27 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. zkotpen

    What I mean is, a cyclical bear should eventually test the 200 month SMA. 200 months is 16 years, 8 months of monthly data. The long (cycle) term SMA.

    Gary, you have mentioned the 200 period sample size regularly, especially 200 weeks and 200 days, which has gotten me to do my own style of analysis using those larger sample sizes. Analysis also works on 200 months and 200 periods on your INTRA-day chart — that’s where I can see the fractals in full glory!

    The 200 month SMA gives me a very clear picture of the 2000’s gold bull, with three key peaks: 2006, 2008, and 2011. These peaks do not make complete sense to me at the weekly and daily degrees — they’re only a partial picture. But it’s the 200 month SMA that really contextualizes the 2011 peak — the all-time high in gold looks almost like an aberration on the charts of lesser degree.

    Of course, that’s in the past. In the present, I apply the same analysis, on the weekly and daily charts, that lead me to believe that the current ICL and YCL are one more move down in the near future. The 200 day SMA is looking more like in a consolidation like we had to the May, 2015, peak. Likewise on the 200 week SMA, though the daily chart makes more sense to me.

    So that’s my real-time take. We’ll see how it pans out…

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to suggest that the 200 month average may be too slow to be of any significance. At no point during the bull market did gold bounce off the 200 month so there is no history of that average supporting price.

      I like the 200 week better. Gold bounced off that one in 08 and it’s now stretched a long way below it and nearing support at the 08 C-wave top.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would agree except gold never formed the bubble phase parabola that would be followed by that long consolidation you’ve diagrammed. Silver never even made it to new all time nominal highs. At the 2011 top gold was only 28% above the 200 DMA. A bubble/parabola should be 50-100% above the 200 DMA, especially in a volatile asset like gold. At the 1980 bubble top gold was about 200% above the 200 DMA if I remember correctly.

      So I don’t think we’ve seen the final secular bull market top. The duration of this bear has convinced everyone we have though. But then that’s what bear markets do. They convince investors that price can never go up no matter how bullish the fundamentals are. I remember seeing this same pessimism in oil in early 2007. Right before it rallied 200%.

      1. Mark

        Wow Gary,
        you are fast as a shark!!!!
        You have already commented!
        The two main reasons why you think we are still in a bull market are exactly the same of Martin Armstrong’s : silver and the lack of a manic phase.
        Let’s hope you are both right! 🙂

    2. Mark

      I’d like to read what you think about the Bud fox’s graph.
      This is my biggest fear,a secular bear market !
      I know that silver did not broke its secular highs ($50) but gold did so we could be already in a secular bear market.
      The silver failure to break resistance is also one of the reason why Martin Armstrong think that we are still in a secular bull market,but if we look at the 70’s bull market we can find the same waves and duration of the bull market that started in 2001.
      If we are still in a bull market this is going to last about 20 years!!!!!!
      This is double that of the preceding one,
      Does not it seem a little unrealistic?

    3. RayB

      Bud … how can you trust that chart since they didn’t have quantitative easing before 2007? After 2007 historical charts can’t tell us much to forecast our future since we are in a completely different world now in my opinion.

  2. though

    Bud fox,
    That is hilarious but very sad for me, it looks like my retirement plan! Haha!
    Merry Christmas to All…

  3. zkotpen


    There are things I agree with on your chart — but we’re not yet sure the degree of 1980 & 2011.

    The 1970’s bull was a much stronger wave up, in terms of percentage change in price over time.

    I would need to look at historic charts back to the early 20th century — wondering if they help contextualize the entire move up.

    There is the possibility, then, that gold bottomed in 1931, then had a wave 1 up at the USD devaluation in 1933. The gold standard was a long, flat wave 2. The 1970’s bull would be wave 3 up in this scenario; 2000’s would be wave 5. In such a scenario, a prolonged double zig zag or flat is possible. But then that would all be after the current 20 year move down on your chart finishes up:

    Will gold take off, as you suggest, or will it launch a multi-decade counter trend rally. If we humans can learn to tread more lightly on earth, not to tax the planet so much, demand for raw materials could continue to dwindle, just as easily as some believe it will take off like a rocket…

  4. Stefan

    I see three more lows before breakout and it would take another three years to accomplish this mission.

    There is a fibonacci frequence/pulse in the long term gold chart, visible to them who really look hard enough!

  5. Gary Post author

    The simple fact is that it’s getting harder and harder to manipulate the price of gold lower. After the initial stop run that crashed gold in 2013 it has taken 2 1/2 years to push gold a mere 140 point’s lower despite a huge rally in the dollar.

    There are a few big players in the paper market that are still able to control price but it has become very difficult to continue pushing it lower against the fundamental trend trying to take gold higher.

    I expect at some point we will see gold violently break the manipulative efforts and start to scream higher.

    The longer a market is forced to move against its natural trend, the more violently the break will eventually be. We saw this back in August when I said the Fed was just going to cause a crash by trying to artificially prop the market up against the natural pull of the 7 year cycle trying to push it down. The same will happen with gold only in the other direction.

    1. Stefan

      I didn’t say it was a substantial lower low, just three new lows with a high in between of course. Actually we are close to the final low in price but not in time.

  6. Chris

    I think gold is just a bounce. WHy? Cos the rally in US$ is not over. Like what Alex says, ECB next year gonna fire bazooka again. So, Euro gonna drop, USD rally. Gold is likely to face headwind again later.

  7. carlos

    Looking at all the charts (Bud’s chart) is interesting, but one must not forget the politics and fundamentals. I’m no expert economist, but the explosion that led to the 1980’s was the result of crazy inflation until Volker put it to rest. The 1980’s were boom times in America thanks to real leadership and better decisions(extended to the 90’s) Metals charts went into major consolidation. Today, is a different story. We have Yellen! Gary, you consistently talk about fed market manipulation. It’s clear that they are involved more then ever. Our fundamentals today are downright scary. Massive Debt and two parties that are spending away as recent as two weeks ago. Low interest rates and printing money to fuel an artificial stock market boom that will come back to haunt us. I think it will be much sooner rather then later. I’m with Gary on this. Bottom is coming soon but WHEN! 2016-early 17

  8. toni

    Steen Jakobsen dixit:

    “Now it’s again time to call for 1.23 but this time in EURUSD. In four of the last five Fed rate hike cycles, the US dollar has peaked around the first hike indicating that the direction of the US dollar is inversely correlated to the Fed rate cycle.”

  9. zkotpen


    I, too, see further downside, mostly based on the monthly charts. But not for a while. Both weekly and daily charts suggest one more lower DCL, to be followed by at least an intermediate rally — probably yearly or 3-yearly — before the move to lower lows resumes.

  10. Mark

    I’m still here to take advantage of your knowledge! 🙂
    Very few people noticed that in the terrible secular gold bear market from 1980 to 2001 there was a stellar bull market in Miners from 1993 to 1996!
    It was even stronger than the bull in Miners from 2011!
    And Gold during that period (’93-’96) barely doubled while gold stocks went to the moon.
    Could this thing happen again according to you? ( a HUGE bull market in Miners during a counter-trend rally in a secular BEAR market in gold).
    Judging from the EXTREMELY depressed chart of XAU/GOLD there could be some hope…..

  11. Mark

    I’m sorry,Gold did NOT doubled,it went from $300 to about $400 from 1993 to 1996 but the move in gold stocks was amazing!

    1. Will

      Yo Dave, looking at its weekly chart now, last week was a inverted hammer & this week (so far) is a bullish engulfing and if this pattern is holding by tomorrow closing…that would be sweet!

      Merry Christmas in advanced!

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