17 thoughts on “MARKET COMMENTARY DEC. 15

  1. Don

    One thing that is becoming clear is that your study of ‘cycles’ is absolutely worthless given that they almost always end up being described (by you) as being either “stretched” or more often, “failed”.
    Gary, if ‘they’ are constantly intervening in the markets to achieve the goal of keeping the stock market up, and I am not disagreeing on that issue, what is the point of even attempting technical analysis? Do you think that “they” are one day going to end the interventions and the markets will return to behaving in a more predictable manner?

    1. Gary Post author

      Cycles are still working very well in the stock market, you just have to expect these interventions.

      So rule number one for over two years now is to never short the market.

      Just wait for a cycle decline to happen and then buy. The Fed will protect your position. This is how we made 25% in the stock portfolio last year even though the market is flat.

    2. MuffinTop

      A couple more things you all might want to keep in mind:

      First, if you’re ‘only’ relying on cycles to trade and/or invest your money, then you are one screw short of crazy — don’t look to Gary for all the answers; he doesn’t have them! And two, we live in unprecedented times and so it’s important to be flexible and quick to react.. but the reality is that most people don’t have a sound trading strategy to begin with [that takes time and a shit load of patience] and everyone’s always looking for the easy way in and easy way out.. and when they don’t get it, they’ll be sure to bitch about it.. cuz that’s what we do πŸ™‚

      And three: Most of your money should either be sitting in cash right now or invested long-term wherever you are able to find value and strong fundamentals, starting with the Management team. And everyone, should have a chest full of Silver hiding in their backyard somewhere or stored outside of the US. #DougCasey

    1. Tom

      Depends on how long you have to live. It will likely move higher after another 15-20 years for sure. I’m not going to wait however. BTW, Gary I don’t really like your video commentary. Can you go back to the captioned charts?

  2. Tech_trac

    I await the capitulation by a prominent perma-bull to utter the unthinkable & finally declare a secular bear market
    Using the 1980 peak as the basis for expecting a final leg up in AU to $2300 adjusted for inflation is insane!
    Who is to say if AU was not so overbought that that hi @ $850, which lasted what hours? days? will ever be exceeded until the whole commodity sector recovers?

  3. Don

    Gary, I have another question. The German DAX and Euorstoxx indexes were up 3% today, notably, a far bigger move than the S&P. Is the FED PPT interfering with those indexes also or do the European exchanges have their own PPT interventions? If that is the case, why would they want they be intervening at exactly the same time as the FED and for what purpose?
    BTW, I agree with TOM. I much preferred the captioned charts that could be reviewed in less than a minute. Perhaps the majority prefer the videos. Not me.

  4. ernest hofstatter

    Gary, may i ask you why you are no longer on the Korelin econom.report?
    I enjoyed your independent outlook.thanks, ernest

  5. MuffinTop

    Gary — could you just try and please everyone..? Seriously that’d be pretty awesome. Oh! And I don’t think that it’s enough that you’re providing this service for free, from now on.. you should pay us for reading your articles and especially for listening to your ‘so incredibly’ lengthy videos, haha πŸ™‚

    I wanna go on and rant.. but for once, I shall abstain from it.

  6. Don

    Muffin: What is your problem (yes, you definitely do have one) ? Gary specifically asked for feedback on the video format.

    1. MuffinTop

      Gary spends hours putting this research together — for free on this blog! — and you [and others on occasion] will come along and drop some derogatory comment like: “your study of β€˜cycles’ is absolutely worthless”.. which is kinda like giving someone a small kick in the balls. That’s when guys like me pipe up with a couple of sarcastic comments. I think that’s fair and I enjoy it.. brightens up my day πŸ™‚

  7. RayB

    Was MuffinTop just being sarcastic? I like Gary’s videos as they tell us more what he’s thinking then just reading a captioned chart .. each has their pros and cons.

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