132 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. Dan

    So when do these endless criminal interventions fail? Not in our lives? If you think gold manipulation will fail soon, shouldn’t stocks also crash from all the pent up energy regardless of how many more trillions they print?

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually I think the same thing will lift both markets. Once QE 4 begins stocks and gold will go up together.

      That’s how it has been for most of the last 16 years. It was only when the manipulation forced gold into a bear market in 2013 that the normal relationship was broken.

      In a free market QE should flow into everything. In a manipulated market the powers that be prevented the normal flow of liquidity into gold and protected it in the stock market.

  2. Johan

    Hi Gary,
    I like what you say about buying a bull market at weekly stochastic oversold levels, that is a profitable strategy and we will all make good money if we are disciplined enough to actually do just that.
    However for me I feel you should cut down on the manipulation talk. Even if markets were as manipulated as you feel how does it help the analysis to constantly repeat that. I can tell you for me it takes away from your otherwise good and interesting analysis.

    1. Gary Post author

      In my opinion it is very important to recognize that no markets are free anymore, and part of ones strategy has to be an attempt to anticipate when and where manipulation will occur.

      Perfect example right now in gold. If you don’t recognize what is happening then you will probably end up stopping out if gold makes a lower low thinking this is a natural move and gold is about to crash.

      If on the other hand you understand what is happening and that it is just a few big players trying to run traders stops so they can build a large position before the next rally starts then you won’t freak out and sell. Instead you will use it as an opportunity to increase your own position for the next rally.

  3. harry

    not clear Gary in spite of all the narrative and analysis. Are you buying or selling gold or conventinal markets. For example, gold has been consolidating for many weeks now, what level, event or whatever would cause you to buy, or should one have a position in gold equities at this point waiting for the pop

    1. Gary Post author

      I think I made it pretty clear. Buy when the weekly stochastics are oversold.

      Gold and oil are oversold so I want to be long those markets.

      Stocks are not oversold and are deep in the intermediate cycle timing band. I don’t want to be short because stocks are being protected, but I’m not going to be long because the natural trend is for stocks to go down. So we end up with a whipsawing war between the natural trend to go down and the PPT trying to prop the market up. That’s not something I can make money in so I’m waiting on the sidelines in the stock portfolio for the next opportunity when the weekly stochastics get oversold.

      1. harry

        so you are presently long gold and oil and on the sidelines for spx/conventional markets. thanks for response

  4. harry

    just saw nenner on local business channel. The guy once again is predicting the end of the world for 2016. Fear sells, as someone here stated previously, and this guy is a master at it. The interviewer failed to recap his previous annual forecasts, which all predicted the same thing. Eventually he may be right, it’s like doubling down on a bet feeling eventually you get bailed.

  5. Mark

    you don’t like Armstrong and the ones who don’t buy the “market manipulation theory” ,but when you say that Gold and the stock market will go up together you agree with him 🙂

      1. Mark

        My point is that maybe there is not an “absolute truth” .
        We could have different scenarios play all at once.
        The different opinions are mixed and it’s not easy to see what will come.
        It’s impressive that the gold market sentiment is at its historic lows as well as the hui/gold ratio yet we are not able to see any serious bottom in PM until now.
        Either this is an historic once in a lifetime occasion to buy or this time really is different.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think Armstrong is trying to scam a lot of people into beliving he’s created this artificial intelligence that can predict the future. No one can predict the future, not man nor machine.

      Plus everything he says is so vague that you can take it almost anyway. Here is a classic example:

      “We are hovering around our year-end numbers in many markets from gold and the pound to oil and the Dow, which if it closes lower than last year 17823.07, then there is a risk that we will see further consolidation in 2016 and the Phase Transition will be far worse pointing to 2017-2020.”

      Tell me how this statement fits with his predition for Dow to go to 23,000 or even as high as 40,000?

      The arrrays have so many contradictory indicators that they can mean virtually anything.

      1. Mark

        You are absolutely right Gary about his contradictory indicators,but we cannot hide that he has been able to indicate that gold was in a bear market for all the past 4 years.
        He still think that there will be new lows but,at the same time,he thinks that gold,the stock market and the dollar will go up all together in the end.
        This is also what you think (except the dollar).
        I just hope that this damn bear market a day will finish because it is insane how much it has lasted.
        What I find really interesting is that Armstrong himself thinks that the gold secular bull market is not finished yet,this is contradictory for me but I can only hope that he will be right on this forecast.

        1. David

          Look I went to Armstrongs conference and just saw got his update on the year end closing. His model was predicting that if year end closed at 1044 or lower that we would see the bottom of gold in 2016. Since it closed at 1060 bottom will be drawn out …. He is predicting new highs in next few years though. I have seen his model Socrates being asked questions in the past and they were accurate . Anybody can sign up for free version to his model now. No obligation . His model calls for a war in 2017 , collapse of Euro, new high of US dollar 1.60 index as capital flows from Asia , Europe into U.S. Currency. He does not Breuer in manipulation . No scam. So the Oil market is being manipulated ? No too much supply ie Saudi not enough demand slowing down world economy .

          1. Mark

            Let’s say is almost of relief that one of the biggest name in the PM bearish camp thinks that we will see higher prices in the end.
            The problem is WHEN this damn bottom will be made!
            Anyway is evident that Armstrong thinks that Gold and Silver are still in a secular bull market and one of the main reason is that Silver did NOT make a NEW all time high in 2011.
            It would be interesting to know if Gary is agree on this topic.

    1. Gary Post author

      Every intermediate cycle low is identifiable with sentiment and technical levels. One just has to be able to pull the trigger once we get in one.

  6. chris

    You are all wrong about Armstrong. His indicators are not absolute. He provides timely updates. Above certain level bull, below bear, and very accurate.

  7. chris

    You guys expect when he said 3 years ago he said DOW 23k in 2015, it will definitely happen? No one could be that accurate.

    1. mike trike

      He shouldn’t predict things three years in the future then and have a movie made about himself called “The Forecaster”.
      If he was correct in his long range “forecasts” we would be hearing about it from all his followers and groupies on every forum.
      Since he is wrong in his long range “forecasts” we are told not to be critical since no one can be that accurate.

  8. chris

    Lovely Spx closes. Very weak. Kudos to Gary and Alex for forecasting a weak market. Happy and prosperous 2016 to all.

  9. MuffinTop

    I personally would not rely on a ‘daily/weekly’ Stochastic alone to enter a trade as they can remain oversold [or overbought] for an overextended period of time. That also includes the MACD. You need at the very least a combination of indicators, using different time frames, to improve the probability of a good trade — short term or long term. If you can bounce off ‘weekly support’, even better!

    Happy NY Bitches 🙂 and Much Love xox

  10. chris

    Who cares how Armstrong’s long term forecasts accuracy. I am a smart guy. I don’t have big ego. I use his information to my advantage. His frequent updates are accurate enough. Why have big ego to look at his somewhat bad, and overlook his many good.

    Yes he said gold going to 5k, but when prices are weak 3 yrs ago, he has been smart to adapt. He is still very right all these while.

    When I read his massage, I read knowing I could decipher the essence to make money, and I did. Many of you, read with doubts, and you did not read properly. Hence, u will never benefit from him

    1. mike trike

      I just look at COT charts for gold and make money every time. No need to read Marty’s mumbo jumbo.
      Sometimes I read my old Nostradamus books to gain insight on market direction. They are just as accurate as Marty’s predictions.

  11. Joe

    Johan added the qualifier of “in a bull market” to Gary’s buy on weekly stochastic oversold levels.
    Should this be a consideration?

    1. Johan

      Hi Joe,
      The answer is yes. It might actually work to some extent even in a bear market but not nearly as well. In a bear you sell stochastic overbought.

  12. chris

    Stupid Stevie, ask me to shut up?? Lol. His public blog have mentioned levels on Dow and gold, that levels to watch to key moments, and it is accurate. And beat, I made money off it, so I should shut up??? Lol. Use your brains man!!! Obviously, a person must be of certain intelligence to benefit from it! Lol

  13. chris

    Who cares if Armstrong really invest and makes money??? As long as he can help me make money, he is good. Remember the octopus who could predict soccer results. If it is true, you ask if it actually bets to make money??? Or would you use it to help you make money ?? Pls use brains!!! Lol

  14. chris

    Ok, I said enough. I shouldn’t argue, you guys are entitled to your opinion. Ok, you all win, yes Armstrong lousy. Don’t read his blog….. Hee hee… You don’t read, i read.

  15. Johan

    Hi Chris,

    Even though I like Armstrong and actually went to his congress I still feel making money directly from his calls is difficult. So how did you go about doing that?

  16. chris

    Example, during the August huge sell down, he said DOW closing below XXX will contunue to drop big. Next day dropped big. For gold, he said the rally to 1180 was a bounce. Only a close above xxx will mean a possible change in trend. I sold my longs around 1180-1190 I think.

    1. David

      He was named Forex award of the year for calling the break of the Swiss peg to Euro this past year. He called it before it happened . He is now calling for the British pound to fall as well. Gary has good analytics but cycles are not working .. Especially with gold. I think you need to get all the info ie Cot report , Ta, cycles , Ew etc … How have the cycles been for Oil? Are all commodities moving together? I respect Gary I think he works the hardest for his subscribers.

  17. David Silver

    Happy New Year Mr. Savage and blogsters
    Thank you for the generous subscription special
    Can’t find a better suited market timer for my trading strategy
    Best value bar none
    Lifetime for me

  18. David Silver

    US markets:
    Forming a bull flag formation for January
    Weekly trendline support wedge still intact
    Daily upward support trendline still intact
    40.05 min 43 54 max
    Secret’s in the CRB
    Miners holding up
    Secret’s in the XAU basing
    All contrarian views that will prove itself

  19. Chris

    Hope SPX 1967 soon. I am still short since 2070. Riding it. Likely use 20% to trade bounces to reduce risk.

    1. AlexP

      i am now only short stocks with 10%, rest cash –> i got stopped out yesterday of my long gold position at 1057 on a minor loss (average acquisition cost of 1063 commissions included).

      I’ll keep my cash powder dry to initiate long stock positions between JAN8-15

  20. chris

    Ya, great. I have observed that when stocks are weak beginning of the year, they tend to bottom or bounce big mid of January.

    1. AlexP

      good! that is extra [statistical] bullish data after mid JAN
      there are signs that this bear is already crippled –> by the end of next week, beginning of the other, most people will be convinced that the big bear has started and that SPX will go South big, but, they will be proven wrong, at least until mid March.

      1. AlexP

        LNKD will make a fantastic buy as it touches its 200dma next week.
        FB snd NTES will mske good acquisitions too while small caps SLP and CVT (cvent) show excellent relative strength against broad market during this intermediate decline.

  21. David Silver

    US Markets:
    Mirroring Feb 2014
    S&P potential 110 point rally
    January effect
    Election year
    PPT intervention
    $150 special:
    Only $12.50 per month even at $16.67 a no brainer for new subscribers!

  22. Chris

    Yes alex, and also Nflx looks like it could drop to 200 ma at 100-102. That would mean market could still drop some. So thats good news.

  23. David Silver

    The obvious never happens on Wall St
    For instance the USD now looks bullish i.e. target 103 – 104ish
    Markets will propel with her

  24. chris

    Yes David, USD bullish but maybe not yet. It has been making one week white bar, one week red bar. Consolidation for the next bull. So its nice tis week it makes white bar. Next week? Likely a red down candle. Making stocks down, gdx up.

  25. chris

    Also David, watch your longs like a hawk. There’s a saying in wall street, with false moves, comes fast moves. Googl, Amzn all broke to new highs and quickly drop back into range…. Ie, it’s a false move. So it may, just may, drop fast.

  26. David Silver

    The fact of the matter is:
    PPT activity since 2009, why quit now?
    Aug 24 and Sept 28 intervention
    Election year

  27. Will

    DXY (weekly) – looks like a “bear flag” to me, so, my take is it’s gonna be down next week…together with global equities…while miners could be a different story…

    Major indices $NYA, $SPX, $NDX…you name it, are all having a weekly “shooting star” closing last week. Is a multi-week down-drift on the card??? ???

  28. David Silver

    Finally got to watch “The Big Short”:
    Loved it if you’re a true investor like myself
    Girlfriend obviously hated it ?
    Commodities, USD and futures up ?

  29. David Silver

    Bond collapse:
    2016 same synopsis as 2007-8??
    Crude Alert:
    Flirting with triple top breakout aka $38.12 (influx point)?

  30. zkotpen

    I just watched The Big Short, twice. It ranks right up there with “The Gold Rush” for trading inspiration for me 🙂

    …took the time to transcribe an early scene, which sets the tone of the entire movie:

    Jared Vennett: The money came raining down, and for the first time, the banker went from the country club to the strip club. Pretty soon, stocks and savings were almost inconsequential. They were doing 50, 100, 200 billion of mortgage bonds and dozens of other securities a year. And America barely noticed as its number one industry became boring old banking. And then one day, almost 30 years later, in 2008, it all came crashing down. In the end, Louis Ranieri’s mortgage-backed securities mutated into a monstrosity that collapsed the whole world’s economy, and none of the experts or leaders or talking heads had a clue it was coming… But there were some who saw it coming. While the whole world was having a big old party, a few outsiders and weirdos saw what noone else could… These outsiders saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy and they saw it by doing something that the rest of the suckers never thought to do: They looked.

    Analyst: So do I get the job? I really think I could help the fund.
    Dr. Burry: Sure. You’re…?
    Analyst: David.
    Dr. Burry: David.
    Analyst: So I guess I’ll go find a desk. Is there anything you want me to work on for start…?
    Dr. Burry: Uhhh… yeah… (fidgets with his glass eye)
    Analyst: You could let me know later. I could come back.
    Dr. Burry: No… did did did did did you think it was strange when, uh, tech bubble burst in 2001, and the housing market in San José, the tech capital of the world, went up? That strange?
    Analyst: No, no, no. It’s housing. Housing is always stable, low risk.
    Dr. Burry: I want you to get me the, uh, top 20 selling mortgage bonds.
    Analyst: So you want to know what the top 20 selling mortgage bonds are?
    Dr. Burry: No, no, no, I want to know what mortgages are in each one.
    Analyst: OK. Aren’t those mortgages made up of, aren’t those bonds made up of thousands and thousands of mortgages?
    Dr. Burry: Yeah. (Death metal music begins playing)
    Analyst: Right away Doctor Burry.

    1. David Silver

      Haha you nailed it my friend!☺
      I’m pretty sure all of us here mirror ourselves to them
      The select few, the proud, the speculators
      I think I am 1/3 investors in my circle and know zero speculators period

  31. Will

    hey Dave,

    any insight on when SA will start its mining construction and have their first production date in mind? Can’t seem to find any information on this from their public disclosures…

    cheers mate!

    1. David Silver

      Man I am clueless on the fundamentals my friend and more like you in the charting world ?
      I’m not the biggest goldbug either just a specualtor of a trend setting up as Mr. Savage foresees

      1. Will

        Btw, just stumbled on “The value of gold and other metals” produced by Edison Investment Research…a very good report looking at fundamental predominantly on precious metals…

        Let me know your email if you’re interested…as this may be too fundamental for you…hahaha…

  32. Will

    FT AsiaPac index (weekly) just broke-down below its major resistance line from May 2015’s peak…a decisive close of this weekly bar below the above resistance line can see the index testing either Dec 2015’s low at 3.2% away or Aug 2015’s low at 5.2% away…

    Bear in mind this is a asiapac regional index so individual country index or stock can see heavier magnitude of drop!

  33. chris

    Ya, I saw weekly candles on major indices, having bearish tail at the top. Most likely going to drop to end of the week and next week.

  34. zkotpen

    David Silver,

    Cheers for bringing up the movie, mate!

    I just watched that movie a 3rd time 🙂

    There are so many details to fish out beyond the story. And that story is fascinating. So first viewing was to enjoy the story and the art. 2nd viewing was to mine for details. 3rd viewing was to answer lingering questions.

    I apply the same meticulous detail-hunting to my technical analysis.

    For example, whereas you describe the gold market as “erratic”, I see it as falling entirely within my own technical framework. I have alluded to this framework on this blog last year. You may have noticed a week or two ago that I differentiated my intermediate cycle wave count from that of AlexP & Gary. To refresh your memory, they maintain that the March and December, 2015, lows in gold were of intermediate degree, whereas I believe those lows were one degree lower than intermediate — daily cycle lows, or minor degree waves in EW terms.

    At any rate, I’ve done backtesting of my 3 most recent TA developments, but I’m really excited to see how they play out in real time — and that means now!


  35. chris

    Contrarian stance doesn’t apply to one day weakness. It’s foolish to say many are bearish for today, so you go long. Or that since all market weak you go long. Market can follow masses for days or weeks, til all get complacent, suck all in then contrarian!!! You could be bankrupt if you try to be contrarian too early

    1. David Silver

      Short term momentum play is the way I see it
      More times than not it pans out
      Quick one day trades to a few sessions
      Remember Thursday/Friday down?
      Smart money will flip gears

  36. Will

    Sitting in front of my terminal, it looks and it feels like Aug 2015, but it is not!!!
    It is a brand new freaking start of 2016…

  37. Will

    U.S equities will be down big into the closing…mind the “weekly shooting start” i mentioned…it will be for weeks…not days..let alone a day!


  38. chris

    Weeks? Not necessary. Likely till this week and next before a very big bounce to trap shorts. This market trap bulls, then trap shorts

    1. David Silver

      Hint hint wink wink
      Read between the lines
      If you can’t beat em’ join em?

  39. AlexP

    SPX not to fall below 1967 during this correction.
    On Thursday I’ll cover the short stocks trade.

  40. David Silver

    Bottom bull flag trendline wedge phenomena should hit @ open
    Gold event followed upward trend
    Same for crude

    1. AlexP

      Happy New Year, Chris!
      Even if I was stopped out of the long-gold trade on Friday at 1057 and gold didn’t close the year at 1115, I maintain my target for gold of 1145 by the end of this week or beginning of the next one when I think USX will bottom at 95.6.

  41. Dan smith

    Copper is tanking, gold and silver and all commodities will follow. In my opinion this will be a year to make money from shorting.

    1. AlexP

      it is a hybrid outcome of which the main input is NYSE Composite’s 200Wma — THE MAJOR SUPPORT OF MOST BEAR MARKETS !
      I expect a shakeout below 9781 though as it has happened on almost every occasion that a support was attained here.
      Even during bear markets when NYSE’s 200Wma was broken, those breaks (2001, 2008) did not occur without strong fights: lingering at the average, a STRONG bounce, a little bit of lingering and then penetration to deep levels and for prolonged periods.

      This is why I disagree with Gary’s take that the stock market would go down until SPX reaches its 200Wma –> SPX REACHING ITS 200WMA WOULD IMPLY NYSE COMPOSITE BREAKING ITS 200WMA WHICH IS NOT WARRANTED TO OCCUR!

      So, one should forget talking of SPX’ 200Wma, I think, but rather focus on NYSE’s

  42. David Silver

    Lower trendline target of previous lows set 11/16 and 12/14 which coincidentally are 26.13 points apart hence target from latest trough would give it a value of 1967.13. i.e. right translated trendline

  43. chris

    Happy new year Alex! Ok, gold can rally $20 a day, and repeat that for few days during big bounces. 1145, that makes 4 solid days of $20 rally. It could do this by next week with 2-3 days of pause in between. Just nice

  44. David Silver

    Sell entire miner stake in SA at open (take advantage of spike)
    Gold rallies are short and fickle
    Will reload on weakness with even better average in
    Buy another tranche of NFLX at open (chaotic open):
    Better average in
    Sell at next rally peak into (earnings 1/19) window
    Holding long crude

  45. Chris

    In addition to nyse, take note that indu also successfully tested 200wma. If spx test 200wma, indu would have broken below it’s 200wma. Making a bear market very likely. As long as spx stays above 1800-1850, i think this is still a bull market.

    Meanwhile, lets enjoy gdx bounces for this 1-2 weeks too. Likely bounce to 200wma, around $16 ish.

    1. AlexP

      yes, DJIA also harked back to its 200wma on all those occasions except that it has a small sample of companies, be they blue chips.
      NYSE makes my favorite index by far, it has it all: liquidity, larger reliability and extensive breadth.

  46. chris

    Oh, just read David’s call on selling miners. Me on the other hand am gonna average up on gdx. After tax loss selling, with gold strength, why be eager to sell. Miners when bounce usually bounce for few days and bounce hard!!!

  47. David Silver

    From past experience best bet to sell anything PM related on spikes and opposite on dips hence this morning’s US stock open wheras crude is building base up

  48. Dan

    Stop acting like you guys know where the market will or won’t bounce. Nobody knows. Still holding March SPY puts.

  49. zkotpen


    My daily and 2hr indicators on gold are showing it’s at or near resistance now — 1073-74 — forming a top at minute or minuette degree, where it’s short term oversold at this point. Invalidation would be 1081.79 (Dec 21 high).

    But these are details — the bigger picture is, the current move is corrective in nature

  50. Dan

    No one expects PPT to lose control. Staying short is the true contrarian trade. I see plenty of longs throwing out the bullshit excuse about the timing of a movie release about shorting, so the market can’t go down big.

    1. David Silver

      Yes indeed it’s all relative guys:
      Gold getting overbought
      US equities oversold
      Crude basing
      Gotta be quick and nimble to beat them to the punch
      Contrarian game always is the key
      Cyclical time and time again
      Nothing goes straight up
      Nothing goes straight down
      Except the sun

    2. David Silver

      The Big Short:
      Personalities of traits discovered in myself:
      Mr. Burry (analytical, anal and introvert)
      Mr. Baum (maniacally angry at the world due to past experiences)
      Mr. Heller and Mr. Shipley (represents fast success and risk taker mentality)
      Go watch it and find yourself

  51. Stefan

    “I think Armstrong is trying to scam a lot of people into beliving he’s created this artificial intelligence that can predict the future. No one can predict the future, not man nor machine”

    Yes of course it’s possible to predict the future, it’s not easy but it’s possible. There are analysts out there who is quite good at this. It doesnt work 100% but maybe 80-90%, choose a stock/index with a clean wave structure. Gold has a very clean and predictable wave structure. The good thing is, it doesn’t matter how much manipulation you put into it, the wave structure still work. Ok, if they decide to make a law to lock the gold price at $1050 for the next 10years, then the prediction will fail of course.

    My prediction for gold, a lowest low, late 2018/early 2019. If this happens Gary will you change your mind 🙂

    Talking about Mr Armstrong, he made a prediction back in 2007, from his movie The Forecaster, that a new stock crash will occur PI days after Februari 2007. If you add 3141days to Feb 2008 you end up at 1September 2015, pretty close 24th of August 2015 the stockmarket crashed haha he missed by one week, but thats good consider the wave length of 8,6years 🙂 The great irony is that he changed his mind and moved the prediction into 2017. I made a great deal of money on the 24th Aug -15, shorting S&P500.

    1. David Silver

      “Gold has a very clean and predictable wave structure”
      Far from it my friend perhaps the most difficult

  52. Chris

    Hee… hee….stocks oversold… but it plunged from 2030 to 1995. Gold overbought….. but i just saw another gold rush. Many more to go. The next $50-$100 is up man. So why look at the trees? Look at the forest man. After this rally, then revert to look at bigger forest…. that gold could likely head down again. I only wish Silver rally $0.5 ish today. If next few days, they are still weak, then I will cut.

  53. Ralph Wiederzane

    Looks like Gary is going to be exactly right on the S&P, it’s going to get smacked good in the New Year. Only a fool could go long here. Thanks G!

  54. Ralph Wiederzane

    Maybe I’m wrong, because it seems so obvious to me that stocks are going to get blasted in 2016. Run for the hills, don’t even buy miners as they will get cooked with the rest of the market, pieces of crap that they are.

    Might be a good year to park funds on the sidelines and go to the beach?

  55. Stefan

    Nope David Silver it’s very clean and logical imho, just look at the horizontal fractal fibonacci count, it is very clear ! Most analysts out there only look at price, vertical fib, but there is also a time, horizontal fib.

  56. Stefan

    I am talking about start/end bull/bear not day to day, week to week analysis. Very looong term !

  57. chris

    Great, don’t buy miners. I buy. Hee hee… I have been avoiding miners. But last Dec bought some and gonna add today. Seasonal strength for good bounce. Risk reward ratio is good here, plus using my short index profits to finance this miners play.

  58. chris

    Huh… Why gold can run big from zeal??? Who the hell listens to them. They have been entirely wrong during this bear and you recommend listening to them??? They perpetually say gold can bounce. Yes, I think can bounce, just that I would recommend reading their reasons

    1. tulip

      Zeal, adam hamilton is a very smart man. and an honest person.
      Have you ever read his subscription Letter??? …

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