37 thoughts on “RECENCY BIAS

  1. David Silver

    Mr. Savage,
    Same theory taking place in metals/miners now for a 3 month run?
    Wouldn’t the fundamentals need to change on crude before any kind of CRB bottom?

    1. Gary Post author

      I think they’ve already changed. The rig count has dropped by 60% and fracking wells deplete much faster than a normal well.

      1. tulip

        Gary, I beg to differ.. the storage is getting fuller… the wells are continuing to pump…..sure- the production will slow but it really hasn’t.. rig counts aside…LOTS of stored oil globally..inc the mid east where it is flowing…

  2. Gary Post author

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say if gold and miners can surge higher again tomorrow then we won’t have to worry about the FOMC meeting. On the other hand if the bears force a flat or slightly down day tomorrow that slows the momentum, then there is risk of another hit after the FOMC, and maybe even an undercut low.

  3. William

    DavidS,

    Watch out for miners action today. NewCrest Mining gaped up today but is looking to put in a shooting star upon the close…so, very likely that the miners’ space will see a pull back today!

      1. William

        Not looking at the pull-back target, but, 38.2% Fibo. definitely looks highly possible, i.e GDX at $14.10-ish…

          1. David Silver

            William your pullback mirrors mu thoughts!
            Gonna watch the open and may sell on a pop then buy limit orders on NUGT
            Or hold it all depends if a soft open or not
            Thinkin crude will print the CRB a fresh new 52 week daily low tomorrow hence a penetration through 37.75 with ease eventually i.e. 32.99?
            Thanks buddy!

  4. AlexP

    Gary, you’ve been proven right: gold didn’t put its DCL on NOV18 but extended it into Thursday DEC3. Well thought!

    1. Gary Post author

      I like to use the 10 foot rule. If I can’t stand 10 feet away from my computer and clearly identify the DCL then it isn’t a DCL.

      DCL’s need to change sentiment. Little 1 or 2 day pops that don’t break any trend lines usually don’t qualify as a DCL.

      Now we have to see how gold behaves this week. If they keep price suppressed then there is risk of another attack after the FOMC and maybe another undercut low.

      If price can continue to surge higher this week then we won’t have to worry about the PTB crashing price back down to new lows after the FOMC meeting.

        1. Gary Post author

          Sounds like nonsense to me. Cycles are driven by sentiment. They have to bounce at least far enough to affect sentiment. Usually that means breaking the cycle down trend line.

  5. AlexP

    Consumer Staples were the driver of SPX’ Friday upthrust and it is only them who still show a green number as SPX admits to its having been on dead-cat bounce since NOV16 –> this sector rotation is a major confirmation (not a signal anymore) that stocks have been entrenched in intermediary cycle decline since topping at 2116 on NOV3.

  6. Tom

    I’m longer than Ron Jeremy right now…..in miners.
    What I’m doing is taking the position that the Fed DOES NOT raise rates so an upside surprise should be huge in this sector. Lots of terrorism, all commodities screaming deflation, U.S. economic numbers are so-so but nothing to really say “hey what a great economy!” In addition, global economy is terrible. I don’t think the Fed will raise rates therefore I’m long and strong right now. Some of my favorite miners: RGLD, NEM, EXK, ABX and RIO. Some of these have good dividends too!

    1. AlexP

      apologies but this sounds like gambling roulette rather than trading 🙂

      VIX stands ready:
      – to breakout both over its 50dma and over its declining trend line and
      – to finish its hesitation revealed by its ribboning the 200dma for 2 months already.

      SPX=2104 was an impenetrable wall for bulls

  7. tulip

    read srsrocco report .. on fundamentals & rebuking avi gilbert

    Gold & Silver Prices Will Surge On Fundamentals Not Technical Analysis
    Filed in Energy, Precious Metals by SRSrocco on December 6, 2015 • 17 Comments

  8. David Silver

    US Indices bearish sentiment should exacerbate crude and energy.
    Gold support 1174 (buy on dips)
    Should’ve sold miners at open then rebought (William nailed it ?)
    Holding till target or time window draws near

  9. AlexP

    LNKD in a free fall, as I had anticipated 🙂 to touch $221 by early JAN.

    FB itself, the blue of the bluest, will dive below its 50dma and shakeout its breakout pivot of $96 by early JAN.

  10. AlexP

    swing low in T-notes and T-bonds; time to re-short treasuries will come soon –> as soon as FOMC stmt gets published 🙂

  11. William

    A huge 60mins hammer on XAU and a smaller hammer on GDX, probably means that the overnight correction is over, with a mean to continue precious metals’ ascend supported by its all-time-low commercial short positions!!!

    Enjoy!

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