!!” thus creating an uplifting sentiment fueling the bubble to come;
    2) ECB increasing the QE gun from EUR 60 bn/month to EUR 75 or so during this winter –> Draghi postponed this act simply as a act of collegiality towards his FED mates to give them room to perform the first rate hike yesterday.

    1. AlexP

      ….so to be clear on USX:
      – short term down into early JAN to test the upper trend line of the wedge
      – middle term up into buying climax from Jan into March –> there USX will print its YCH
      – middle to longer-term down from March until September/October as USX will be in its yearly cycle decline.

  34. David Silver

    Trades for open:
    Take profit in crude short (no man’s land)
    Long for US market play:
    HA
    ATVI
    Solar play:
    SUNE
    Chart/fundamental play:
    AXDX

  35. Chris

    The best case for spx is small range bar today, followed by a rally tomorrow. If tomorrow takes out todays low then not so good and alex call of a failed rally could be in play.

  36. tulip

    Alex, you are very interesting hope you stick around a lot.
    Am glad to hear they are cleaning up Romania….perhaps it will come
    over here.

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