69 thoughts on “OUTLOOK 2016

  1. tim

    I look for a short term bottom in gold the next few days, gld has broke their low in the last few minutes with finally settling to 95 – 98
    i still look for gdx to trade 120+ mil to signal a entry point

  2. AlexP

    yes, Gary, range-bound movement indeed.

    USX and SPX have been in positive correlation for a couple of years and it is normal to be that way now that we are not in a Kondratieff winter.

    Thus, USX and SPX will move off their ICLs in the first half of JAN to new highs in March but …. stocks will have a problem moving up once USX commences its yearly cycle decline in spring –> stocks can move higher as USX will be down provided that USX’ South movement will be shallow and mostly range-bound but that stocks’ growth will prove tedious and prone to many failures as you’ve pointed out.

  3. AlexP

    stocks already showing fatigue in today’s trading!
    STOCK BULLS, BE WISE AND GET OUT IN CASH WAITING TO GO LONG IN THE METALS AND COMMODITIES AT ANY MOMENT!

    1. Gary Post author

      Stocks were short term overbought after the three day rally. They will probably have to trade sideways for a few days before another leg up can happen.

      1. AlexP

        Gary, I would say: “stocks […] trade sideways for a few days before another leg DOWN can happen.” 🙂

        1. Gary Post author

          If the S&P can’t close back above the 200 then I’m going to have to agree with you. We got knocked out of our long TQQQ trade at break even this morning. Back on the sidelines for now.

    1. Gary Post author

      0 chance of that happening anythime soon IMO. It’s still stretched way too far above the 200 week moving average. Sideways for the dollar this year also.

  4. Gary Post author

    I said in last nights report that I was nervous that gold had been set up yesterday to sucker in longs for fleecing and that is what happened. This was put in play when the momentum was immediately killed last Monday. I had a suspicion that gold was being setup for another attack into year end.

    Be patient. There is probably a bloodbath phase coming towards the end of the year and then gold can start an intermediate degree rally.

    1. tim

      gld just set a new low and should go further to 95-98 before this turns, i call that a blood bath scenario

    2. Bill in Tokyo

      Gary – “… and then gold can start an intermediate degree rally.”

      Intermediate degree rally?

      CYCLES ARE BACK! CYCLES ARE BACK!

  5. chris

    The best case for stocks is a narrow range followed by a rally tomorrow. If tomorrow takes out today’s low, then Alex failed rally scenario comes to play

  6. chris

    Heck it, sell first take profit ask questions later. What I disliked from yesterday’s US rally is that it’s xlp leading instead of xly. This is not signs of bullishness

  7. victor

    Look…
    November 7, 2015 at 1:03 pm
    For gold I expect:
    – Monday to set a lower low and then to start going up
    – Tuesday swing low
    – sometime btw Friday – Wednesday the other week (i.e. btw EU GDP reps and FOMC minutes) to set its DCH
    – resume its IC decline and shakeout the line drawn by Gary at some 1040.
    If I were a commodities trader, I would NOT trade counter-the-trend –> GOLD IS STILL IN A BEAR MARKET AND IN A CLEAR INTERMEDIATE CYCLE DECLINE.
    Rather I would wait for USD to set its DCL and then to hunt the swing high in gold to set my shorts, but no long in gold !!!
    That’s what I did and now smiling…
    I’m crying over you Alex…

  8. chris

    I am seeing what Alex is seeing. Tks for highlighting. PM usually bottom in dec to have at least a big bounce in Jan.

    1. tim

      that is right as the last few years a year end low and a mid summer low is usually a good bet.
      look for gdx to get to 11.50 to 12.50 and that would make a range of ngut to be at 15 to 18

  9. victor

    “I’ll go back into stock trading at the bottom of the bear market in 2018.
    Until then, though, I’ll keep on expressing my opinions here.”
    Please, visit Gary’s blog time to time Alex…

    1. AlexP

      🙂 🙂 Thank you very much, Victor! You are very nice with me.
      Actually I am quite impressed, you’ve copy-pasted some of my posts and you’ve seen them working through !!! 🙂 That’s more than a compliment, Victor!
      Thank you again, Victor!

      PS: yes, I will. It gives me great pleasure. Gary’s blog was the first to read and it is one of the only two that I am reading. I said it before and I am saying it again: I am grateful to Gary for having been my first teacher in cycles years ago!
      This is also why this blog is the only place where I express my opinions publicly [i.e. except to a couple of interested friends].

      1. victor

        Sorry, can’t add/share anything to your market knowledge ( night job + two grandkids) gives me little time to study anything. But, in 5yrs trading I started feel more/less market pulse (not like you of course) that’s why I traded gold up to FOMS day, good, sold it just before the Foms release.
        I copy-paste your market projections for future reference. Your vision require many years trading and sweat and loses + things that a few can have given by nature. Thank you very much Alex for sharing.

  10. chris

    One thing that is working against the stock market super bull run is this. Go look at Russell 2k. Monthly. Looks like head and shoulder. It’s under going a right shoulder process. That makes 2016 a year of consolidation in the best case scenario

  11. AlexP

    USX=99.34 is a strong wall for bears’ defense!
    USX should retreat through the rest of today’s session to leave a long upper wick.
    Hence, going gold long is just one step away –> just waiting for confirmation that 99.34 is a concrete wall for USX that can be overrun tomorrow solely on a shakeout healthy for USX bears

    1. AlexP

      …with USX down at 99.27 a revisit to some 99.33 is in books and a formidable bulls-bears fight there before reversing trend downwards for good

    1. Tom

      ?? Are you implying long or short? I see a case for either. I’d take a look at some of the iron producers like RIO or BHP. Those charts looking like near term bottoms if you ask me.

  12. Tom

    I figured today Gary would give us gold and miners chart displaying how late it is in the cycle and how buying should start.
    Maybe Gary is waiting for $1k to break now.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s actually early in the daily cycle and it appears gold the current daily cycle really did top on day 1.

    1. AlexP

      sorry, Don, pls do not take personally but I prefer to use only Gary’s interface.

      Anyway, I can figure out you may want to assk me about procedure.
      As I’ve said before there is nothing special in what I employ –> everything I know is drawn from publicly available data either on the Internet and out of trading books.
      it is classical technical analysis + intermarket analysis + fundamentals + PRICE ACTION (truth usually dresses in its simplest attire), all crammed in one brain.

      What i’ve noticed is more of a clinical issue: if the human brain (in my case my brain) is bombarded day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year with loads of candles, patterns, circumstances as mixes of technical & fundamental data that have brought forth to various outcomes, then…somehow…I have no idea how…..the brain (my brain) develops an incredible forecasting ability.
      Of course this process it has its errors, its slippages but IT WORKS.
      It is something amazing, beyond my comprehension.

      PS: haven’t it ever occured to you to wake up in the morning struck with the solution to a problem that had bugged you the previous days ??!! Maybe it is the same brain process at work here.

  13. Atkjhi

    Alex

    A year ago you said you went huge into SLV 2017 leaps. Silver is lower today than it was a year ago. Still positive on the PMs?

    1. AlexP

      sorry, that was a different “Alex” 🙂 I can figure out that there are many.
      I am Alex from Bucharest, Romania 🙂

  14. Atkjhi

    You’re not the same AlexP that posts on Garys paid site? There is someone that uses the exact same alias.

  15. victor

    “What i’ve noticed is more of a clinical issue: if the human brain (in my case my brain) is bombarded day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year with loads of candles, patterns, circumstances as mixes of technical & fundamental data that have brought forth to various outcomes, then…somehow…I have no idea how…..the brain (my brain) develops an incredible forecasting ability.”
    That’s what I mean … a few can develop it or it ‘s natural. See my previous post pls.

  16. RayB

    Does anyone worry after the PM’s start their bull phase that it will then be too late to buy physical PM’s as they will be sold out due to big money buying up all? It has sucked buying PM’s as the price keeps falling, but maybe this is our only opportunity to buy physical PM’s before they make their turn up?

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      I used to worry about it, but don’t now because every month I call the local bullion dealer, to see if they are aware of any unusual shortages upstream. I have 2 triggers to buy bullion: a) the monthly $GOLD chart, and b) if there are shortages. Also, worst case, if there become shortages, we can always buy bullion-backed ETFs like PHYS and CEF.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        … and, I’ll add that if you believe like me that we’re closer to a bottom than a top for $GOLD, then maybe buy 5-10% bullion HERE, as long as you’re willing to HOLD through possible lows ahead. Even 800 gold. This is Armageddon insurance. I’m thinking to do this, but have not yet.

        1. RayB

          ya i buy and hold physical for long term … for when the shtf … I’m just happy I have some .. feel sorry for others that will wait too long and not get any.

  17. Bill in Tokyo

    TA monkeys – on 1 hr charts, I see pos div in the MACD (I use PPO) for GDX and GDXJ (tho not GLD). Bounce ahead?

  18. Atkjhi

    I think today just shot Ave Gilbert’s EW credibility to hell. Yesterday he said the rise in gold negated any possibility of a lower low in gold this year and bear markets must end on 5 waves down so that was negated as well.

    And now Gilbert is getting into public pissing matches with GATA’s Chris Powell.

    1. tim

      gilbert is just another talking head. if i had a dollar for every time he has mentioned the top he called and now the bottom that is coming i wouldn’t have any worry at all. he brags on seeing market changes without paying attention to any news.

      1. Gary Post author

        He also likes to make his calls after the fact. He’s always willing to tell you about a perfect call he made 2 weeks ago, but rarely ever sticks his neck out in real time, at least from what I’ve seen.

        1. tim

          gilbert also claims there is no manipulation at all in the markets, well the guy the feds arrested this morning should be enough proof that the markets are full of it, from the individual to the banks and then the feds themselves.
          i’d like to put in my 2 cents and make my appreciation to gary for making this forum available and the effort he puts into it.

  19. AlexP

    USX has confirmed 99.34 as a fabulous wall of defense for bears!!

    BUY GOLD NOW!
    NB: Stop loss must be there

    1. Bill in Tokyo

      Not me, not yet.

      $HUI has been knocking on HELL’s DOOR (105) some *seven* times now.

      I think we plummet into hell 1st, before we head to earth and then heaven.

  20. jragusa

    Tax loss selling in PM and miners in progress. Normally, this ends third week of Dec (~ 15-22 Dec). Initiated a 1/3 position in GDX at today’s close. Will add another 2×1/3 during next week – 10 days.

  21. Atkjhi

    The only thing I know is that we are closer to a bottom in gold than we were last December. I just hope I’m not saying the same thing next December.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think it’s a good possibility for at least the first half of the year and maybe all year or however long it takes for the Fed to begin QE4.

      1. Bill in Tokyo

        Gary, one side thing I’ve noticed is that Japan’s CB is buying US treasuries – sorta looks like the US influenced them to print yen and buy US treasuries – sort of a back door QE. I think the amts are significant. Have no idea if Europe’s CB is doing this, too. In short, maybe the US is still in a QE environment? That would explan to me the fuel that’s keeping the S&P up, and would propel it higher.

        1. Stefan

          Remember the esoteric trendline a talked about a couple of times. it’s still very much valid sitting at 2130ish for SPX it has never been broken in history 🙂

  22. Bud fox

    Tim Knight says it best.

    “In spite of the countless articles on ZeroHedge and innumerable appearances by the likes of Peter Schiff on television, all the good reasons to own precious metals for the past four years have been utterly urinated upon.”

  23. David Silver

    Friday:
    Opposite across the board:
    USD down
    Gold rebounds
    Crude rebounds
    US Stocks rebound
    One day doesn’t change the FED PPT mission
    Holding:
    HA
    ATVI
    AXDX
    SUNE
    Adding:
    AXDX
    SUNE
    Dependecy on overnight trading:
    Crude long on weakness
    Crude short on strength

    1. AlexP

      yes, gold will go up big from here.
      Yesterday’s close on gold was a nasty one since it delivered the wrong [bearish] signals. in the end it will prove as other data suggest it to be – just a post-FED-rate-hike shakeout

  24. AlexP

    USX indeed rose again to 99.33 and had a fight there before rolling over, just as predicted.
    Even more beautifully, while falling USX left behind an intraday BEARISH ISLAND REVERSAL pattern.

    Since the market is numb with scare now on gold, retailers being affraid even to consider going long gold, what better, safer trade can there be in town than LONG GOLD ?! 🙂

  25. David Silver

    Crude Premonition (FWIW):
    Temp bottom 12/14 (wedge trendline support)
    Timing band expires in 3 weeks
    Look for 40 wma for target (trendline resistance)
    Target 1: $43.54 (historical support/resistance)
    Target 2: $48.87 – $49.11 (historical cluster zone)
    Eventual downside target: $32.99
    Action:
    Buy open long crude or
    Limit pricing via crude $34.53 for best bet
    Possible equity reduction or elimination to fund new revelation

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