22 thoughts on “December 4 Commentary”

  1. Gary Post author

    Gold has clearly completed a daily and almost certainly a yearly cycle low. I’ll do another video on that this weekend and of course I’ll cover it in more depth in the weekend report.

    1. Anthonyo

      Gary,
      One of the best presentations, concise, and clear I have seen on the mechanics and anatomy of PPT actions as presented by charts. Well done, and kudos to your Youtube debut.
      Great stuff.

  6. ted

    Okay Gary, nice analysis. But today is not just a whipsaw move or the same old same old. Today is a move that represents the beginning of the next move up. Parabolia has started on this date. Today, history is in the making.

    1. Gary Post author

      I kind of doubt it. The market is still too stretched above the long term mean. After a 6 year monster rally it’s going to take some time to consolidate before the next move higher. I believe you are going to get your bubble but it’s going to take longer than you want before it starts.

      That’s typically how markets behave. They always take longer than us short attention span humans want them too. We may have to see an extended multi-month handle (cup and handle pattern) form on the Nasdaq chart before the breakout can occur.

      1. Anthonyo

        Gary,
        Could You perhaps elaborate on the potential multi-months cup and handle pattern in NASDAQ?
        Perhaps via a video? It is very important, I think.

  7. William

    For traders, GDX, NUGT have hit the vertical resistance from the top of October after last night’s rally. I think Monday will see a pull-back, so, advise taking profit!

  11. victor

    “typically how markets behave”, but it’s not behaving typically and you know the reasons.
    What I see from my 3 + yr trading experience: we have a situation that is heating up every day, I mean hot money coming to US market for a “safe heaven” from around the world. If intr rate increase that move become even more intense. Where that money go? Salary – no, it didn’t increase for the last 5 yrs. All printed and coming money from abroad goes to stocks, thus, it quite possible as Ted said “parabola has started today”. So, higher stock prices and real estate, continued further overheating developed countries macroeconomics.
    Fed see this development and looking for a way to fix it. How? – they have to turn back massive dollar inflow. How? they need to harden monetary policy for US economy and keep “soft” for developed world, and interest rate rise is one of the steps they will do.
    Guys, Fed to stop dollar inflow going to crush stock market to make it an-attractive for foreign money and they will do that if risen int rate will not bring desired effect.

  12. chris

    Tis is a crazy market. But the trend is up. Shorting is only for nimble actions. Positioning should be on the long side. The 50 dma is ascending. The low of the right shoulder of the Inverted HS is not broken. Hence this market is innocent til proven guilty. So, buying pullbacks is still the right strategy for at least December.

    I was so tempted to short spx during the initial rally when it ran into short term reisitance. EG, when it’s up 10 pts, up 15 pts I wanted to short. Luckily I did not. Because tis is December, and major support has not broke.

  13. chris

    Gary, great video. It is clear to me that ndx is a cup and handle formation on its daily chart. Once it breakouts, I am sure it’s going to rally some. And by some, I meant parabolic. But my hunch kept telling me something is not right. Becos ndx has rallied huge over the past few years. It’s like a mini parabolic move already. When spx make decade highs on its first attempt in 2008, it crashes. Will ndx crash? Likely not as major index have not reached minimum price objective. EG. Dow 23k.

    So, if ndx is not crashing, neither is it making parabolic move so soon, what will happen? Well , like you said, a muti month cup and handle. If you look at its dacade chart, this level is like the right side of cup. So after its daily cup and handle breakout, it’s gonna rally few hundred points, then back and fill for a while to form a handle. I think this is the most likely scenario. So, I will try to ride the breakout for few hundred points and then trade it instead of holding on for parabolic moves.

    Tks for your great insight!

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