44 thoughts on “POSSIBLE SHORT TERM TRADE LATER IN THE WEEK”

  2. Jay

    Now, all of a sudden, it appears that at least a retest of the all-time low may still be in the cards for GDX after all.

    1. William

      That may not be the case…e.g., gold bottomed in Oct 2008, crude oil bottomed in Dec 2008…a good two months gap.

  8. Anthonyo

    Theory on what happened to Euro and Gold last week:

    Why? The Fed wanted the Euro to go UP before the Fed raises the rates in US. Why? Because the Fed does not want a very strong USD as it will be bad for US economy and stocks.

    Also: the Fed wants to drive down USD as much as they can, so the spike USD will get after they rais ethe rates will not be high.
    If you drive USD down, the spike will start at a lower level.

    Same thing with US stocks, the Fed/PPT driving Up stocks as much as possible so the jolt down eventually due to rising rates will not be as bad.

    So why did gold spike up $25 last Friday? Well, if Euro goes up, gold goes up. Just a reaction of gold to Euro, and lower USD.

    It’s funny since by trying to drive up Euro before Dec 16th, the Fed is inadvertently driving gold price higher too! Which show how desperate the Fed really feels now.

    Hence, I think the spike in gold will not last so long.

    1. jack

      “Why? The Fed wanted the Euro to go UP before the Fed raises the rates in US. Why? Because the Fed does not want a very strong USD as it will be bad for US economy and stocks.”

      this is nonsense from trader dan who is a stupid gold basher. The Fed wants to lift US dollar as high as possible so as to kill all emerging markets and get liquidity out to US market. They succeeded in hair cut of emerging markets a few times before. But they may not succeed this time which will cause financial collapse of US.

  9. David Silver

    May Day CRB:
    Just broke major support set back in 1974
    Next support @ 130
    Charts don’t lie

    1. William

      Back in 2008, CRB only bottomed in Feb 2009, i.e. 4 months after Gold and 2 months after Crude oil…the interplay among all the commodities are so different.

    2. David Silver

      With correlated variables of relevance my arithmetic has crude eventually beyond my 32.99 prophecy to 27.66 when and if the CRB bounces off 130.
      Saudi’s mission
      Gold retrace to 50 FIB 1065.60
      Target 1146 40 mid Feb 2016
      USD final top 99.15 (.25 away today)
      US Indices weak across the board
      Pressure energy sector
      Gold final frontier?

    3. David Silver

      With correlated variables of relevance my arithmetic has crude eventually beyond my 32.99 prophecy to 27.66 when and if the CRB bounces off 130.
      Saudi’s mission
      Gold retrace to 50 FIB 1065.60
      Target 1146 40 mid Feb 2016
      USD final top 99.15 (.25 away today)
      US Indices weak across the board
      Pressure energy sector
      Gold final frontier?

  12. AlexP

    Morning, Gary!
    I personally do not think NYA to touch its fib38 unless an extended bear market occurs.

    NYA and DJIA were the only indexes to have retraced to their 200Wma on AUG24 (unlike SPX) so that any fall of NYA below 9800 would be solely on a shakeout AND DEFINATELY WILL NOT PRODUCE A LOWER LOW and if it does for a low probability, then with the 200wma broken, the bear market will be here through all 2016 –> fairly unlikely though.

    Thus, I would see JAN8 and NYA’s and DJIA’s touches of their respective 200Wmas as a cumulated buying signal.

    1. Gary Post author

      The 7 year cycle is pretty long in the tooth for a bear market to be starting. I’m just looking for a really scary correction to reset 6 years of sentiment and set the stage for the next leg up. And possibly panic the Fed into QE4.

      1. AlexP

        That QE4 will come, Gary, but not so soon, not as early as this winter, not until late 2017/early 2018.
        Until then the market will produce a couple of new historical highs on choppy trading as you have also pointed out and will render a shortened multi-year cycle before falling in the 2017-2018 bear market where monetary policy will be relaxed anew.

        As to the ICL this winter, it should be shallow –> it is aimed to accommodate weak bulls to the new FED policy of soft monetary contraction while smart money will use it as an opportunity to buy.

  13. chris

    The Junk bond market is flashing dangerous signs. Seems like going to make new lows and break down. Crude carnage is causing big pain for those companies. How will these affect markets?

      1. David Silver

        At minimum a repeat cascading fall when OPEC last year 4th quarter left production unchanged
        Rich and powerful will get their ways

    2. Al

      Agree Chris. Mentioned it a couple of weeks ago as part of the jigsaw. There is another big one that has started in one area of stocks the last week or two as well. Very high likelihood that a big correction is coming.

  14. Dan

    I love how you guys and people like Armstrong outright dismiss the possibility of another 2008 just as the Fed is about to tighten policy. Confidence in central banks is at delusional levels and, as commodities have proven, a deflationary implosion is entirely possible.

    1. Gary Post author

      I doubt they will make the same mistake twice. If the 7 YCL can just finish the correction and at least drag the NYA down to the 38% Fib then the Fed will throw in the towel and start QE4.

      1. Sean North

        Disagree, Gary. The Fed cannot signal it’s intention of raising interest rates today and do a 180 with QE tomorrow. It would lose whatever veneer of credibility it has left.

  15. David Silver

    Correction:
    50 FIB Gold 1066.85
    Holding overnight
    Should propel very very soon amongst this turmoil
    Perfect storm brewing

  20. pepe le pew

    Hmmm… since option traders generally lose, would this ratio not imply another leg down in GDX?

  22. AlexP

    closed my shorts on marginal profit – dont like price action.
    i maintain my bearish stance but it is too risky to short stocks now based on how they closed yesterday and have moved today.
    shorting treasuries is getting riper and riper for next week.

      1. AlexP

        you’re welcome, Victor! yes, indeed, we have to see…technical data is getting mixed, there is a struggle underway that lowers the probability of a short-term short trade in stocks.

  23. David Silver

    USD rolling over again (2 step theory)
    Gold shooting higher again (2 step theory)
    Crude topping (2 step theory)
    US Indices topping/rolling over (2 step)

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